Quarterly Economic Update: October-December 2024

Quarterly Economic Update: October-December 2024

Updated on Economy, Finance, Investing

The final quarter of 2024 reflected a mixed economic landscape. While consumer spending and equity markets showed resilience, persistent inflation, cost-of-living pressures and a cooling housing market have tempered optimism. Interest Rates – Will They Rise or Fall? Inflation in Australia showed signs of easing during the final months of 2024, with the trimmed mean inflation rate falling to 3.2% in November, down from 3.5% in October. The RBA held the cash rate steady at 4.35% during its December meeting, emphasising the need to maintain current policy settings to bring inflation back within the target range over time. Monthly consumer price index (CPI) data for November indicated a 2.3% rise in the 12 months to November 2024, up from a 2.1% rise in October, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Economists remain divided on whether further rate hikes will be necessary in 2025, with some predicting a rate cut as early as February. Cost of Living Pressures Continue Total spending across the Australian economy increased by 1.5% in the September quarter of 2024 compared to the 2.2% in same period of 2023. Essential spending has decreased in the same period due to a decline in petrol prices and various energy relief programs. Discretionary spending increased by 0.8% compared to the same period in 2023, indicating potential signs of recovery. However, data shows that young Australians cut back spending 2% over the past year, while those aged over 60 increased their spending by 3.9% and those over age 70 increased their spending by 7.7%. Black Friday Means Big Spending Australians spent approximately $7 billion in November’s Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales – a 4% increase compared to the same period in 2023. This rise was driven by strong demand for electronics, apparel, and household goods. In-store shopping experienced a notable resurgence, with physical stores accounting for a significant portion of the sales growth. Is the Housing Market Finally Slowing? Australia’s housing market experienced a slight downturn, with national home values recording their first decline in nearly two years. CoreLogic data for December shows a 0.1% decrease in dwelling values, driven by higher interest rates, reduced borrowing capacity, and increasing cost-of-living pressures. The supply of new housing remains constrained, exacerbating affordability challenges. Global Outlook for 2025 Globally, the economic outlook remains resilient, despite significant risks. According to the OECD, global growth is expected to stabilise at around 3% in 2025 and 2026, underpinned by robust performance in emerging economies and gradual recovery in advanced economies. Geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, continue to pose challenges to supply chains and energy markets. Persistent inflation in key regions and the potential for monetary tightening remain areas of concern. For Australia, economic ties with China and commodity exports are key factors influencing the outlook, especially as China’s economic activity shows signs of stabilising. Trump’s Inauguration Looms The inauguration of the Trump administration on January 20th has prompted considerable speculation about potential economic implications. Key areas of focus include trade policy shifts, tax reforms, and geopolitical stability. Early indications suggest a renewed focus on protectionist policies, including higher tariffs on imports from key trading partners. For Australia, this could mean increased challenges in sectors like agriculture and mining, where access to the US market is critical. Stock Market Outlook Australian equities ended the year on a positive note, buoyed by easing inflationary concerns in the US and hopes of a soft landing for the global economy. The ASX200 recorded modest gains in December, aligning with broader global trends. However, analysts caution that 2025 may bring volatility, driven by geopolitical risks, fluctuating commodity prices, and uncertainty in monetary policies. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.  

“Tap and go” and then what?

“Tap and go” and then what?

Updated on Budgeting

Talk about hammering the plastic. In November 2021, Australia’s 13.2 million credit card accounts were used to make over 292 million transactions with a total value of $31.9 billion. Card holders who don’t pay their balances in full every month are currently paying interest on more than $18 billion worth of credit card debt. Interest rates range from 10% to 22% per annum so that adds up to billions of interest owing – and growing! It’s not just the easy money that cards provide; it’s the easy form of delivery via “tap and go” that’s pushing our debt to extraordinary levels. The quicker the transaction, the less thought or planning required. Pay now and think about it (and deal with it) later. Don’t become a statistic – here are some things to look out for plus a few tips. Traps Over 40% of credit card spending goes on groceries and utilities. While this isn’t a problem if you pay off your card balance in full each month, if you’re paying interest just so you can buy the necessities of life, it’s a real danger sign that you may be living beyond your means. Most credit limits are well beyond cardholder needs. On average, Australians only use about a third of their available credit limits each month. However, by giving you a higher credit limit card issuers hope temptation will get the better of you. If that means you can’t pay off your entire balance each month you’ll end up paying them lots of interest. Tips Financial institutions can only offer to increase your credit limit if you specifically ‘opt in’. This can be done in writing or over the phone. However, it’s prudent to withhold this permission to keep your limit under control. You can always apply for a once-off increase if you really need to. Switch to a reloadable (prepaid) credit card. Like a debit card it means you are using your own money with the added advantages that you can pre-set a limit on your spending and reduce the risks associated with buying online. Prepaid cards are available from banks, other financial institutions, and Australia Post. Make sure you check any fees and charges before buying one. If you sign up for a new card for an interest-free purchase, pay it off during the interest-free period then cancel the card before the renewal fee is automatically charged. There is no point paying an annual fee if you’re not going to use the card. And a myth Many people think that it is only lower income earners who are susceptible to the siren call of easy credit. But like the Sirens of Greek folklore themselves, it’s a myth. In fact, higher income earners also rack up huge balances on gold, platinum and diamond cards, and can experience real difficulty in paying them off. If your credit cards are more an enemy than a friend, a financial adviser will be able to suggest a range of solutions to get you back on track.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

When was the last time you paid cash?

When was the last time you paid cash?

Updated on Budgeting, Education

Prior to COVID, we were steadily moving towards a cashless world. Post 2020, even the most resilient of us has made the leap to tap-and-go payments sooner than we expected. From the morning coffee to filling up the petrol tank, we wave that plastic with little thought to the impact on our account balances. In fairness to us, many retailers are now adopting the ‘no-cash please’ trading regime, but we Australians have a reputation for embracing technology and touchless shopping is no exception. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Australian household debt is currently sitting at around 210% of net disposable income. That places us fifth in the world, behind Denmark (257%), Norway (240%), Netherlands (236%) and Switzerland (223%). Compared with countries with spending habits similar to our own – the USA with (105%) and the UK (142%) – we’re quite high. If your debt level is pushing northwards of your preferred limit, here are a few ideas for getting, and staying, on track: – Pay your full card balance off every monthSure, it’s an oldie but a goodie. You know what you need to do; if your current balance is too high, pay more than the minimum amount. The first step in breaking the credit cycle is to get off it, which leads into our next point: – Create a realistic budgetThis will identify where your money is going and how much extra you can pay off your credit cards. The government’s Moneysmart website has a free budget planner to help you. Alternatively, chat with your financial planner and work with them to develop a payment strategy to get your debts under control, and stay that way. – Keep your tap-and-go receipts and reconcile them against your account each weekThis is one of the best ways to see exactly how much you’re shelling out, and on what. You’ll identify areas of unnecessary spending, and you’ll spot any errors or dodgy transactions. – Instead of a credit card for your touchless transactions, consider using a pre-paid cardAvailable from banks and other financial institutions – even Australia Post offers one – you load it with your own money and use it for in-person or online shopping. It’s just like a credit card but without the risk of getting into debt. – Consider your subscriptionsYou know, streaming services, magazines and memberships, etc. Many renew automatically and the first you’ll know about it is an unexpected – often expensive – transaction on your card. Do a stocktake to see what subscriptions you have and decide if you really need them. For those you no longer need, change your subscription settings so they don’t automatically renew. Don’t worry, they’ll alert you when the renewal is due in case you change your mind! We’re definitely living in an interesting time. Our lives have altered in ways we’d never have imagined and we Australians, in our typical way, are adapting to these ‘new-norms’. This is a good thing, just as long as we stay in control!   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

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