Federal Budget 2023-24 Summary

Federal Budget 2023-24 Summary

Updated on Centrelink, Economy, Superannuation, Tax

Lady Luck has once again looked down fondly upon Australia, creating the first Federal Budget surplus in 15 years, through a higher tax take on record export earnings and increasing income tax receipts from higher job numbers. But how long will the good times last? Domestic economic growth is expected to buckle under the weight of higher interest rates. As a result, annual gross domestic product is expected to fall to just 1.5 per cent in 2023 -2024, recovering slightly to just 2.25 per cent the following year. This low growth forecast, down from 3.25 per cent currently, comes despite an expected surge in immigration numbers to 300,000, while inflation is forecast to stay stubbornly close to the 6 per cent mark for 2022-2023. The Budget papers suggest inflation will eventually fall within the Reserve Bank‘s guidelines, but not for some time, raising the possibility of stagflation engulfing economic growth. At the same time, unemployment is expected to rise from its record low level of 3.5 per cent to 4.5 per cent the following year and remain at this level for the foreseeable future. Nonetheless, this is a true Labor Budget. The Federal Government will boost Job Seeker payments by $40 a fortnight, provide greater rent assistance and energy subsidies to low-income households, as well as lower medicine costs and provide cheaper doctor visits for all Australians. Increased wage payments for those working in the aged care sector and increased childcare subsidies should also help to reduce the pressure on working families struggling to deal with the recent uptick in cost-of-living pressures. An estimated 60,000 single parents will also be able to claim the Single Parent welfare payment benefit from September 1, with the Government lifting the eligibility age for the youngest child in a family from 8 to 14 years. The Government insists these measured spending increases are targeted and restrained and will work to reduce the rate of inflation. However, only time will tell if the Reserve Bank agrees that a lift in overall government spending via the Budget will work to bring down prices. The Government hopes to reduce housing pressures by encouraging investment in rental housing by lowering the annual profit on build-to-rent projects from 30 to 15 per cent. But beyond this, this Budget has very little to help struggling businesses. It does, though, include some $4 billion to encourage new green energy programs, including $2 billion to support large-scale hydrogen production and $1.3 billion to help households upgrade their existing homes through the Household Energy Upgrades Fund. At the same time, big-ticket items within the Budget just get bigger. There is a brave estimate that spending within the NDIS will be restrained, yet there is no actual strategy for achieving this other than to reduce waste. The cost of providing health services has never been higher, while defence spending is expected to surge to $20 billion over the next four years, including some $9 billion to be spent on the new AUKUS nuclear-powered submarines. Little has been done to boost Government revenue beyond more fairly taxing windfall profits in the gas industry and increasing the tax bill for super accounts with more than $3 million in assets. Beyond this, nothing has been done to address the structural challenges within the Budget. Meanwhile, there is already unrest that the Job Seeker allowance is not being increased sufficiently to pull recipients out of poverty, with cost of living pressures at record highs for Australia’s most vulnerable people. All at a time when the Budget is in surplus.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Quarterly Economic Update: January-March 2023

Quarterly Economic Update: January-March 2023

Economy, Investing

The Reserve Bank of Australia has decided to pause its cycle of interest rate hikes, keeping the cash rate target unchanged at 3.6 percent due to softening inflation data, a flat unemployment rate, and the need to assess the impact of previous rate hikes on the economy. The Consumer Price Index slowed from 7.4 per cent to 6.8 per cent for the year to February with prices increasing by just 0.2 per cent for the month of February itself, raising hopes the Reserve Bank might halt any further interest rate increases. Economists though remain divided on the outlook for interest rates. Some point to the low inflation rate recorded for the month of February and say the back has been broken regarding the recent price hikes of the past year. That any further rate rises will risk tipping the domestic economy into recession with local activity already stalling in key industries such as the housing construction industry, local tourism and other recreational industries. Some economists though point to the fact inflation remains doggedly above the Reserve Bank’s preferred inflation range of between 2 and 3 per cent and that consumer spending remains doggedly high despite recent rate hikes. Recession fears are also growing, given the ACTU’s push this year for a 7 per cent increase in the minimum wage from $21.38 an hour to $22.88, taking the minimum wage to $45,337 a year for some 2.4 million workers – a pay rise of some $3,000 a year. This comes hard on the heels of last year’s minimum wage rise of 5.2 per cent. More, the ACTU is pushing for this increase to flow to a range of other award rates, prompting concerns any such move could spark a wage rise – price hike spiral, reminiscent of the 1970’s. However, the ACTU argues the cost-of-living pressures are now so high that this increase is needed just to stop workers falling in poverty. That low-income workers typically spend every cent they earn, and this is exactly what is needed to keep the local economy growing. It also points to continued record high levels of corporate profits in recent years and argues Australian employers can easily afford to pay their workers more without it placing further pressure on prices. Not surprisingly business groups point to Australia’s low level of productivity gains, another increase in the Employers Superannuation Guarantee contribution, to which is set to rise to 11 per cent next financial year and higher funding costs, to argue against any pay increases. Meanwhile, the Federal Government is set to release its first full year budget this quarter. The overriding concern is whether the Government will take this opportunity to deal with the significant structural funding issues within the budget and so start to haul in the Federal deficit. While Government revenues continued to be bolstered by strong international trading conditions for Australia’s key exports of iron ore, coal and wheat, it remains a simple fact that the Federal Government spends more on goods and services than it receives by way of taxes. This situation will only be made worse by the recent decision to acquire a new fleet of state-of-the-art submarines and other military equipment that is expected to add billions of dollars to Government spending over the next few decades. All at a time, when the Government is equally committed to spending billions helping the domestic economy transition away from fossil fuel energy sources and embark on building a new low carbon economy. Meanwhile, a growing number of economists believe the US economy will most certainly fall into recession sometime this year, as its central bank also deals with a blow-out in domestic inflation by increasing local interest rates. While US employment figures remain strong, the recent US rate hikes have put undue pressure on a number of US and international banks, causing the collapse of two high profile banks in recent months. Although the US banking system remains strong, there are fears that these failures will cause a retraction in lending to businesses and so will further increase the likelihood and depth of any pending recession.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Economic Update: October-December 2022

Economic Update: October-December 2022

Updated on Economy, Investing

According to the Reserve Bank of Australia, domestic headline inflation is expected to reach 8% in the final month of 2022 as consumers continue to spend despite higher interest rates. Retail spending saw a significant increase of 6.4% during November, with Black Friday sales pushing the number even higher at 8% during the last week of the month. The surge in spending during this time is relatively new in Australia, with the event being similar to the Black Friday sales that occurred in 2021 but lower than the two previous years. This suggests that the trend may be a short-lived fad in the country. Low unemployment levels and expectations of continued labour shortages throughout the economy appear to be creating newfound confidence among consumers, despite continued increases in interest rates. The Reserve Bank appears determine to halt further price rises by pushing interest rates even higher through 2023, which will inevitably flow through to higher home loan rates and further falls in property prices. This is despite its own figures suggesting that if cash rates reach 3.6 per cent next year, some 15 per cent of Australian homebuyers will be experiencing negative cash flow, where their mortgage repayments exceed their net earnings. Few analysts though are expecting widespread defaults, pointing to the build-up of large financial buffers through the pandemic, continued strong labour markets and earlier house price gains, all acting to help homeowners get through the coming year. Nonetheless, the expectation is for further downward pressure on property prices through 2023, with most analysts predicting a 15 to 20 per cent fall in national house prices from peak to trough with impaired or unrenovated properties experiencing even greater price falls. Company profits are expected to remain strong through 2023, driven mostly by strong export prices, despite efforts to speed up the decarbonisation of the economy and move to more renewable sources of energy creation. Industries are expected to benefit from embracing public-private partnerships with the newly elected Federal Government in policy priority areas such as energy, defence, education, health, and security. The continued strength of the domestic labour market and the strong international demand for Australia’s mining exports should also protect the domestic economy from the cold winds that are currently blowing through the international economy. The United States economy, typically the powerhouse of the world economy, is almost certainly expected to fall into recession later in 2023, with domestic economic growth there expected to fall to a lacklustre 0.5 to 1 per cent for the calendar year of 2023. The Chinese economy is still held moribund by the continuing impact of the pandemic with reported cases of Covid 19 soaring as winter takes its grip on the country, causing factory shutdowns and with that, a fall in exports. In the United Kingdom, inflation peaked at 11.8 per cent in October 2022 and is expected to remain in double digits for some time as higher energy prices, interest rates and general cost of living increases cause widespread price hikes around that nation. While the Bank of England is doing its best to bring inflation under control, there is widespread resentment that it is the poorest and most vulnerable in the community that are paying the highest price for the nation’s economic woes. A situation made worse by the slowdown in economic activity in Europe generally, as the ongoing war in the Ukraine continues to take its toll, driving energy prices higher and causing massive economic dislocation.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

The effect of rising inflation

The effect of rising inflation

Updated on Budgeting, Economy

The word ‘inflation’ doesn’t only dominate business news headlines but finds its way into general news reports too. So, what is inflation and how does it affect you? In simple terms, inflation signifies a rise in the price of goods and services, meaning you pay more for every purchase you make. Does the US influence Australia’s inflation rate? It is not a surprise that countries in today’s world are more connected than ever before. Therefore, a rise in US inflation rates will impact the Australian economy too. However, the degree and timing of its impact will vary. For example, a rise in labour costs in the US may have a limited impact on Australians; however, an increase in the price of iPhones or Nike shoes in the US will reflect in their price in Australia too. What will be the impact of rising US inflation on Australia’s economy? Interest rate movements made by the US Federal Reserve Bank (the Fed) are closely monitored by central banks worldwide, including the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Over the past decade, many developed economies, including the US and Australia, have reduced interest rates to boost their economies. With rates rebounding from all-time lows there is an expectation that rates will continue increasing due to the strong performance of those economies. Quite often when the Fed increases its interest rate, Australia is quick to follow suit. The cost of borrowing funds will increase, leading to a rise in the inflation rate, making goods and services more expensive. Rising inflation rates can also negatively impact the Australian dollar, where one AUD buys less USD than it may have done previously. What will be the effect on investors? A rise in inflation affects investment markets negatively due to higher interest rates, volatility in the economy and uncertain share prices. For some investors, rising interest rates mean paying more interest on their home loan, which reduces their disposal income and, in turn reduces their capacity to invest. For retirees, an increase in the price of goods and services at a time of share market volatility can lead to having to sell more of their investment assets (potentially at a loss or reduced profit). Also, there could be uncertainty in dividend income, which many retirees often rely upon. Retiree investors will have fewer years to recover from a drop in their portfolios compared to younger investors. How should you prepare for a rise in inflation? It is important to first analyse your personal cashflow situation to understand where your money goes. Consider fixing at least part your home loan to limit your exposure to rising interest rates. Reconsider new personal loans, such as car loans. Do you need to take on new debt when interest rates are likely to increase? For the risk-taking investor, it can be tempting to invest more money into shares when prices are falling, but always consider averaging your position to avoid market timing risk. For investment purposes, consider having exposure in well established companies “blue chip stocks” vs riskier stock. Investors often find comfort knowing their funds are exposed to good quality companies with strong balance sheets. If the thought of rising inflation leaves you feeling unsettled, be sure to talk to a professional adviser. Your adviser will review your financial position, your ability to meet your financial obligations, as well as identify strategies to outpace inflation.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Quarterly Economic Update: April-June 2022

Quarterly Economic Update: April-June 2022

Updated on Economy

The price of a lowly head of lettuce has never been a recognised barometer of the strength of the Australian economy, that is until the media started reporting iceberg lettuces were selling for $10 a head. Suddenly, this has become a touchstone for everything that is wrong with the domestic economy. Prices are on the rise, spurred by higher transport costs and climate-based disruptions to the food chain, and the cost of living is surging. While some relief came with an unexpected 5.2 per cent increase in the basic wage, a move endorsed by the newly elected Federal Government, the prospect of similar inflation linked wage increases were dismissed as a ‘baby boomer fantasy’ by the trade union movement. Nonetheless, fears of further wage increases remain. So, all eyes are now focused on price rises with the most recent figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, pegging Australia’s rate of inflation at 5.1 per cent per annum. As bad as this might seem, it is still one of the lowest inflation rates among OECD nations, beaten only by Japan and Switzerland, at the bottom of the inflation table with 2.5 per cent, followed by Israel on 4.0 per cent, and Korea and France with 4.8 per cent. However, with inflation in the United States at 8.3 per cent and 7.8 per cent in the United Kingdom and both countries expecting this rate to go higher, the fear is Australia’s rate will start moving towards 7 per cent – a rate not seen in Australia for more than 20 years. Inflationary fears were made worse by the Governor of the Reserve Bank, Phil Lowe, calling for “front-loaded” interest rate hikes to avoid stagflation and warning against any super-sized wage claims. Just the mere mention of stagflation, something not seen since the seventies, has sent a shiver through the economy. This drove fears that home loan interest rates will also be pushed higher, causing more financial stress for those who have borrowed heavily and bought property at the recent record-high prices. While all four of the big banks are reporting current home loan arrears at record low levels and the majority of customers are tracking well ahead on their home loan repayments, fears still remain about the impact of higher interest rates. Property prices have already started to slide with industry analysts expecting the average prices in Melbourne and Sydney to fall by 10 per cent this calendar year and by potentially as much again next financial year. Meanwhile, the value of cryptocurrencies, which seems to magnify prevailing market sentiments, has collapsed across the board with values falling by as much as 70 per cent. The largest single cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, which was trading at just $US67.81 in July 06, 2013, soared as high as $US68,000 last November, is currently trading at $US20,200, with little market enthusiasm. While cryptocurrency was once touted as being something of a safe haven and a means of diversifying investment portfolios, it is fast becoming a magnifier of market excess and pessimistic economic sentiment.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Quarterly Economic Update: January-March 2022

Quarterly Economic Update: January-March 2022

Updated on COVID-19, Economy, Investing

Robust domestic economic growth Australia is rebounding from the pandemic, with domestic economic growth forecast to reach 3.5 per cent this financial year. Some analysts predict it might be even stronger, possibly reaching as high as 4 per cent. Driven by Government spending Much of this is due to the lingering impact of the Federal Government’s massive $343 billion health and economic pandemic support packages, as well as further spending in response to recent floods in New South Wales and Queensland. The Government is also spending some $18 billion on infrastructure, mostly rail and road improvements, in an attempt to boost productivity and efficiencies throughout the economy, particularly in the regions. Tightening geo-political tensions in Asia and around the world has prompted the Government to earmark as much spending again on strategic defence measures, including a new naval submarine base on the east coast. Spurred by higher commodity prices The sudden, and largely unexpected, war in Ukraine has prompted a spike in oil prices as a shadow falls over the continued supply of Russian oil and gas to Western Europe. While prices will ease with the arrival of the Northern summer, they are expected to remain stubbornly high. The war, along with continued supply interruptions due to the pandemic’s lingering impact on world trade, means prices for key commodities such as iron ore, coal, and wheat will remain high for the foreseeable future. For Australia, this is, on balance, good news, meaning the price we are paid for key exports will remain strong, driving both domestic profits and Government tax revenue higher. Employment is exploding In line with this strong level of economic growth, domestic unemployment is set to fall to 3.75 per cent in the coming months, its lowest level in some 50 years. Meanwhile, whole sectors, such as the aged care and child-minding sectors and a number of agricultural sectors, are reporting desperate staff shortages, prompting calls to lift migration levels and allow more temporary workers into the country. Nonetheless, low wage growth continues to dog the economy. While the Government is forecasting quarterly wage growth of 3.25 per cent by the middle of next year, this is still below the expected inflation rate, meaning most Australians will face little relief from higher living costs. However, the continued strength of Government spending, combined with prevailing strong terms of trade, should boost profits across the board, leading to higher returns for investors. Despite some clouds on the horizon As always, there are clouds on the horizon. The United States was already facing inflationary pressures, and the impact of the Ukraine war on oil prices is likely to push the US inflation rate higher still, possibly touching 7.9 per cent this year. The US Federal Reserve has started to pull monetary policy back in with a series of interest rate hikes, fanning fears that the US economy may fall into recession later this year. The US is not alone. The Australian Federal Treasury expects global trade bottlenecks (the war in Ukraine and higher oil and food prices) to prompt an uptick in the local inflation rate above the Reserve Bank’s preferred inflation band of 2.5 to 3 per cent. Rising inflation is, in turn, spurring fears of a domestic interest rate hike, with many analysts expecting the cash rate to increase by one full percentage point, which could cause home loan rates to rise across the country.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Economic Update: April-June 2021

Economic Update: April-June 2021

Updated on COVID-19, Economy

Employment surprise JobKeeper was a cornerstone of Australia’s response to the coronavirus pandemic. It provided millions of Australians with an ongoing income and kept thousands of businesses afloat, so when it came to an end in March expectations were that there would be a sharp spike in unemployment. One estimate was that 150,000 workers would lose their jobs. Happily, that wasn’t what happened. From March to April the unemployment rate dropped from 5.7% to 5.5%, then fell to just 5.1% in May. That’s below the 5.2% that applied in January 2020 before the pandemic hit, and an amazing outcome given the damage that COVID-19 continues to inflict on a virus-weary world. Housing continued to sizzle… Aspiring homeowners and upsizers endured another quarter of woe as home prices continued to soar. Nationally, dwelling prices were up 6.1% for the quarter and 13.5% for the year, with houses outperforming units. Of course, on the other side of the equation are homeowners, many of whom are delighted by the significant boost to their wealth. Continuing low interest rates remain the key driver, but other issues have played a part, including stamp duty discounts and households redirecting the cash they would otherwise have spent on overseas holidays. Lockdowns last year also affected the normal supply of property leading to pent-up demand. As subsidies are rolled back, supply and demand normalise and if population growth remains low, property price growth may well come back to ‘normal’ levels. And despite the RBA not expecting to raise interest rates until at least 2024, some economists are pointing to the low unemployment figures to predict that interest rates may begin to rise by the end of 2022. There is also growing speculation that the RBA and APRA will lift lending standards (e.g. requiring lower loan to valuation ratios) in order to rein in galloping price growth. …as did share markets Global markets performed strongly over the quarter with many setting record highs. Locally the S&P/ASX200 rose 7.7%, beating the MSCI All-Country World Equity Index, which was up 6.9%. Tech shares were back in the lead with the NASDAQ gaining 11.2%, while the S&P500 rose steadily to gain 8.6%. The Aussie dollar fell slightly against the major currencies weakening late in the quarter following talk that the next move in US interest rates may be up. Also… – Workers receiving the minimum wage will see a boost to their pay packets from July, with the minimum wage rising by 2.5% to $772.60 per week or $20.33 per hour. – Most people will see the superannuation guarantee (SG) payment from their employers rise by 0.5% to 10% of normal wages. This is one step on the path to raising the SG to 12% by 2025. – According to Credit Suisse, nearly one in ten Australians are now millionaires. Twenty years ago the figure was less than 1%. Of course a million dollars today doesn’t have the buying power it did 20 years ago, but only Switzerland has more millionaires per capita than we do. – Massive infrastructure projects and home renovation booms have caused a global shortage of building materials. An indicator, perhaps, that some COVID-19 stimulus measures have been a tad overdone?   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Economic Update: October-December 2020

Economic Update: October-December 2020

Updated on COVID-19, Economy, Investing

COVID-19 update Finally, some good news on the COVID-19 front: several vaccines have been rolled out in a number of countries. While a huge step forward in bringing the pandemic under control, it comes at a time when, globally, more people are being infected with the coronavirus, and more people are dying from it than at any previous point in the pandemic. There is a long way to go before victory can be declared. Meanwhile, Victoria squashed its second wave of COVID-19 infections, sparking a bounce in its economy as it enjoyed an extended period of no community spread of coronavirus. Unfortunately, the virus found a way back into both Victoria and NSW, kicking off fresh border closures and holiday chaos. The local view As was widely anticipated, the RBA cut the cash rate target by 0.15% to 0.1% in November. While welcomed by borrowers the cut put additional pressure on net savers by making it even harder to find low risk income yielding investments. Some are turning to peer-to-peer lending platforms, or even high yielding shares, which may partly explain the strong recent performance of the ASX. The official unemployment rate in November was 6.8%, the same as in August. However, using a different methodology, Roy Morgan calculated unemployment to be 11.9% in November, with a further 9.1% under-employed. While hardly cause for celebration, this was the first time since the pandemic began that both figures showed a month-on-month drop. The world stage The US election delivered a change of president, with markets responding positively as the result became clear. As the year came to a close, a sigh of relief was heard from millions as the US Congress approved a coronavirus relief package worth $US892 billion ($1.18 trillion). The package includes $US600 payments to most Americans. After years of negotiation and with just days to spare, the UK and EU managed to agree on a BREXIT trade deal. While it will keep the goods flowing between the UK and Europe, the agreement doesn’t cover the huge services sector. The markets It was a good quarter on the markets with the main global and US indices zooming past pre-COVID-19 levels. The MSCI All-Country World Equity Index rose 13.4%. The Australian market followed suit, with the S&P/ASX200 rising 13.3%. However, the Aussie market has yet to return to its February high. In the US the S&P500 rose 11% and tech stocks continued to attract buyers with the NASDAQ up 15.5%. The A$ gained strength rising 8.2% against the greenback. While partly due to a weakening of the US$, the A$ was also up 2% against the British Pound, 3.4% against the Euro and 5.6% against the Yen. The outlook Beyond direct health effects much of COVID-19’s economic impacts have been due to fear. It will take many months, but as vaccines are rolled out, and provided they bring the pandemic under control, much of that fear will dissipate. As it does economic activity should pick up strongly. Less likely to see any positive developments in the immediate future is the tense relationship between Australia and China. Australian coal miners, winemakers and barley growers will continue to bear the brunt of the dispute. Fortunately, China is still highly dependent on Australian iron ore, the price of which has soared by 78% since the start of the year. For current market conditions and further economic analysis, contact our financial advisers. We’re here to help!   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

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