Quarterly Economic Update: Oct – Dec 2023

Quarterly Economic Update: Oct – Dec 2023

Economy, Finance, Investing

Global growth is forecast to slow and remain below its historical average in 2024, reflective of tighter monetary policy in advanced economies, as well as a soft outlook for China. Australians can expect higher prices, higher interest rates and higher population growth, with economic growth and unemployment decreasing. Inflation continues to bite With a new Governor at the helm of the RBA, and inflation tracking down since its peak in the December quarter 2022, public sentiment hoped that rate rises would be paused. However, the RBA delivered another rate hike at the November 2023 meeting, bringing the official interest rate to 4.35% – the highest level since 2011. It is likely that an increase in the monthly CPI indicator was a key trigger for the RBA to raise rates, as the monthly indicator rose to 5.2 per cent in August, and then rose again to 5.6 per cent in the September data. However, the next monthly data point, for October (which came out after the November rate rise) had inflation decreasing to 4.9 per cent. Services inflation remains high and was the primary driver of stronger-than-expected underlying inflation in the September quarter. Interest rates – will they or won’t they? The RBA continues to be cautious about the inflation outlook for Australia for several reasons: high and sticky inflation in the services market, house prices recovering sooner than anticipated, a tight labour market and increasing population growth due to migration. A survey of 40 economists by the Australian Financial Review shows that the median forecast is that the RBA will start cutting rates in September 2024, whilst the bond market is projecting an easing of rates by mid-2024. The RBA will meet only eight times in 2024, reduced from 11, beginning in February – following an independent review ordered by the Treasury. Coupled with the RBA governor’s commitment to return inflation to the target range of 2-3%, more rate hikes may be on the cards. Holiday spending to remain flat A survey by Roy Morgan forecast shoppers to spend $66.8 billion during the pre-Christmas sales period, only up 0.1% from the same period in 2022, likely as a result of cost of living impacts. Sales spending for the Boxing Day period to December 31 was expected to be about $9 billion, including $3 billion on Boxing Day itself, as retailers prepared larger discounts than usual after a slow year. Hot Property House and unit prices grew steadily in 2023, with a national annual growth rate of 5.42% (6.54% in capital cities). The main drivers include the highest net overseas migration levels ever recorded, few vacant properties and stronger demand for established homes due to the construction industry facing capacity and cost issues. This growth forecast is expected to continue as most experts believe demand for housing will continue to outstrip supply. However, Australia’s cost of living increases and interest rate uncertainty will keep biting—leading to weaker price growth than previous years. The rental market remains in a critical shortage of available dwellings according to SQM Research. Due to the ongoing supply and demand imbalance, the market is expecting capital city rental increases of 7-10% for 2024, on top of an average 10% market increase in 2023. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.  

Federal Government’s October 2022 Budget

Federal Government’s October 2022 Budget

Economy

A sudden uptick in the unemployment rate and slower economic growth combined with continued strong inflationary pressures are set to test the Australian economy during the next two years, according to the Federal Government’s 2022 October Budget. While record commodity prices and higher Government revenues have provided some relief reducing the annual budget deficit from $78 billion to $36.9 billion, the economic outlook remains uncertain. Government spending will continue to outpace revenue with Canberra doing little to address the long-term structural difficulties contained within the budget, despite trying to restrain spending in order to limit inflationary pressures within the economy. Perhaps more importantly is the very real possibility that the Australian economy could tip into recession next year with unemployment set to spike at 5.5 per cent while economic growth is expected to slow to just 1.5 per cent. Global political and economic uncertainty cast a long shadow over this budget, with the Government allocating some $1.4 billion in aid to Pacific nations during coming years – one of the few areas of higher Government spending. Despite keeping a tight hold on outlays, the budget centrepiece is a pledge to build 1 million new houses across the nation during the next five years, in an attempt to alleviate the country’s chronic housing and rental shortages. Nonetheless, households will continue to face their own tough budgetary realities with energy prices tipped to explode by more than 56 per cent in the two years ahead and real wages expected to continue to fall. Fearful of pushing domestic inflation even higher, the Budget contains no cash relief or direct subsidies for households facing increasing cost of living pressures from higher energy costs, higher fuel prices and higher interest rates. Medicines will become cheaper with the maximum general co-payment for medicines on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme cut from $42.50 to $30 while an additional 17 million scripts will now receive Government subsidies to reduce their cost to patients. In the meantime, the Government has left the door open to review the much-debated 2024 income tax cuts, which are focused on providing tax relief for high income earners, particularly wage earners who have been adversely impacted by ‘bracket-creep”. The former Government’s much talked about commuter car park programs have been axed along with $1.7 billion slashed from various Government regional dams’ projects over the next four years and $4.6 billion over the next twelve years. While the Government has promised to spend $1 billion to create 180,000 additional fee-free TAFE and vocational training places, little has been done to support small business, emerging from two years of pandemic created restrictions and tough trading conditions. Nonetheless, the whole country will benefit from the Government’s commitment to move to a low carbon economy and its “Rewiring the Nation” program is set to improve energy transmission and connect new renewable energy projects to the nation’s electricity grid. $800 million has been set aside for Powering Australia, which plans to cut taxes on electric vehicles, invest in a national EV charging network and provide solar battery storage for up to 100,000 Australian homes.     The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice. 

Quarterly Economic Update: January-March 2022

Quarterly Economic Update: January-March 2022

Updated on COVID-19, Economy, Investing

Robust domestic economic growth Australia is rebounding from the pandemic, with domestic economic growth forecast to reach 3.5 per cent this financial year. Some analysts predict it might be even stronger, possibly reaching as high as 4 per cent. Driven by Government spending Much of this is due to the lingering impact of the Federal Government’s massive $343 billion health and economic pandemic support packages, as well as further spending in response to recent floods in New South Wales and Queensland. The Government is also spending some $18 billion on infrastructure, mostly rail and road improvements, in an attempt to boost productivity and efficiencies throughout the economy, particularly in the regions. Tightening geo-political tensions in Asia and around the world has prompted the Government to earmark as much spending again on strategic defence measures, including a new naval submarine base on the east coast. Spurred by higher commodity prices The sudden, and largely unexpected, war in Ukraine has prompted a spike in oil prices as a shadow falls over the continued supply of Russian oil and gas to Western Europe. While prices will ease with the arrival of the Northern summer, they are expected to remain stubbornly high. The war, along with continued supply interruptions due to the pandemic’s lingering impact on world trade, means prices for key commodities such as iron ore, coal, and wheat will remain high for the foreseeable future. For Australia, this is, on balance, good news, meaning the price we are paid for key exports will remain strong, driving both domestic profits and Government tax revenue higher. Employment is exploding In line with this strong level of economic growth, domestic unemployment is set to fall to 3.75 per cent in the coming months, its lowest level in some 50 years. Meanwhile, whole sectors, such as the aged care and child-minding sectors and a number of agricultural sectors, are reporting desperate staff shortages, prompting calls to lift migration levels and allow more temporary workers into the country. Nonetheless, low wage growth continues to dog the economy. While the Government is forecasting quarterly wage growth of 3.25 per cent by the middle of next year, this is still below the expected inflation rate, meaning most Australians will face little relief from higher living costs. However, the continued strength of Government spending, combined with prevailing strong terms of trade, should boost profits across the board, leading to higher returns for investors. Despite some clouds on the horizon As always, there are clouds on the horizon. The United States was already facing inflationary pressures, and the impact of the Ukraine war on oil prices is likely to push the US inflation rate higher still, possibly touching 7.9 per cent this year. The US Federal Reserve has started to pull monetary policy back in with a series of interest rate hikes, fanning fears that the US economy may fall into recession later this year. The US is not alone. The Australian Federal Treasury expects global trade bottlenecks (the war in Ukraine and higher oil and food prices) to prompt an uptick in the local inflation rate above the Reserve Bank’s preferred inflation band of 2.5 to 3 per cent. Rising inflation is, in turn, spurring fears of a domestic interest rate hike, with many analysts expecting the cash rate to increase by one full percentage point, which could cause home loan rates to rise across the country.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Federal Budget Highlights 2022-23

Federal Budget Highlights 2022-23

Updated on Economy

The Federal Government has delivered a big-spending 2022 budget, taking immediate steps to reduce cost of living pressures for working Australians while implementing a range of massive infrastructure and defence spending measures. The Government will slash the fuel excise by half, effective immediately, as well as provide a one-off cash hand out of $250 to a range of social security recipients, and a $450 additional tax offset for low- and middle-income earners. Productivity will be boosted across the nation by enhanced training incentives, dramatic tax measures to drive greater digital adoption and improve computer-based efficiencies as well as steps to boost the nation’s overall level of self-sufficiency.  Concerns about the growing budget deficit, which has now reached $78 billion, have been largely put on the back burner with confidence placed in the fact that as the economy grows, this will naturally reduce. A bounding economy The Australian economy has posted astonishing growth. It has come roaring out of two years of pandemic induced lockdowns, to post strong growth across the nation, spurred on by higher prices for coal, iron ore and wheat. Gross domestic product is expected to expand by a massive 4.2% this year while wages are expected to grow by 2.75% and surge by 3.25 % in the following year. Unemployment is currently 4%, but this is expected to drop to 3.75 % over the next six months – its lowest level since 1974. An extra 100,000 Australians have found work compared to employment numbers recorded when the pandemic first hit in March 2020. This is expected to help slash welfare payments by $11 billion across the next four years. A focus on increased productivity Training and improved productivity remains a key focus, with the Government implementing a $365 million extension to the existing apprentice wage subsidy scheme, in an attempt to further boost apprenticeship training. The Federal Government is continuing its focus on boosting business productivity allowing a $120 tax deduction for every $100 spent on digital adoption technology, such as portable payment systems, cyber security measures and subscriptions to cloud based services. A similar tax measure will be introduced for businesses providing external training courses to staff whether online or in-person, to increase productivity throughout the economy. This will be supported by a raft of Government driven efficiencies such as digitalising trust income reporting, improved PAYG systems and automatic reporting of taxable payments. And a more efficient economy The 2022-23 budget also includes a raft of infrastructure projects that will drive greater efficiencies and economic growth across Australia in the decade ahead. In addition, the Government has announced steps to develop a circular waste economy, support low emission technologies including hydrogen, extended gas pipeline infrastructure and more efficient environment approval strategies. Source: budget.gov.au   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

EOFY is coming – Have you thought about …

EOFY is coming – Have you thought about …

Updated on Superannuation, Tax

The end of another financial year is looming, and with that may come thoughts about your tax return and how your wealth has tracked throughout the year. Whether you’re nearing retirement, a high-income earner looking to reduce your taxable income, or you’re on a lower income and looking for ways to maximise your super contributions; there are a few things you can consider at tax time. Nearing retirement? Maximise your super contributions If you’re nearing retirement, putting as much money into your superannuation account now is a good way to make sure you build up a healthy nest egg to live off in your golden years. To maximise your super contributions, consider salary sacrificing to put more money into your super account. Salary sacrificed super payments take money out of your pre-tax income. These are called concessional contributions and are taxed at 15%. This rate is lower than most taxpayers’ marginal tax rates, so it can be an excellent way to reduce your taxable income while increasing your superannuation savings. The maximum employer and salary sacrificed contributions that can be made each financial year is $25,000. And remember, if you’re self-employed, your concessional contributions are a tax deduction. Non-concessional contributions of up to $100,000 can also be made each financial year. These contributions come from your after-tax income. Consider a one-off contribution to lower your income tax Let’s say you’re on an income of $170,000. If you haven’t opted to salary sacrifice, your employer contributions to super will be $14,748.86 in the financial year. Therefore, your taxable income will be $155,251.14. To lower your taxable income, you could make a one-off concessional contribution of $10,000. This will reduce your taxable income and still come in under the concessional contribution cap of $25,000. Are you eligible for the Government co-contributions to super? If you earn less than $54,837 per year (20/21 financial year) before tax, you could be eligible for the Government’s co-contribution on after-tax super contributions. Those who earn under the threshold can make an after-tax contribution, and the Government will calculate your co-contribution amount when you submit your tax return. The co-contribution will be deposited directly to your superannuation account. Review your records now Now is the time to check you’ve been keeping good records. Have you got a record of relevant receipts and policy statements for items such as income protection policies you have outside superannuation? Understanding the paperwork you require now to maximise your deductions will save you time when it comes to completing your tax return. If you haven’t got all of your records organised, review your spending throughout the year, identify transactions that may be a tax deduction, and put aside those receipts for tax time. Looking for more help? If you’re looking to maximise your tax return and get ready for a successful financial year ahead, talk to a financial adviser about your options. It doesn’t matter your circumstances; there are options available to help you boost your super savings and get the best tax return possible.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

What to consider when withdrawing your super early

What to consider when withdrawing your super early

Updated on Finance

[fsn_row][fsn_column width=”12″][fsn_text] As the COVID-19 virus took a sledgehammer to the economy, the federal government rapidly introduced a range of initiatives to help individuals who lost income as a result of the measures taken to control the virus.   One of those initiatives was to allow qualifying individuals access to a portion of their superannuation to help them meet their living costs. Withdrawals are tax free and don’t need to be included in tax returns. Most people can withdraw up to $10,000 in the 2019/2020 financial year and up to a further $10,000 in the 2020/2021 financial year.   For many people this early access to super will prove to be a financial lifesaver, but for others the short-term gain may lead to a significant dip in wealth at retirement. And the younger you are, the greater that impact on retirement is likely to be.   Alexander provides an example that many people will be able to relate to. He’s a 30-year-old hospitality worker, and due to the casual nature of his recent employment he is not eligible for the JobKeeper allowance. He is eligible to apply for early release of his super under the COVID-19 provisions, however before going down this route he wants an idea of what the withdrawal will mean to his long term situation.   Taking the maxMuch depends, of course, on the future performance of his superannuation fund. However, if Alexander withdraws $20,000 over the two financial years, and if his super fund delivers a modest 3% per annum net return (after fees, tax and inflation), then by age pension age (currently 67), Alexander will have $39,700 less in retirement savings than if he doesn’t make the withdrawal.   At a 4% net return, he will be $65,360 worse off if he makes the super withdrawal.   But that’s not the only disadvantage for Alexander. A smaller lump sum at retirement means a lower annual income. If Alexander draws down his super over a 20 year period, at a 3% net return, he will be around $2,670 worse off each year as a result of making the withdrawal. Over 20 years that adds up to a total loss of $53,375. At a 4% return, his youthful withdrawal will cost him over $96,000 by the time he reaches 87.   Reducing the riskOn the plus side, if Alexander is eligible for a part age pension when he retires, his smaller superannuation balance may see him receive a bigger age pension.   There are other things Alexander can do to reduce the financial consequences of accessing his super early. One is to only make the withdrawal if he absolutely has to. Or if he does make the withdrawal, to use the bare minimum and, when his employment situation improves, to contribute the remaining amount back to his super fund as a non-concessional contribution.   COVID-19 is adding further complexity to our financial lives, so before making decisions that may have a long-term impact, speak to us.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice. [/fsn_text][/fsn_column][/fsn_row]

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