Your recession survival guide

Your recession survival guide

Updated on Economy, Education, Finance

In the ever-fluctuating world of economics, recessions are an inevitable part of the financial cycle.   While they can be daunting, understanding their nature and preparing for their impact can make a significant difference in weathering the storm.   Understanding Recessions  At its core, a recession represents a period where economic activity contracts, often reflected in consecutive quarters of negative GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth. This contraction is not just a statistic on a chart; it resonates through various facets of the economy.   Employment opportunities might become scarcer, leading to job losses or reduced working hours. Households might witness a dip in their income levels, which in turn affects their purchasing power. Consequently, consumer spending, a significant driver of the economy, takes a hit.  The onset of a recession can occur for various reasons, and often it’s a combination of several factors, rather than just one event.   High inflation rates, for instance, can reduce the value of money, prompting consumers to cut back on spending.    Additionally, rising consumer debt can be problematic. While borrowing can boost economic growth in the short term, too much debt can lead to payment defaults, affecting both households and the banks they borrowed from.   Moreover, unexpected events, such as a global health crisis, can interrupt business operations and reduce consumer demand, leading to economic downturns.   It’s the mix of these local and global factors that highlights the intricate nature of recessions and the importance of understanding them.  Preparing Everyday Expenses for a Recession  1. Budgeting: The cornerstone of financial resilience is a well-planned budget. Track your monthly income and expenses, prioritise necessities, and cut back on luxuries. This will not only help you save but also give you a clear picture of where your money goes.  2. Debt Reduction: High-interest debts can cripple your finances. Focus on paying off high-interest debts first, like credit card balances. Consider consolidating your debts or negotiating with lenders for better terms.  3. Emergency Fund: An emergency fund acts as a financial cushion. Aim to save at least three to six months’ worth of living expenses. This fund can be a lifesaver if you face job loss or unexpected expenses during a recession.  Fortifying Your Savings for a Recession  1. Automatic Savings: Set up an automatic transfer to your savings account each month. This ensures you’re consistently saving, making it less tempting to spend that money elsewhere.  2. Diversify Your Savings: Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Consider diversifying your savings across different accounts or financial institutions. This can protect your money from bank failures or other unforeseen events.  3. Liquidity is Key: In uncertain times, having access to your savings can be crucial. While long-term deposits or high-yield accounts might offer better interest rates, ensure a portion of your savings is in easily accessible accounts, like a regular savings account or a money market account. This ensures you can quickly access funds without penalties or waiting periods should the need arise.  Navigating Investments During a Recession  1. Review Your Strategy: Recessions are not the time for hasty decisions. Re-evaluate your investment strategy in light of the current economic climate. Ensure your portfolio aligns with your long-term financial goals.  2. Seek Professional Advice: If you’re unsure about your investments, consult a financial adviser. They can provide insights tailored to your situation and help you make informed decisions.  3. Avoid Impulsive Moves: It’s natural to feel anxious during economic downturns. However, making impulsive investment decisions based on fear can lead to significant losses. Stay informed, be patient, and remember that recessions are temporary.  Recessions, while challenging, are a natural part of the economic cycle. By understanding their nature and preparing in advance, you can not only survive, but thrive, during these times.   Remember, the key is to be proactive, stay informed, and make well-considered financial decisions. With the right strategies in place, you can navigate any economic storm with confidence!  The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.  

The Wealth of Gold: Investing in a timeless asset

The Wealth of Gold: Investing in a timeless asset

Updated on Economy, Investing

As investors navigate through unpredictable and volatile economic times, it is essential to consider asset classes that can provide a level of stability and protection against market fluctuations. One such asset that has stood the test of time is gold. For centuries, gold has been a symbol of wealth and has played an essential role in the global economy.  Why Investors Turn to Gold During Volatile Times Gold has long been considered a safe haven asset, as it has maintained its value throughout history. When the stock market experiences downturns or geopolitical tensions escalate, investors often flock to gold as a way to protect their portfolios against market fluctuations. The price of gold typically moves in the opposite direction of the stock market, making it a valuable hedge against economic uncertainty. Moreover, gold is not subject to the same risks as other investments such as bonds or stocks, making it a reliable store of value. Benefits and Consequences of Investing in Gold The primary benefit of investing in gold is its ability to provide a level of diversification to an investment portfolio. By including gold in a portfolio, investors can reduce their exposure to other assets, thus lowering overall risk. Additionally, gold is a tangible asset that investors can physically hold, making it an appealing option for those who prefer assets they can see and touch. However, investing in gold also comes with some drawbacks. The most significant risk associated with investing in gold is its volatility. While gold has maintained its value over time, its price can still fluctuate significantly over shorter periods. Furthermore, investing in gold does not provide a source of income, as it does not pay dividends or interest. Investors looking for regular income streams should consider other investments, such as bonds or stocks that offer dividend payouts. Interesting Facts About Gold Gold has been used as a form of currency for thousands of years. In ancient times, individuals and countries stockpiled gold as a way to preserve their wealth. For instance, during the California Gold Rush in the mid-1800s, the US government established the first national gold reserve to help stabilize the economy. Similarly, during World War II, countries like the US and the UK stockpiled gold to finance their war efforts. Getting Exposure to Gold Investors have several options to get exposure to gold. The most common way is to invest in physical gold, such as gold coins or bars. However, buying physical gold can be expensive, and investors also need to pay for storage and insurance costs. An alternative option is to invest in gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which track the price of gold and offer investors an easy way to invest in gold without the hassle of buying physical gold. Finally, investors can also invest in gold mining stocks, which provide exposure to the gold industry and can potentially offer higher returns than investing in physical gold or gold ETFs. While investing in gold can offer protection against market fluctuations and diversify an investment portfolio, it is crucial for investors to carefully consider the risks and benefits associated with this asset class. By weighing the pros and cons and assessing how gold aligns with their investment objectives, investors can make informed decisions about whether to include this timeless asset in their investment strategy.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Quarterly Economic Update: January-March 2023

Quarterly Economic Update: January-March 2023

Economy, Investing

The Reserve Bank of Australia has decided to pause its cycle of interest rate hikes, keeping the cash rate target unchanged at 3.6 percent due to softening inflation data, a flat unemployment rate, and the need to assess the impact of previous rate hikes on the economy. The Consumer Price Index slowed from 7.4 per cent to 6.8 per cent for the year to February with prices increasing by just 0.2 per cent for the month of February itself, raising hopes the Reserve Bank might halt any further interest rate increases. Economists though remain divided on the outlook for interest rates. Some point to the low inflation rate recorded for the month of February and say the back has been broken regarding the recent price hikes of the past year. That any further rate rises will risk tipping the domestic economy into recession with local activity already stalling in key industries such as the housing construction industry, local tourism and other recreational industries. Some economists though point to the fact inflation remains doggedly above the Reserve Bank’s preferred inflation range of between 2 and 3 per cent and that consumer spending remains doggedly high despite recent rate hikes. Recession fears are also growing, given the ACTU’s push this year for a 7 per cent increase in the minimum wage from $21.38 an hour to $22.88, taking the minimum wage to $45,337 a year for some 2.4 million workers – a pay rise of some $3,000 a year. This comes hard on the heels of last year’s minimum wage rise of 5.2 per cent. More, the ACTU is pushing for this increase to flow to a range of other award rates, prompting concerns any such move could spark a wage rise – price hike spiral, reminiscent of the 1970’s. However, the ACTU argues the cost-of-living pressures are now so high that this increase is needed just to stop workers falling in poverty. That low-income workers typically spend every cent they earn, and this is exactly what is needed to keep the local economy growing. It also points to continued record high levels of corporate profits in recent years and argues Australian employers can easily afford to pay their workers more without it placing further pressure on prices. Not surprisingly business groups point to Australia’s low level of productivity gains, another increase in the Employers Superannuation Guarantee contribution, to which is set to rise to 11 per cent next financial year and higher funding costs, to argue against any pay increases. Meanwhile, the Federal Government is set to release its first full year budget this quarter. The overriding concern is whether the Government will take this opportunity to deal with the significant structural funding issues within the budget and so start to haul in the Federal deficit. While Government revenues continued to be bolstered by strong international trading conditions for Australia’s key exports of iron ore, coal and wheat, it remains a simple fact that the Federal Government spends more on goods and services than it receives by way of taxes. This situation will only be made worse by the recent decision to acquire a new fleet of state-of-the-art submarines and other military equipment that is expected to add billions of dollars to Government spending over the next few decades. All at a time, when the Government is equally committed to spending billions helping the domestic economy transition away from fossil fuel energy sources and embark on building a new low carbon economy. Meanwhile, a growing number of economists believe the US economy will most certainly fall into recession sometime this year, as its central bank also deals with a blow-out in domestic inflation by increasing local interest rates. While US employment figures remain strong, the recent US rate hikes have put undue pressure on a number of US and international banks, causing the collapse of two high profile banks in recent months. Although the US banking system remains strong, there are fears that these failures will cause a retraction in lending to businesses and so will further increase the likelihood and depth of any pending recession.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Thriving in the ‘Gig Economy’

Thriving in the ‘Gig Economy’

Updated on Budgeting, Education, Tax

If you’re a freelancer or contractor or maybe even a consultant then you’re part of the “gig economy”. Gone is the job for life, or even a job in the normal, employed meaning of the word. For you, work consists of short-term contracts or a series of one-off jobs. “Gigs” as the band down at the pub might put it. For some, gig work is a liberating choice that allows them to work their own hours, holiday when they like and work wherever they wish. For others it’s a necessity in a weak job market where under-employment and age discrimination is rife, and more companies choose to outsource specific tasks. Key to the gig economy is technology, be it an Uber app, Skype, crowdsourcing sites or just email and the Web. A study found that 4.1 million Australians had freelanced in 2014/15, and it’s a trend more likely to grow than diminish. So if you’re a “gig worker” what can you do to make the most of your situation? It’s business If you’re happy picking up the odd jobs that fall into your lap for a little extra money, that’s fine. But if you are looking to earn a full-time income then you’re in business and need to operate accordingly. To begin with, you need to know: Who your potential clients are; How to reach out to them; How to gain referrals; The processes you have to put into place to track your work, issue invoices, and make sure you get paid on time; How to meet your tax obligations. Protect yourself Depending on the work you do and the requirements of your clients you may need a range of insurances: Professional indemnity insurance – if there’s any chance a client could sue you in relation to the work you are engaged to complete. Public liability insurance – in case your work activities cause injury to a member of the public. Income protection insurance – you may be eligible for workers’ compensation insurance, but the rules vary from state to state, depend on your business structure, and only cover work-related injuries. Income protection insurance will also cover you against illness and non-work-related injuries. Life insurance – if you have dependents but little in the way of net assets. Think long term Can you build your business into something you can sell? If not, how will you fund your retirement? As a gig worker you’re unlikely to receive compulsory superannuation contributions, but you can (and should) make your own contributions. Personal contributions are tax deductible up to the annual concessional cap of $27,500. Get advice All state and territory governments have departments of business that offer a wealth of information and support for small businesses. Check out the help available in your state. And talk to your financial adviser. Aside from being able to look at your insurance, savings and super needs, your adviser may be an experienced small business operator, a potential mentor, and a valuable member of your network. Contact us today!   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Economic Update: October-December 2022

Economic Update: October-December 2022

Updated on Economy, Investing

According to the Reserve Bank of Australia, domestic headline inflation is expected to reach 8% in the final month of 2022 as consumers continue to spend despite higher interest rates. Retail spending saw a significant increase of 6.4% during November, with Black Friday sales pushing the number even higher at 8% during the last week of the month. The surge in spending during this time is relatively new in Australia, with the event being similar to the Black Friday sales that occurred in 2021 but lower than the two previous years. This suggests that the trend may be a short-lived fad in the country. Low unemployment levels and expectations of continued labour shortages throughout the economy appear to be creating newfound confidence among consumers, despite continued increases in interest rates. The Reserve Bank appears determine to halt further price rises by pushing interest rates even higher through 2023, which will inevitably flow through to higher home loan rates and further falls in property prices. This is despite its own figures suggesting that if cash rates reach 3.6 per cent next year, some 15 per cent of Australian homebuyers will be experiencing negative cash flow, where their mortgage repayments exceed their net earnings. Few analysts though are expecting widespread defaults, pointing to the build-up of large financial buffers through the pandemic, continued strong labour markets and earlier house price gains, all acting to help homeowners get through the coming year. Nonetheless, the expectation is for further downward pressure on property prices through 2023, with most analysts predicting a 15 to 20 per cent fall in national house prices from peak to trough with impaired or unrenovated properties experiencing even greater price falls. Company profits are expected to remain strong through 2023, driven mostly by strong export prices, despite efforts to speed up the decarbonisation of the economy and move to more renewable sources of energy creation. Industries are expected to benefit from embracing public-private partnerships with the newly elected Federal Government in policy priority areas such as energy, defence, education, health, and security. The continued strength of the domestic labour market and the strong international demand for Australia’s mining exports should also protect the domestic economy from the cold winds that are currently blowing through the international economy. The United States economy, typically the powerhouse of the world economy, is almost certainly expected to fall into recession later in 2023, with domestic economic growth there expected to fall to a lacklustre 0.5 to 1 per cent for the calendar year of 2023. The Chinese economy is still held moribund by the continuing impact of the pandemic with reported cases of Covid 19 soaring as winter takes its grip on the country, causing factory shutdowns and with that, a fall in exports. In the United Kingdom, inflation peaked at 11.8 per cent in October 2022 and is expected to remain in double digits for some time as higher energy prices, interest rates and general cost of living increases cause widespread price hikes around that nation. While the Bank of England is doing its best to bring inflation under control, there is widespread resentment that it is the poorest and most vulnerable in the community that are paying the highest price for the nation’s economic woes. A situation made worse by the slowdown in economic activity in Europe generally, as the ongoing war in the Ukraine continues to take its toll, driving energy prices higher and causing massive economic dislocation.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Federal Government’s October 2022 Budget

Federal Government’s October 2022 Budget

Economy

A sudden uptick in the unemployment rate and slower economic growth combined with continued strong inflationary pressures are set to test the Australian economy during the next two years, according to the Federal Government’s 2022 October Budget. While record commodity prices and higher Government revenues have provided some relief reducing the annual budget deficit from $78 billion to $36.9 billion, the economic outlook remains uncertain. Government spending will continue to outpace revenue with Canberra doing little to address the long-term structural difficulties contained within the budget, despite trying to restrain spending in order to limit inflationary pressures within the economy. Perhaps more importantly is the very real possibility that the Australian economy could tip into recession next year with unemployment set to spike at 5.5 per cent while economic growth is expected to slow to just 1.5 per cent. Global political and economic uncertainty cast a long shadow over this budget, with the Government allocating some $1.4 billion in aid to Pacific nations during coming years – one of the few areas of higher Government spending. Despite keeping a tight hold on outlays, the budget centrepiece is a pledge to build 1 million new houses across the nation during the next five years, in an attempt to alleviate the country’s chronic housing and rental shortages. Nonetheless, households will continue to face their own tough budgetary realities with energy prices tipped to explode by more than 56 per cent in the two years ahead and real wages expected to continue to fall. Fearful of pushing domestic inflation even higher, the Budget contains no cash relief or direct subsidies for households facing increasing cost of living pressures from higher energy costs, higher fuel prices and higher interest rates. Medicines will become cheaper with the maximum general co-payment for medicines on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme cut from $42.50 to $30 while an additional 17 million scripts will now receive Government subsidies to reduce their cost to patients. In the meantime, the Government has left the door open to review the much-debated 2024 income tax cuts, which are focused on providing tax relief for high income earners, particularly wage earners who have been adversely impacted by ‘bracket-creep”. The former Government’s much talked about commuter car park programs have been axed along with $1.7 billion slashed from various Government regional dams’ projects over the next four years and $4.6 billion over the next twelve years. While the Government has promised to spend $1 billion to create 180,000 additional fee-free TAFE and vocational training places, little has been done to support small business, emerging from two years of pandemic created restrictions and tough trading conditions. Nonetheless, the whole country will benefit from the Government’s commitment to move to a low carbon economy and its “Rewiring the Nation” program is set to improve energy transmission and connect new renewable energy projects to the nation’s electricity grid. $800 million has been set aside for Powering Australia, which plans to cut taxes on electric vehicles, invest in a national EV charging network and provide solar battery storage for up to 100,000 Australian homes.     The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice. 

Why the share market is not the same as the economy

Why the share market is not the same as the economy

Updated on Economy, Finance

At the beginning of 2022 the Australian economy appeared to be sliding into recession, dragged down by higher interest rates and even higher inflation levels. As a result, it was tempting to believe the share market was also set to tumble. And while that’s not impossible, the local market traded higher during each of Australia’s last nine recessions, with some of the strongest trading on the Australian share market occurring when the economy was contracting. For example, 1983 was the best year ever on the Australian share market, climbing 60 per cent higher, while the economy was stuck hard in the 1981-1983 recession. So, while it is tempting to think poor economic times mean a dismal outlook for the market, there are four key reasons why that is usually not the case. Firstly, the market is driven by expectations. There is an old saying; investors buy on the rumour and sell on the facts. Big share market falls occur suddenly, well before the economy officially moves into recession, as investors promptly react to bad news. Once the economy is in recession, investors look to the future and how companies can take advantage of emerging opportunities in an improving economy. Improvements that can take time to show up in economic data. Secondly, the share market reflects investor sentiment, while consumer concerns and beliefs dominate the economy. Consumers might cut back on buying clothes or going out in preference to boosting savings when they fear bad times. In contrast, professional investors are constantly looking for opportunities, and economic downturns where small businesses go bust and consumer sentiment changes, usually create them. Thirdly, the share market comprises large successful companies. In contrast, economic statistics are dominated by what is happening to individuals and small businesses. Two groups that can respond very differently to world events. For example, the war in Ukraine prompted a rise in energy prices, particularly for oil. Most individuals and small businesses responded by cutting back on their petrol consumption, while large oil companies are cranking up production to take advantage of these higher prices. Finally, the share market has a much smaller universe than the economy. The market is made up of large companies entirely focused on getting larger and more profitable and, in doing so, attracting more investors to support their efforts. The economy is made up of Governments, individuals, and small businesses, all making a wide range of decisions about how they will live and operate in an ever-changing world and are basing those decisions on a raft of factors. So, while the share market and economy are connected, they are influenced by widely different variants that often see them heading in different directions.     The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice. 

Quarterly Economic Update: April-June 2022

Quarterly Economic Update: April-June 2022

Updated on Economy

The price of a lowly head of lettuce has never been a recognised barometer of the strength of the Australian economy, that is until the media started reporting iceberg lettuces were selling for $10 a head. Suddenly, this has become a touchstone for everything that is wrong with the domestic economy. Prices are on the rise, spurred by higher transport costs and climate-based disruptions to the food chain, and the cost of living is surging. While some relief came with an unexpected 5.2 per cent increase in the basic wage, a move endorsed by the newly elected Federal Government, the prospect of similar inflation linked wage increases were dismissed as a ‘baby boomer fantasy’ by the trade union movement. Nonetheless, fears of further wage increases remain. So, all eyes are now focused on price rises with the most recent figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, pegging Australia’s rate of inflation at 5.1 per cent per annum. As bad as this might seem, it is still one of the lowest inflation rates among OECD nations, beaten only by Japan and Switzerland, at the bottom of the inflation table with 2.5 per cent, followed by Israel on 4.0 per cent, and Korea and France with 4.8 per cent. However, with inflation in the United States at 8.3 per cent and 7.8 per cent in the United Kingdom and both countries expecting this rate to go higher, the fear is Australia’s rate will start moving towards 7 per cent – a rate not seen in Australia for more than 20 years. Inflationary fears were made worse by the Governor of the Reserve Bank, Phil Lowe, calling for “front-loaded” interest rate hikes to avoid stagflation and warning against any super-sized wage claims. Just the mere mention of stagflation, something not seen since the seventies, has sent a shiver through the economy. This drove fears that home loan interest rates will also be pushed higher, causing more financial stress for those who have borrowed heavily and bought property at the recent record-high prices. While all four of the big banks are reporting current home loan arrears at record low levels and the majority of customers are tracking well ahead on their home loan repayments, fears still remain about the impact of higher interest rates. Property prices have already started to slide with industry analysts expecting the average prices in Melbourne and Sydney to fall by 10 per cent this calendar year and by potentially as much again next financial year. Meanwhile, the value of cryptocurrencies, which seems to magnify prevailing market sentiments, has collapsed across the board with values falling by as much as 70 per cent. The largest single cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, which was trading at just $US67.81 in July 06, 2013, soared as high as $US68,000 last November, is currently trading at $US20,200, with little market enthusiasm. While cryptocurrency was once touted as being something of a safe haven and a means of diversifying investment portfolios, it is fast becoming a magnifier of market excess and pessimistic economic sentiment.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Quarterly Economic Update: January-March 2022

Quarterly Economic Update: January-March 2022

Updated on COVID-19, Economy, Investing

Robust domestic economic growth Australia is rebounding from the pandemic, with domestic economic growth forecast to reach 3.5 per cent this financial year. Some analysts predict it might be even stronger, possibly reaching as high as 4 per cent. Driven by Government spending Much of this is due to the lingering impact of the Federal Government’s massive $343 billion health and economic pandemic support packages, as well as further spending in response to recent floods in New South Wales and Queensland. The Government is also spending some $18 billion on infrastructure, mostly rail and road improvements, in an attempt to boost productivity and efficiencies throughout the economy, particularly in the regions. Tightening geo-political tensions in Asia and around the world has prompted the Government to earmark as much spending again on strategic defence measures, including a new naval submarine base on the east coast. Spurred by higher commodity prices The sudden, and largely unexpected, war in Ukraine has prompted a spike in oil prices as a shadow falls over the continued supply of Russian oil and gas to Western Europe. While prices will ease with the arrival of the Northern summer, they are expected to remain stubbornly high. The war, along with continued supply interruptions due to the pandemic’s lingering impact on world trade, means prices for key commodities such as iron ore, coal, and wheat will remain high for the foreseeable future. For Australia, this is, on balance, good news, meaning the price we are paid for key exports will remain strong, driving both domestic profits and Government tax revenue higher. Employment is exploding In line with this strong level of economic growth, domestic unemployment is set to fall to 3.75 per cent in the coming months, its lowest level in some 50 years. Meanwhile, whole sectors, such as the aged care and child-minding sectors and a number of agricultural sectors, are reporting desperate staff shortages, prompting calls to lift migration levels and allow more temporary workers into the country. Nonetheless, low wage growth continues to dog the economy. While the Government is forecasting quarterly wage growth of 3.25 per cent by the middle of next year, this is still below the expected inflation rate, meaning most Australians will face little relief from higher living costs. However, the continued strength of Government spending, combined with prevailing strong terms of trade, should boost profits across the board, leading to higher returns for investors. Despite some clouds on the horizon As always, there are clouds on the horizon. The United States was already facing inflationary pressures, and the impact of the Ukraine war on oil prices is likely to push the US inflation rate higher still, possibly touching 7.9 per cent this year. The US Federal Reserve has started to pull monetary policy back in with a series of interest rate hikes, fanning fears that the US economy may fall into recession later this year. The US is not alone. The Australian Federal Treasury expects global trade bottlenecks (the war in Ukraine and higher oil and food prices) to prompt an uptick in the local inflation rate above the Reserve Bank’s preferred inflation band of 2.5 to 3 per cent. Rising inflation is, in turn, spurring fears of a domestic interest rate hike, with many analysts expecting the cash rate to increase by one full percentage point, which could cause home loan rates to rise across the country.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Federal Budget Highlights 2022-23

Federal Budget Highlights 2022-23

Updated on Economy

The Federal Government has delivered a big-spending 2022 budget, taking immediate steps to reduce cost of living pressures for working Australians while implementing a range of massive infrastructure and defence spending measures. The Government will slash the fuel excise by half, effective immediately, as well as provide a one-off cash hand out of $250 to a range of social security recipients, and a $450 additional tax offset for low- and middle-income earners. Productivity will be boosted across the nation by enhanced training incentives, dramatic tax measures to drive greater digital adoption and improve computer-based efficiencies as well as steps to boost the nation’s overall level of self-sufficiency.  Concerns about the growing budget deficit, which has now reached $78 billion, have been largely put on the back burner with confidence placed in the fact that as the economy grows, this will naturally reduce. A bounding economy The Australian economy has posted astonishing growth. It has come roaring out of two years of pandemic induced lockdowns, to post strong growth across the nation, spurred on by higher prices for coal, iron ore and wheat. Gross domestic product is expected to expand by a massive 4.2% this year while wages are expected to grow by 2.75% and surge by 3.25 % in the following year. Unemployment is currently 4%, but this is expected to drop to 3.75 % over the next six months – its lowest level since 1974. An extra 100,000 Australians have found work compared to employment numbers recorded when the pandemic first hit in March 2020. This is expected to help slash welfare payments by $11 billion across the next four years. A focus on increased productivity Training and improved productivity remains a key focus, with the Government implementing a $365 million extension to the existing apprentice wage subsidy scheme, in an attempt to further boost apprenticeship training. The Federal Government is continuing its focus on boosting business productivity allowing a $120 tax deduction for every $100 spent on digital adoption technology, such as portable payment systems, cyber security measures and subscriptions to cloud based services. A similar tax measure will be introduced for businesses providing external training courses to staff whether online or in-person, to increase productivity throughout the economy. This will be supported by a raft of Government driven efficiencies such as digitalising trust income reporting, improved PAYG systems and automatic reporting of taxable payments. And a more efficient economy The 2022-23 budget also includes a raft of infrastructure projects that will drive greater efficiencies and economic growth across Australia in the decade ahead. In addition, the Government has announced steps to develop a circular waste economy, support low emission technologies including hydrogen, extended gas pipeline infrastructure and more efficient environment approval strategies. Source: budget.gov.au   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Quarterly Economic Update: October-December 2021

Quarterly Economic Update: October-December 2021

Updated on COVID-19, Economy, Investing

Coronavirus Victoria and New South Wales saw their economies roar back to life as they emerged from lockdown just in time for a new kid to arrive on the coronavirus block. Omicron spread around the world seemingly within days knocking Delta off the front pages. Appearing to cause less severe disease than previous strains, and with Australia achieving high rates of immunisation, state governments held off resorting to lockdowns in an attempt to minimise financial carnage on businesses and workers.  All this battling against the virus comes at an enormous cost. The mid-year budget update forecasts annual deficits of around $100 billion for the next few years, no surplus over the next ten years, and gross debt of $1.2 trillion by 2024-2025. Jobs galore The unemployment rate dipped to 4.6% in November as an additional 366,100 people joined the ranks of the employed. The under-employment rate fell 2% to 7.5%, and many employers reported difficulties in finding staff. Homebuyer hopes Homebuyers gained a little power over sellers towards the end of the year as a surge in listings saw auction clearance rates in Melbourne and Sydney drop to 66% and 73% respectively. If this extra supply is maintained it should help to cool what has been a very hot property market. COP this The Covid-delayed climate change conference COP26 was finally held in Glasgow, and Australia joined the large number of countries aiming to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050. Good progress was made in some areas, such as reducing methane emissions, ending deforestation and, for some countries, phasing down coal. However, modelling predicts that if all current commitments are fulfilled we will still see temperatures rise by 2.4 degrees. This is well short of the Paris Agreement goal to limit warming to 2 degrees, and preferably 1.5 degrees. The Glasgow Climate pact calls on nations to “strengthen their pledges to reduce emissions by the end of 2022.” Expensive energy Major energy users suffered from a big spike in the costs of both coal and natural gas during the quarter. Prices corrected abruptly in November, but still remained much higher than at the start of the year. Oil prices were also higher, nudging US$85 per barrel during October and November. Aside from hitting consumers’ petrol and home energy bills, high energy prices also led to an increase in the cost of, and shortages of urea – a chemical that is critical to the production of fertilizer (and therefore food) and to keeping diesel trucks on the road. Ups and downs The volatility in the value of the Aussie dollar against major currencies continued for the quarter. It traded between 70 US cents and 75 US cents in line with its long-term trend. We gained more than 3.7% against the Euro and Yen, and held ground against the British Pound. The local share market failed to excite, tracking sideways before putting on a small end of year spurt that saw the S&P ASX 200 close the quarter up 1.5%. It was a different story for US stocks. The S&P500 closed out the year at a record high after lifting nearly 11% for the quarter. The Nasdaq was close behind with a 9% gain.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Economic Update: July-September 2021

Economic Update: July-September 2021

COVID-19, Economy

COVID here to stay The third quarter of the calendar year brought with it the third and by far the biggest wave in COVID-19 infections. Largely restricted to NSW and Victoria the outbreak was driven by the highly infectious Delta variant. Such was its speed of spread it forced a change in strategy from one of elimination to learning to live with the virus, supported by a massive vaccination campaign. By quarter’s end vaccination rates were closing in on key targets that will allow a slow and selective lifting of the severe lockdown conditions that have prevailed for months. Time to chill You know Australia has a housing problem when the head of one of the big banks, in this case Matt Comyn at CBA, calls for action “sooner rather than later” to stop the property market overheating. This was on the back of CoreLogic data showing house prices in Melbourne and Sydney rose 15.6% and 26% respectively over the 12 months to August. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also called on Australian regulators to cool the market. Don’t expect this to happen through the usual instrument of increased interest rates. Rather, look for reduced lending in specific sectors, such as investors, higher deposit requirements, or testing loan serviceability at higher interest rates. Pop goes iron ore Iron ore’s price bubble eventually popped as China instructed its steelmakers to cut back on production. Over the quarter the ore price fell 45%, with major miners taking an equivalent hit. BHP, Rio and Fortescue saw their shares tumble 33%, 26% and 44% respectively. Hot topic In August the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its latest report. It warned that “unless there are immediate, rapid and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, limiting warming to 1.5°C or even 2°C will be beyond reach”. The report paints a grim picture of what that warmer world will look like and returned climate change to the front pages of the world’s newspapers. The numbers Equity markets experienced a bit of a rollercoaster ride over the quarter. All the major indices posted record highs, but most ended up within 1% of where they started. The Aussie dollar also had a volatile quarter, trading between 71 and 75.4 US cents and finishing at 72 cents. It was a similar story against the other major currencies. In both cases the late-quarter sell-offs were blamed on expectations of higher US interest rates. On the radar Many of the world’s leaders will come together in Glasgow at the end of October for the 26th UN Climate Change Conference (COP26). If they heed the warning from the IPCC, and if they agree to take the necessary steps to limit warming to 2°C (and preferably 1.5°C), it will set the scene for a dramatic economic transformation, with huge opportunities for those who can sort the winners from the losers. Of more immediate concern, Chinese property company China Evergrande appears to be on the brink of collapse. Heavily indebted to the tune of US$300 billion, if it is allowed to fail it is likely to have global ramifications, not the least for Australia. China’s construction boom has been a huge driver of demand for our iron ore.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Quarterly Economic Update: January-March 2021

Quarterly Economic Update: January-March 2021

Updated on COVID-19, Economy, Investing

The global COVID-19 jab-fest gathered pace with some countries, including Israel and the United Kingdom, achieving high rates of immunisation. However, the rollout has had some issues. Rare side effects linked to the AstraZeneca vaccine saw a number of countries suspend its use for a period of time, and Australia was slow off the mark with its immunisation rollout. The longer it takes to vaccinate the world, the slower the economic recovery. Hot property Pushing COVID-19 off the front pages was the big jump in residential property prices. Nationally, CoreLogic’s home value index jumped 5.8% for the quarter. Sydney led the jump with a 6.7% lift. In March alone the index rose 2.8%, the biggest rise in 32 years. Most of the action was on the first home and owner-occupiers front, though investor purchases were also up. The main fuel being added to the property price fire is ongoing low interest rates. With the RBA indicating rates will most likely remain low for years, that could continue to inflate property values and see more people priced out of the market. Helping to fuel the market was good employment numbers. Seasonally adjusted, the ABS reported an unemployment rate of 5.8% in February, down from 6.3% in January. However, this counts people on JobKeeper as employed. Taking this into account, Roy Morgan put unemployment at 13.2% in February, with 21% of the workforce either unemployed or under-employed. Blocked artery In late March the container ship Ever Given provided a graphic example of how small things can have a huge impact. Strong wind gusts saw the giant ship wedge itself bank to bank across the Suez Canal, one of the world’s main shipping arteries. Suddenly 30% of world container shipping ground to a halt. Fortunately, the ship was freed after a few days, and the backlog of ships was cleared a few days after that, but it was a stark reminder of how vulnerable large parts of the economy are. Key numbers The pace of recovery in the local and international share markets slowed during the quarter as prices crept close to or exceeded their pre-pandemic levels. The S&P/ASX200 rose 3.1%, trailing the MSCI All-Country World Equity Index, which was up 4.2%. Tech shares ran out of puff with the NASDAQ only gaining 1.4%, while the S&P500 surged late in the quarter to gain 6.1%. The outlook Many countries are experiencing third and fourth waves of COVID-19, and it’s a fair bet that the virus will continue to dictate the way we live for some time to come. But it’s not the only game in town. US President Joe Biden has taken climate change off the back burner and moved it front and centre. That means our government and businesses will need to pay it a lot more attention too. Expect carbon tariffs to become a hot topic. On the local front, with interest rates all but ruled out as a tool for managing the residential property boom, talk is turning to the use of regulatory methods to dampen demand. These could involve requiring bigger deposits or limiting the rate of credit growth. And with JobKeeper now wound up employment figures will come under close scrutiny. Expect to see a jump in unemployment this current quarter.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

What is money… really?

What is money… really?

Updated on Economy, Finance

That $50 note in your pocket. What’s it worth? “$50,” you say, probably thinking it’s a dumb question. But is it really? Or a sheet of plastic and a bit of ink that likely cost the note printer less than a cent? Your $50 note only has value because the government declares that it does. This lack of intrinsic value means your $50 note, and the balances of bank accounts that represent most money in circulation, might better be described as currency rather than ‘real money’. Over the past few thousand years all sorts of items have been used as currency, from shells and cocoa beans to soap and cigarettes. But to be considered real money, several key criteria need to be met. The most important are that it is: Recognised as a medium of exchange and accepted by most people within an economy. Durable. Portable, having a high value relative to its weight and size. Divisible into smaller amounts. Resistant to counterfeiting. A store of value over long timeframes. Of intrinsic value, i.e. not reliant on anything else for its value. Throughout history gold and silver have come closest to meeting these and other criteria, though nowadays you’ll have difficulty in paying for your groceries with gold Krugerrands. Also, you’ll want to keep your gold and silver in a safe place, and it was people seeking to do just that which gave rise to paper money and our current system of bank-created money. What started out as a good idea… Centuries ago goldsmiths would take in gold and silver for safekeeping and issue the owners receipts, or notes, confirming the amount of gold held. The depositors soon discovered that these notes could be used for payment in place of the physical gold, but the goldsmiths noticed something else. It was rare for anyone to redeem all their notes at once. They saw the opportunity to issue notes as a loan that borrowers paid back over time, with interest. Provided borrowers paid back their loans on time and only a small proportion of owners wanted their gold back at any given time, all was well, and goldsmiths transformed into bankers. But this didn’t always work out. An economic shock might see everyone wanting their gold back, and if the bank couldn’t deliver the full amount that was demanded, it went broke. To help prevent this, many countries created central banks, with some governments even acting as lender-of-last-resort. While government control and the rules around banking have evolved over time, private banks are still the source of most currency created today. When things get real In economically stable times it’s easy to think of currency and real money as the same thing. However, a couple of examples reveal the difference between the two. One is when a government starts printing money to pay for its programs. Inflation usually results, and the value of currency can plummet. In the case of hyperinflation, paper money and bank deposits can quickly become worthless as happened in Germany in the 1920s. The difference between currency and real money and the issue of intrinsic value has implications for other investments. If you would like to learn more, talk to us. We’re here to help.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

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