cost of living Archives

Quarterly Economic Update: July-September 2024

10 October, 202410 October, 2024 Economy, Finance, Investing

The Australian economy is still growing, but things are moving slower than usual, and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is being cautious with any changes to interest rates. They’re waiting for inflation to settle before taking further action. GDP Growth: Slowly But Surely While the economy is growing, it’s not as fast as we might like. Over the June quarter, the economy expanded by just 0.2%, with a 1.5% growth over the financial year. While these numbers sound positive, when you factor in Australia’s growing population, the story changes. For the sixth quarter in a row, GDP per capita (which looks at economic growth per person) has actually fallen. This shows that while Australia as a whole is growing, individuals may not feel that impact, especially with rising costs of living. Interest Rates: Holding Steady In September, the RBA decided to keep interest rates on hold at 4.35%, with the next decision due in November. While the US recently cut rates, Australia hasn’t followed suit, and it’s unlikely we’ll see any rate cuts before Christmas. The RBA is holding off to ensure inflation is well under control, despite it being much lower than the peak in 2022. Inflation: Better But Still Stubborn Annual inflation hit 3.8% in the June quarter, slightly up from March. However, there’s good news: underlying inflation (which strips out the more volatile price changes) has been falling for six straight quarters, down from its peak of 6.8% in late 2022. That said, prices for everyday goods remain high, and the overall cost of living is still squeezing households. Households Are Tightening Their Belts With cost-of-living pressures building, many Australians are cutting back on things like travel and entertainment. Even grocery spending is down, with households trimming their food budgets by 1%. However, spending on household goods, like furniture and appliances, increased by 4%, which propped up discretionary spending overall. Housing Market: Prices Still Going Up The property market remains strong, with housing values continuing to rise across Australia, although at a slower pace than before. CoreLogic reports that the national Home Value Index rose by 0.5% in August and a further 0.4% in September. Despite the cost of living, demand for property remains high, which is keeping prices elevated. Jobs Market: Still Tight, But Productivity Is Falling Australia’s unemployment rate remains low, sitting at 4.1% as of June, which is historically strong. However, total hours worked rose only slightly, and productivity—measured by GDP per hour worked—fell by 0.8%. While jobs remain secure for many Australians, people are working more for less output, and this could become a concern for long-term economic stability. Global Outlook: Uncertainty Ahead Globally, central banks are starting to look at easing monetary policies, but it’s still unclear how much they’ll ease up. Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, Ukraine, and northern Africa are causing further instability. Meanwhile, Asia’s economy, a key trading partner for Australia, is expected to slow in 2024, which could have a knock-on effect on our own economic growth. What It All Means for You For everyday Australians, the combination of high interest rates, sticky inflation, and rising living costs means it’s more important than ever to manage your finances carefully. Mortgage holders won’t see relief from rate cuts soon, and households should continue to be mindful of their budgets, especially with the cost of essentials like groceries and petrol still fluctuating. If you’re feeling the pinch, now is a good time to seek professional advice and ensure you have a financial plan in place that helps you navigate these uncertain times. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice. 

Quarterly Economic Update: April – June 2024

1 July, 202427 June, 2024 Updated on27 June, 2024 Economy, Finance, Investing

The economy continues to slow, with inflation remaining sticky, the new federal budget making waves, and global events that may have a significant impact. Uncertainty at home and abroad The current outlook indicates uncertainty both domestically and internationally, making it unlikely that inflation will reach the target range of 2-3 per cent in the near future. May forecasts suggested that inflation would return to the target range by the second half of 2025 and reach the midpoint by 2026. However, recent indicators point to weak economic activity, such as slow GDP growth, an increase in the unemployment rate, sluggish wage growth, and uncertain consumption growth. Advanced economies are experiencing a slowdown in growth, although there are signs of improvement in the Chinese and US economies, along with increased commodity prices. Nevertheless, geopolitical uncertainties remain high, which could potentially disrupt supply chains. The Federal Budget focuses on social matters Treasurer Jim Chalmers presented the 2024-2025 Federal Budget on May 14, 2024. The government aimed to alleviate the cost of living without worsening inflation. Key announcements included: Interest rates remain steady, but the pain may not be over The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept interest rates on hold and the cash rate steady at 4.35 per cent throughout the quarter. At the June RBA board meeting, Governor Michele Bullock stated that the board has not dismissed the possibility of further rate hikes. Interest rates will stay at this level until the RBA’s next board meeting in early August. Inflation persists, despite slowing Inflation remains persistent, with the RBA predicting that it will take some time to consistently stay within the target range of 2-3 per cent. Although inflation has decreased significantly since its peak in 2022, the rate of decline has slowed. At the same time, economic growth has been limited as households cut back on non-essential spending due to income constraints. What are we spending on? Households are continuing to limit their spending on non-essential items. Spending on discretionary goods has shown a slow increase, rising by only 0.6 per cent over the year. On the other hand, spending on non-discretionary goods and services has risen by 5.8 per cent, mainly due to higher fuel and food costs. Household spending on health has significantly increased, showing a 15.7 per cent rise compared to this time last year. Health spending made the largest contribution to the overall 3.4 per cent rise in household spending in April. China lifts Aussie beef bans China has lifted bans on most beef and other exporters. The bans began in 2020 when China suspended beef exports from eight processors and imposed official and unofficial trade barriers on barley, coal, lobster, wood, and wine, costing exporters $20 billion Australian dollars ($13 billion) a year. These measures were viewed as politically motivated actions to penalise Australia, although China claimed they were related to trade issues. With the lifting of these bans, less than $1 billion worth of Australian exports are still being impeded. This marks a significant reduction from the previous $13 billion impact on Australian exporters. Trump down but not out Donald Trump’s conviction on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records has not stopped his campaign for President. As the November election looms closer, economists have expressed concerns about Trump’s campaign promise to impose a 10 per cent tariff on all US imports. If implemented, this and other trade policies could trigger another round of trade wars, disrupt international trade, and impact global growth. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Quarterly Economic Update: January-March 2024

9 April, 20244 April, 2024 Updated on4 April, 2024 Economy, Finance, Investing

The first quarter of 2024 saw the Government roll out considerable changes to the Stage 3 Tax Cuts, inflation continuing to slow but remaining stubbornly high across some areas, surging stock market highs and continuing pressures in the property sector. Government Overhauls Stage 3 Tax Cuts In January, the Labor government unveiled changes to the proposed stage 3 tax cuts, aimed at providing bigger tax cuts to middle Australia. The new changes, which passed the Senate to become law in February, retain the tax bracket that would have been scrapped under the original proposal, and adjust tax rates to benefit both lower and higher-income earners. The changes will take effect from July 1 and are summarised as follows: Taxable Income Bracket Tax rate New Tax Plan from July 1, 2024 Below $18,200 0% $18,200 to $45,000 16% $45,000 to $135,000 30% $135,000 to $190,000 37% Above $190,000 45% Original Stage 3 tax cuts Below $18,200 0% $18,200 to $45,000 19% $45,000 to $200,000 30% Above $200,000 45% Inflation continues to ease Inflation continues on a downward trend, with the RBA expecting it to return to the target range of 2-3 percent in 2025, and reach the midpoint in 2026. Service price inflation remains high despite goods price inflation decreasing, supported by continued excess demand and strong domestic cost pressures. The RBA expects the consumer price index (CPI) to come in at 3.3% by June, compared with 3.9% forecast three months ago. As a result, the board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.35 per cent at the first official meeting for the year.  Share Market Highs Global share markets have been breaking records this quarter, with the ASX200, S&P500, Eurozone and Japanese markets reaching record highs, helped by US inflation data coming in as expected, leaving the Fed on track to cut rates from mid-year. Whilst economic growth both locally and globally is forecast to slow, there is optimism in the market as inflation has started easing and is likely to continue falling, and central banks across the US, Canada and Europe are expected to start cutting rates in the coming months. Recession still looms as a risk, but it appears the economy may be moving toward a soft landing. Housing market continues to tighten The national vacancy rate fell to a new low of 0.7 per cent in February, highlighting the ongoing supply and demands challenges in rental properties across Australia, as a result of a construction sector under strain, rapid population growth from migration, and rising property prices. Whilst the government has put stricter measures on international students to try to ease demand pressures, supply continues to be an issue, with building approvals falling by 1 per cent in January, though multi-unit dwelling approvals increased by 19.5 per cent in the same period. Property prices continued to rise despite higher interest rates, inflation and cost of living concerns. The Home Value Index was up 0.6 per cent nationally in February, and showed an increase in all capital cities except Hobart. Labour market cooling Labour market conditions cooled over the December quarter 2023, with an ongoing shift away from full-time employment and growth in part-time jobs, and a decrease in recruitment activity. These trends are consistent with Treasury forecasts that growth will continue to ease and the unemployment rate will increase from 3.9 per cent in January to 4.2 per cent by June, and 4.3 per cent by the end of the year. Despite clear softening, labour market conditions remain tight, and many employers are experiencing challenges finding suitable workers to fill positions, while some shortage pressures remain evident. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice. 

Quarterly Economic Update: Oct – Dec 2023

10 January, 202410 January, 2024 Economy, Finance, Investing

Global growth is forecast to slow and remain below its historical average in 2024, reflective of tighter monetary policy in advanced economies, as well as a soft outlook for China. Australians can expect higher prices, higher interest rates and higher population growth, with economic growth and unemployment decreasing. Inflation continues to bite With a new Governor at the helm of the RBA, and inflation tracking down since its peak in the December quarter 2022, public sentiment hoped that rate rises would be paused. However, the RBA delivered another rate hike at the November 2023 meeting, bringing the official interest rate to 4.35% – the highest level since 2011. It is likely that an increase in the monthly CPI indicator was a key trigger for the RBA to raise rates, as the monthly indicator rose to 5.2 per cent in August, and then rose again to 5.6 per cent in the September data. However, the next monthly data point, for October (which came out after the November rate rise) had inflation decreasing to 4.9 per cent. Services inflation remains high and was the primary driver of stronger-than-expected underlying inflation in the September quarter. Interest rates – will they or won’t they? The RBA continues to be cautious about the inflation outlook for Australia for several reasons: high and sticky inflation in the services market, house prices recovering sooner than anticipated, a tight labour market and increasing population growth due to migration. A survey of 40 economists by the Australian Financial Review shows that the median forecast is that the RBA will start cutting rates in September 2024, whilst the bond market is projecting an easing of rates by mid-2024. The RBA will meet only eight times in 2024, reduced from 11, beginning in February – following an independent review ordered by the Treasury. Coupled with the RBA governor’s commitment to return inflation to the target range of 2-3%, more rate hikes may be on the cards. Holiday spending to remain flat A survey by Roy Morgan forecast shoppers to spend $66.8 billion during the pre-Christmas sales period, only up 0.1% from the same period in 2022, likely as a result of cost of living impacts. Sales spending for the Boxing Day period to December 31 was expected to be about $9 billion, including $3 billion on Boxing Day itself, as retailers prepared larger discounts than usual after a slow year. Hot Property House and unit prices grew steadily in 2023, with a national annual growth rate of 5.42% (6.54% in capital cities). The main drivers include the highest net overseas migration levels ever recorded, few vacant properties and stronger demand for established homes due to the construction industry facing capacity and cost issues. This growth forecast is expected to continue as most experts believe demand for housing will continue to outstrip supply. However, Australia’s cost of living increases and interest rate uncertainty will keep biting—leading to weaker price growth than previous years. The rental market remains in a critical shortage of available dwellings according to SQM Research. Due to the ongoing supply and demand imbalance, the market is expecting capital city rental increases of 7-10% for 2024, on top of an average 10% market increase in 2023. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice. 

Federal Budget 2023-24 Summary

24 May, 202318 May, 2023 Updated on18 May, 2023 Centrelink, Economy, Superannuation, Tax

Lady Luck has once again looked down fondly upon Australia, creating the first Federal Budget surplus in 15 years, through a higher tax take on record export earnings and increasing income tax receipts from higher job numbers. But how long will the good times last? Domestic economic growth is expected to buckle under the weight of higher interest rates. As a result, annual gross domestic product is expected to fall to just 1.5 per cent in 2023 -2024, recovering slightly to just 2.25 per cent the following year. This low growth forecast, down from 3.25 per cent currently, comes despite an expected surge in immigration numbers to 300,000, while inflation is forecast to stay stubbornly close to the 6 per cent mark for 2022-2023. The Budget papers suggest inflation will eventually fall within the Reserve Bank‘s guidelines, but not for some time, raising the possibility of stagflation engulfing economic growth. At the same time, unemployment is expected to rise from its record low level of 3.5 per cent to 4.5 per cent the following year and remain at this level for the foreseeable future. Nonetheless, this is a true Labor Budget. The Federal Government will boost Job Seeker payments by $40 a fortnight, provide greater rent assistance and energy subsidies to low-income households, as well as lower medicine costs and provide cheaper doctor visits for all Australians. Increased wage payments for those working in the aged care sector and increased childcare subsidies should also help to reduce the pressure on working families struggling to deal with the recent uptick in cost-of-living pressures. An estimated 60,000 single parents will also be able to claim the Single Parent welfare payment benefit from September 1, with the Government lifting the eligibility age for the youngest child in a family from 8 to 14 years. The Government insists these measured spending increases are targeted and restrained and will work to reduce the rate of inflation. However, only time will tell if the Reserve Bank agrees that a lift in overall government spending via the Budget will work to bring down prices. The Government hopes to reduce housing pressures by encouraging investment in rental housing by lowering the annual profit on build-to-rent projects from 30 to 15 per cent. But beyond this, this Budget has very little to help struggling businesses. It does, though, include some $4 billion to encourage new green energy programs, including $2 billion to support large-scale hydrogen production and $1.3 billion to help households upgrade their existing homes through the Household Energy Upgrades Fund. At the same time, big-ticket items within the Budget just get bigger. There is a brave estimate that spending within the NDIS will be restrained, yet there is no actual strategy for achieving this other than to reduce waste. The cost of providing health services has never been higher, while defence spending is expected to surge to $20 billion over the next four years, including some $9 billion to be spent on the new AUKUS nuclear-powered submarines. Little has been done to boost Government revenue beyond more fairly taxing windfall profits in the gas industry and increasing the tax bill for super accounts with more than $3 million in assets. Beyond this, nothing has been done to address the structural challenges within the Budget. Meanwhile, there is already unrest that the Job Seeker allowance is not being increased sufficiently to pull recipients out of poverty, with cost of living pressures at record highs for Australia’s most vulnerable people. All at a time when the Budget is in surplus. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

End of content