Quarterly Economic Update: April – June 2024

Quarterly Economic Update: April – June 2024

Updated on Economy, Finance, Investing

The economy continues to slow, with inflation remaining sticky, the new federal budget making waves, and global events that may have a significant impact. Uncertainty at home and abroad The current outlook indicates uncertainty both domestically and internationally, making it unlikely that inflation will reach the target range of 2-3 per cent in the near future. May forecasts suggested that inflation would return to the target range by the second half of 2025 and reach the midpoint by 2026. However, recent indicators point to weak economic activity, such as slow GDP growth, an increase in the unemployment rate, sluggish wage growth, and uncertain consumption growth. Advanced economies are experiencing a slowdown in growth, although there are signs of improvement in the Chinese and US economies, along with increased commodity prices. Nevertheless, geopolitical uncertainties remain high, which could potentially disrupt supply chains. The Federal Budget focuses on social matters Treasurer Jim Chalmers presented the 2024-2025 Federal Budget on May 14, 2024. The government aimed to alleviate the cost of living without worsening inflation. Key announcements included: Interest rates remain steady, but the pain may not be over The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept interest rates on hold and the cash rate steady at 4.35 per cent throughout the quarter. At the June RBA board meeting, Governor Michele Bullock stated that the board has not dismissed the possibility of further rate hikes. Interest rates will stay at this level until the RBA’s next board meeting in early August. Inflation persists, despite slowing Inflation remains persistent, with the RBA predicting that it will take some time to consistently stay within the target range of 2-3 per cent. Although inflation has decreased significantly since its peak in 2022, the rate of decline has slowed. At the same time, economic growth has been limited as households cut back on non-essential spending due to income constraints. What are we spending on? Households are continuing to limit their spending on non-essential items. Spending on discretionary goods has shown a slow increase, rising by only 0.6 per cent over the year. On the other hand, spending on non-discretionary goods and services has risen by 5.8 per cent, mainly due to higher fuel and food costs. Household spending on health has significantly increased, showing a 15.7 per cent rise compared to this time last year. Health spending made the largest contribution to the overall 3.4 per cent rise in household spending in April. China lifts Aussie beef bans China has lifted bans on most beef and other exporters. The bans began in 2020 when China suspended beef exports from eight processors and imposed official and unofficial trade barriers on barley, coal, lobster, wood, and wine, costing exporters $20 billion Australian dollars ($13 billion) a year. These measures were viewed as politically motivated actions to penalise Australia, although China claimed they were related to trade issues. With the lifting of these bans, less than $1 billion worth of Australian exports are still being impeded. This marks a significant reduction from the previous $13 billion impact on Australian exporters. Trump down but not out Donald Trump’s conviction on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records has not stopped his campaign for President. As the November election looms closer, economists have expressed concerns about Trump’s campaign promise to impose a 10 per cent tariff on all US imports. If implemented, this and other trade policies could trigger another round of trade wars, disrupt international trade, and impact global growth. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Fixed rate mortgage expiring… Now what?

Fixed rate mortgage expiring… Now what?

Updated on Budgeting, Economy, Finance

If your fixed interest rate expiry is coming up, you might have started to think about what happens next and what action you need to take. Or you might be sticking your head in the sand and avoiding the topic entirely. Be warned! The worst thing you can do is take no action at all. If your fixed interest period is due to expire, then it’s time for a review of your finances – Revisit your budget A fixed rate expiry will mean a change to what is often one of our biggest expenses – the home loan repayment. In a rising interest rate environment, this likely means a bigger expense you will need to allow for. By revisiting your budget, you can make sure you can afford the new home loan repayment amount, or adjust your spending where needed. Know your financial situation Your financial situation is going to impact what options are available to you and what options might be best for you. If there’s been recent changes to your income position such as job loss, income reduction or maternity leave, for example, this may impact your ability to refinance your loan. As a result, you may have to stick with your current lender on terms you may not be happy with. If you have surplus cash flow that you want to use to reduce debt, a variable rate loan might be more appropriate so that you’re not as limited with the ability to make repayments. Alternatively, if cash flow is tight, you might appreciate the stability of a fixed rate loan, and knowing your repayment amounts won’t increase during the fixed rate period. By having a good understanding of your current financial position and future goals, you can determine what your needs are and what the best strategy is for you moving forward. Look at what the market is doing One of the main factors to consider when deciding between a fixed and variable interest rate is the current market. While no one has a crystal ball, it’s important to consider what is happening with the economy, housing markets and interest rates. Are interest rates trending up or down? And what might this mean for both fixed and variable interest rate loans? Get clear on your options When your fixed interest term expires, you will need to choose between either re-fixing your loan for a period or switching to a variable interest rate loan. This is also a good opportunity to review your existing loan provider against other loan providers, to ensure you are being offered a competitive rate. With your market research in hand, it’s time to call your existing lender to request a rate review. You can let them know you are considering refinancing your loan and want to know what the best they could offer is. It might be time to switch lenders if they’re not prepared to offer you a competitive rate.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Quarterly Economic Update: January-March 2023

Quarterly Economic Update: January-March 2023

Economy, Investing

The Reserve Bank of Australia has decided to pause its cycle of interest rate hikes, keeping the cash rate target unchanged at 3.6 percent due to softening inflation data, a flat unemployment rate, and the need to assess the impact of previous rate hikes on the economy. The Consumer Price Index slowed from 7.4 per cent to 6.8 per cent for the year to February with prices increasing by just 0.2 per cent for the month of February itself, raising hopes the Reserve Bank might halt any further interest rate increases. Economists though remain divided on the outlook for interest rates. Some point to the low inflation rate recorded for the month of February and say the back has been broken regarding the recent price hikes of the past year. That any further rate rises will risk tipping the domestic economy into recession with local activity already stalling in key industries such as the housing construction industry, local tourism and other recreational industries. Some economists though point to the fact inflation remains doggedly above the Reserve Bank’s preferred inflation range of between 2 and 3 per cent and that consumer spending remains doggedly high despite recent rate hikes. Recession fears are also growing, given the ACTU’s push this year for a 7 per cent increase in the minimum wage from $21.38 an hour to $22.88, taking the minimum wage to $45,337 a year for some 2.4 million workers – a pay rise of some $3,000 a year. This comes hard on the heels of last year’s minimum wage rise of 5.2 per cent. More, the ACTU is pushing for this increase to flow to a range of other award rates, prompting concerns any such move could spark a wage rise – price hike spiral, reminiscent of the 1970’s. However, the ACTU argues the cost-of-living pressures are now so high that this increase is needed just to stop workers falling in poverty. That low-income workers typically spend every cent they earn, and this is exactly what is needed to keep the local economy growing. It also points to continued record high levels of corporate profits in recent years and argues Australian employers can easily afford to pay their workers more without it placing further pressure on prices. Not surprisingly business groups point to Australia’s low level of productivity gains, another increase in the Employers Superannuation Guarantee contribution, to which is set to rise to 11 per cent next financial year and higher funding costs, to argue against any pay increases. Meanwhile, the Federal Government is set to release its first full year budget this quarter. The overriding concern is whether the Government will take this opportunity to deal with the significant structural funding issues within the budget and so start to haul in the Federal deficit. While Government revenues continued to be bolstered by strong international trading conditions for Australia’s key exports of iron ore, coal and wheat, it remains a simple fact that the Federal Government spends more on goods and services than it receives by way of taxes. This situation will only be made worse by the recent decision to acquire a new fleet of state-of-the-art submarines and other military equipment that is expected to add billions of dollars to Government spending over the next few decades. All at a time, when the Government is equally committed to spending billions helping the domestic economy transition away from fossil fuel energy sources and embark on building a new low carbon economy. Meanwhile, a growing number of economists believe the US economy will most certainly fall into recession sometime this year, as its central bank also deals with a blow-out in domestic inflation by increasing local interest rates. While US employment figures remain strong, the recent US rate hikes have put undue pressure on a number of US and international banks, causing the collapse of two high profile banks in recent months. Although the US banking system remains strong, there are fears that these failures will cause a retraction in lending to businesses and so will further increase the likelihood and depth of any pending recession.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Economic Update: October-December 2022

Economic Update: October-December 2022

Updated on Economy, Investing

According to the Reserve Bank of Australia, domestic headline inflation is expected to reach 8% in the final month of 2022 as consumers continue to spend despite higher interest rates. Retail spending saw a significant increase of 6.4% during November, with Black Friday sales pushing the number even higher at 8% during the last week of the month. The surge in spending during this time is relatively new in Australia, with the event being similar to the Black Friday sales that occurred in 2021 but lower than the two previous years. This suggests that the trend may be a short-lived fad in the country. Low unemployment levels and expectations of continued labour shortages throughout the economy appear to be creating newfound confidence among consumers, despite continued increases in interest rates. The Reserve Bank appears determine to halt further price rises by pushing interest rates even higher through 2023, which will inevitably flow through to higher home loan rates and further falls in property prices. This is despite its own figures suggesting that if cash rates reach 3.6 per cent next year, some 15 per cent of Australian homebuyers will be experiencing negative cash flow, where their mortgage repayments exceed their net earnings. Few analysts though are expecting widespread defaults, pointing to the build-up of large financial buffers through the pandemic, continued strong labour markets and earlier house price gains, all acting to help homeowners get through the coming year. Nonetheless, the expectation is for further downward pressure on property prices through 2023, with most analysts predicting a 15 to 20 per cent fall in national house prices from peak to trough with impaired or unrenovated properties experiencing even greater price falls. Company profits are expected to remain strong through 2023, driven mostly by strong export prices, despite efforts to speed up the decarbonisation of the economy and move to more renewable sources of energy creation. Industries are expected to benefit from embracing public-private partnerships with the newly elected Federal Government in policy priority areas such as energy, defence, education, health, and security. The continued strength of the domestic labour market and the strong international demand for Australia’s mining exports should also protect the domestic economy from the cold winds that are currently blowing through the international economy. The United States economy, typically the powerhouse of the world economy, is almost certainly expected to fall into recession later in 2023, with domestic economic growth there expected to fall to a lacklustre 0.5 to 1 per cent for the calendar year of 2023. The Chinese economy is still held moribund by the continuing impact of the pandemic with reported cases of Covid 19 soaring as winter takes its grip on the country, causing factory shutdowns and with that, a fall in exports. In the United Kingdom, inflation peaked at 11.8 per cent in October 2022 and is expected to remain in double digits for some time as higher energy prices, interest rates and general cost of living increases cause widespread price hikes around that nation. While the Bank of England is doing its best to bring inflation under control, there is widespread resentment that it is the poorest and most vulnerable in the community that are paying the highest price for the nation’s economic woes. A situation made worse by the slowdown in economic activity in Europe generally, as the ongoing war in the Ukraine continues to take its toll, driving energy prices higher and causing massive economic dislocation.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

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