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Quarterly Economic Update: January-March 2021

14 April, 20217 April, 2021 Updated on7 April, 2021 COVID-19, Economy, Investing

The global COVID-19 jab-fest gathered pace with some countries, including Israel and the United Kingdom, achieving high rates of immunisation. However, the rollout has had some issues. Rare side effects linked to the AstraZeneca vaccine saw a number of countries suspend its use for a period of time, and Australia was slow off the mark with its immunisation rollout. The longer it takes to vaccinate the world, the slower the economic recovery. Hot property Pushing COVID-19 off the front pages was the big jump in residential property prices. Nationally, CoreLogic’s home value index jumped 5.8% for the quarter. Sydney led the jump with a 6.7% lift. In March alone the index rose 2.8%, the biggest rise in 32 years. Most of the action was on the first home and owner-occupiers front, though investor purchases were also up. The main fuel being added to the property price fire is ongoing low interest rates. With the RBA indicating rates will most likely remain low for years, that could continue to inflate property values and see more people priced out of the market. Helping to fuel the market was good employment numbers. Seasonally adjusted, the ABS reported an unemployment rate of 5.8% in February, down from 6.3% in January. However, this counts people on JobKeeper as employed. Taking this into account, Roy Morgan put unemployment at 13.2% in February, with 21% of the workforce either unemployed or under-employed. Blocked artery In late March the container ship Ever Given provided a graphic example of how small things can have a huge impact. Strong wind gusts saw the giant ship wedge itself bank to bank across the Suez Canal, one of the world’s main shipping arteries. Suddenly 30% of world container shipping ground to a halt. Fortunately, the ship was freed after a few days, and the backlog of ships was cleared a few days after that, but it was a stark reminder of how vulnerable large parts of the economy are. Key numbers The pace of recovery in the local and international share markets slowed during the quarter as prices crept close to or exceeded their pre-pandemic levels. The S&P/ASX200 rose 3.1%, trailing the MSCI All-Country World Equity Index, which was up 4.2%. Tech shares ran out of puff with the NASDAQ only gaining 1.4%, while the S&P500 surged late in the quarter to gain 6.1%. The outlook Many countries are experiencing third and fourth waves of COVID-19, and it’s a fair bet that the virus will continue to dictate the way we live for some time to come. But it’s not the only game in town. US President Joe Biden has taken climate change off the back burner and moved it front and centre. That means our government and businesses will need to pay it a lot more attention too. Expect carbon tariffs to become a hot topic. On the local front, with interest rates all but ruled out as a tool for managing the residential property boom, talk is turning to the use of regulatory methods to dampen demand. These could involve requiring bigger deposits or limiting the rate of credit growth. And with JobKeeper now wound up employment figures will come under close scrutiny. Expect to see a jump in unemployment this current quarter. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Shares are more than numbers

3 June, 202021 December, 2020 Updated on21 December, 2020 Finance, Investing

[fsn_row][fsn_column width=”12″][fsn_text] Whether it’s by direct purchase, via a managed fund or through superannuation, most Australians hold some form of share investment. Many of us are aware that if the numbers in the finance report on the evening news are mostly green that’s good and if they’re red that’s bad, but beyond that we give little thought to what shares are and why we should take an interest in them. What’s a share? When you buy shares, you aren’t just buying a piece of paper or a digital entry on an electronic register. You are actually buying a physical part of a company. It might be a tiny fraction of the total value, but it still provides you with certain rights and responsibilities, including the opportunity to participate in the direction of the company. Shares are real assets and depending on the size and stability of the company, you can even borrow against them. The benefits For most people, the most important aspect to share ownership is being able to share in the profits and growth of the company. For ordinary shares, a portion of the profit is usually paid out via twice-yearly dividends. Some profits may be retained to fund the growth of the company, and this should be reflected in an increase in share price over time. These capital gains can be realised by selling the shares. The downside is that, if the company does poorly, investors may see a fall in the value of their shares. Getting involved Beyond receiving dividends and (hopefully) watching the share price increase, many investors take little interest in their shares. But shareholders also enjoy the right to have a say in the running of the business, by voting for or against the appointment of specific directors and on resolutions at the Annual General Meeting. One share equals one vote, so large institutional investors such as superannuation funds usually have the greatest say, but even small investors can turn up at the AGM and potentially ask questions of the board. And groups of shareholders may get together to influence a company’s direction on a range of business or governance issues. Buying shares in up and coming companies is also a way of putting one’s money where one’s values and interests are, for example in renewable energy, recycling, medical technologies, batteries or emerging markets. The rewards of investing in shares can be enormous, and they’re not just financial. There’s real pride to be gained from looking at a company that has achieved great things and to know that you’ve played a part in its success. However, there is a financial risk associated with owning shares, so if you want to treat your share portfolio as more than just numbers on a screen, speak to us. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice. [/fsn_text][/fsn_column][/fsn_row]