investing advice Archives

The effect of rising inflation

3 August, 202227 July, 2022 Updated on27 July, 2022 Budgeting, Economy

The word ‘inflation’ doesn’t only dominate business news headlines but finds its way into general news reports too. So, what is inflation and how does it affect you? In simple terms, inflation signifies a rise in the price of goods and services, meaning you pay more for every purchase you make. Does the US influence Australia’s inflation rate? It is not a surprise that countries in today’s world are more connected than ever before. Therefore, a rise in US inflation rates will impact the Australian economy too. However, the degree and timing of its impact will vary. For example, a rise in labour costs in the US may have a limited impact on Australians; however, an increase in the price of iPhones or Nike shoes in the US will reflect in their price in Australia too. What will be the impact of rising US inflation on Australia’s economy? Interest rate movements made by the US Federal Reserve Bank (the Fed) are closely monitored by central banks worldwide, including the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Over the past decade, many developed economies, including the US and Australia, have reduced interest rates to boost their economies. With rates rebounding from all-time lows there is an expectation that rates will continue increasing due to the strong performance of those economies. Quite often when the Fed increases its interest rate, Australia is quick to follow suit. The cost of borrowing funds will increase, leading to a rise in the inflation rate, making goods and services more expensive. Rising inflation rates can also negatively impact the Australian dollar, where one AUD buys less USD than it may have done previously. What will be the effect on investors? A rise in inflation affects investment markets negatively due to higher interest rates, volatility in the economy and uncertain share prices. For some investors, rising interest rates mean paying more interest on their home loan, which reduces their disposal income and, in turn reduces their capacity to invest. For retirees, an increase in the price of goods and services at a time of share market volatility can lead to having to sell more of their investment assets (potentially at a loss or reduced profit). Also, there could be uncertainty in dividend income, which many retirees often rely upon. Retiree investors will have fewer years to recover from a drop in their portfolios compared to younger investors. How should you prepare for a rise in inflation? It is important to first analyse your personal cashflow situation to understand where your money goes. Consider fixing at least part your home loan to limit your exposure to rising interest rates. Reconsider new personal loans, such as car loans. Do you need to take on new debt when interest rates are likely to increase? For the risk-taking investor, it can be tempting to invest more money into shares when prices are falling, but always consider averaging your position to avoid market timing risk. For investment purposes, consider having exposure in well established companies “blue chip stocks” vs riskier stock. Investors often find comfort knowing their funds are exposed to good quality companies with strong balance sheets. If the thought of rising inflation leaves you feeling unsettled, be sure to talk to a professional adviser. Your adviser will review your financial position, your ability to meet your financial obligations, as well as identify strategies to outpace inflation. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Quarterly Economic Update: April-June 2022

20 July, 202213 July, 2022 Updated on13 July, 2022 Economy

The price of a lowly head of lettuce has never been a recognised barometer of the strength of the Australian economy, that is until the media started reporting iceberg lettuces were selling for $10 a head. Suddenly, this has become a touchstone for everything that is wrong with the domestic economy. Prices are on the rise, spurred by higher transport costs and climate-based disruptions to the food chain, and the cost of living is surging. While some relief came with an unexpected 5.2 per cent increase in the basic wage, a move endorsed by the newly elected Federal Government, the prospect of similar inflation linked wage increases were dismissed as a ‘baby boomer fantasy’ by the trade union movement. Nonetheless, fears of further wage increases remain. So, all eyes are now focused on price rises with the most recent figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, pegging Australia’s rate of inflation at 5.1 per cent per annum. As bad as this might seem, it is still one of the lowest inflation rates among OECD nations, beaten only by Japan and Switzerland, at the bottom of the inflation table with 2.5 per cent, followed by Israel on 4.0 per cent, and Korea and France with 4.8 per cent. However, with inflation in the United States at 8.3 per cent and 7.8 per cent in the United Kingdom and both countries expecting this rate to go higher, the fear is Australia’s rate will start moving towards 7 per cent – a rate not seen in Australia for more than 20 years. Inflationary fears were made worse by the Governor of the Reserve Bank, Phil Lowe, calling for “front-loaded” interest rate hikes to avoid stagflation and warning against any super-sized wage claims. Just the mere mention of stagflation, something not seen since the seventies, has sent a shiver through the economy. This drove fears that home loan interest rates will also be pushed higher, causing more financial stress for those who have borrowed heavily and bought property at the recent record-high prices. While all four of the big banks are reporting current home loan arrears at record low levels and the majority of customers are tracking well ahead on their home loan repayments, fears still remain about the impact of higher interest rates. Property prices have already started to slide with industry analysts expecting the average prices in Melbourne and Sydney to fall by 10 per cent this calendar year and by potentially as much again next financial year. Meanwhile, the value of cryptocurrencies, which seems to magnify prevailing market sentiments, has collapsed across the board with values falling by as much as 70 per cent. The largest single cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, which was trading at just $US67.81 in July 06, 2013, soared as high as $US68,000 last November, is currently trading at $US20,200, with little market enthusiasm. While cryptocurrency was once touted as being something of a safe haven and a means of diversifying investment portfolios, it is fast becoming a magnifier of market excess and pessimistic economic sentiment. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

The female investor

6 July, 202229 June, 2022 Updated on29 June, 2022 Investing

Investment and portfolio building has traditionally been a male-dominated world, but these days more women are trading on the market – and they’re good at it! According to an ASX Australian Investor Study completed in 2020, female investors make up 42% of Australian investors, yet 45% of those only began investing in the year prior to 2020. It’s intriguing that younger women – known as Next Generation Investors aged 18 – 25 – are taking up stock portfolios. Their goals include saving for a holiday (50%) or paying down existing debt (34%). The ASX study highlighted a few other interesting points: Women prefer products more commonly understood, such as direct Australian shares (53%), residential investment property (37%) and term deposits (31%). Women are less concerned than men about low interest rates and market fluctuations, but consider issues like whom to trust, hidden fees and liquidity. While men are more accepting of market volatility, women prefer stable or guaranteed investment returns. While we’re about breaking down stereotypes, the study found that women are generally more successful in their investments than men. This could be because women are cautious by nature, taking longer to research investment choices and, once settled, preferring to ride out market ups and downs. Conversely, men tend to regularly review their portfolios and trade aggressively, buying and selling assets, potentially incurring additional fees and losses due to market swings. In recent times there has been a surge in Australian women backing other Australian women in start-up business ventures. According to SmartCompany.com.au, female venture capitalists are recognising that entrepreneurial women face a specific set of challenges, such as a lack of networking and mentoring opportunities, and lingering perceptions around gender-based work/family roles. Further, support for Indigenous businesswomen is increasing as women’s investment networks strive to encourage women from diverse backgrounds. Fact is, almost 40% of Australian women who are single for reasons of divorce, widowhood or otherwise, will retire in poverty. Issues around the gender pay gap are recognised contributors to women generally having less money in savings and/or superannuation: women save an average of $598 per month compared with men $839. In an effort to improve these figures, many women strive to secure their financial futures through self-education: magazines, blogs, podcasts etc. Others seek professional advice through referral from a trusted friend or relative. The financial planning industry recognises that more women are actively investing. Financial advisers are developing strategies specific to women’s needs and goals – in fact, the industry is well-served by a large number of financial professionals who are women. The Financial Planning Association of Australia (FPA) can put you in touch with a qualified professional adviser, just like us, so you can ensure all your decisions are well-informed and that your personal needs and goals are considered. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

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