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Quarterly Economic Update: January-March 2022

27 April, 202220 April, 2022 Updated on20 April, 2022 COVID-19, Economy, Investing

Robust domestic economic growth Australia is rebounding from the pandemic, with domestic economic growth forecast to reach 3.5 per cent this financial year. Some analysts predict it might be even stronger, possibly reaching as high as 4 per cent. Driven by Government spending Much of this is due to the lingering impact of the Federal Government’s massive $343 billion health and economic pandemic support packages, as well as further spending in response to recent floods in New South Wales and Queensland. The Government is also spending some $18 billion on infrastructure, mostly rail and road improvements, in an attempt to boost productivity and efficiencies throughout the economy, particularly in the regions. Tightening geo-political tensions in Asia and around the world has prompted the Government to earmark as much spending again on strategic defence measures, including a new naval submarine base on the east coast. Spurred by higher commodity prices The sudden, and largely unexpected, war in Ukraine has prompted a spike in oil prices as a shadow falls over the continued supply of Russian oil and gas to Western Europe. While prices will ease with the arrival of the Northern summer, they are expected to remain stubbornly high. The war, along with continued supply interruptions due to the pandemic’s lingering impact on world trade, means prices for key commodities such as iron ore, coal, and wheat will remain high for the foreseeable future. For Australia, this is, on balance, good news, meaning the price we are paid for key exports will remain strong, driving both domestic profits and Government tax revenue higher. Employment is exploding In line with this strong level of economic growth, domestic unemployment is set to fall to 3.75 per cent in the coming months, its lowest level in some 50 years. Meanwhile, whole sectors, such as the aged care and child-minding sectors and a number of agricultural sectors, are reporting desperate staff shortages, prompting calls to lift migration levels and allow more temporary workers into the country. Nonetheless, low wage growth continues to dog the economy. While the Government is forecasting quarterly wage growth of 3.25 per cent by the middle of next year, this is still below the expected inflation rate, meaning most Australians will face little relief from higher living costs. However, the continued strength of Government spending, combined with prevailing strong terms of trade, should boost profits across the board, leading to higher returns for investors. Despite some clouds on the horizon As always, there are clouds on the horizon. The United States was already facing inflationary pressures, and the impact of the Ukraine war on oil prices is likely to push the US inflation rate higher still, possibly touching 7.9 per cent this year. The US Federal Reserve has started to pull monetary policy back in with a series of interest rate hikes, fanning fears that the US economy may fall into recession later this year. The US is not alone. The Australian Federal Treasury expects global trade bottlenecks (the war in Ukraine and higher oil and food prices) to prompt an uptick in the local inflation rate above the Reserve Bank’s preferred inflation band of 2.5 to 3 per cent. Rising inflation is, in turn, spurring fears of a domestic interest rate hike, with many analysts expecting the cash rate to increase by one full percentage point, which could cause home loan rates to rise across the country. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Quarterly Economic Update: October-December 2021

19 January, 202220 April, 2022 Updated on20 April, 2022 COVID-19, Economy, Investing

Coronavirus Victoria and New South Wales saw their economies roar back to life as they emerged from lockdown just in time for a new kid to arrive on the coronavirus block. Omicron spread around the world seemingly within days knocking Delta off the front pages. Appearing to cause less severe disease than previous strains, and with Australia achieving high rates of immunisation, state governments held off resorting to lockdowns in an attempt to minimise financial carnage on businesses and workers. All this battling against the virus comes at an enormous cost. The mid-year budget update forecasts annual deficits of around $100 billion for the next few years, no surplus over the next ten years, and gross debt of $1.2 trillion by 2024-2025. Jobs galore The unemployment rate dipped to 4.6% in November as an additional 366,100 people joined the ranks of the employed. The under-employment rate fell 2% to 7.5%, and many employers reported difficulties in finding staff. Homebuyer hopes Homebuyers gained a little power over sellers towards the end of the year as a surge in listings saw auction clearance rates in Melbourne and Sydney drop to 66% and 73% respectively. If this extra supply is maintained it should help to cool what has been a very hot property market. COP this The Covid-delayed climate change conference COP26 was finally held in Glasgow, and Australia joined the large number of countries aiming to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050. Good progress was made in some areas, such as reducing methane emissions, ending deforestation and, for some countries, phasing down coal. However, modelling predicts that if all current commitments are fulfilled we will still see temperatures rise by 2.4 degrees. This is well short of the Paris Agreement goal to limit warming to 2 degrees, and preferably 1.5 degrees. The Glasgow Climate pact calls on nations to “strengthen their pledges to reduce emissions by the end of 2022.” Expensive energy Major energy users suffered from a big spike in the costs of both coal and natural gas during the quarter. Prices corrected abruptly in November, but still remained much higher than at the start of the year. Oil prices were also higher, nudging US$85 per barrel during October and November. Aside from hitting consumers’ petrol and home energy bills, high energy prices also led to an increase in the cost of, and shortages of urea – a chemical that is critical to the production of fertilizer (and therefore food) and to keeping diesel trucks on the road. Ups and downs The volatility in the value of the Aussie dollar against major currencies continued for the quarter. It traded between 70 US cents and 75 US cents in line with its long-term trend. We gained more than 3.7% against the Euro and Yen, and held ground against the British Pound. The local share market failed to excite, tracking sideways before putting on a small end of year spurt that saw the S&P ASX 200 close the quarter up 1.5%. It was a different story for US stocks. The S&P500 closed out the year at a record high after lifting nearly 11% for the quarter. The Nasdaq was close behind with a 9% gain. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Economic Update: July-September 2021

7 October, 20217 October, 2021 COVID-19, Economy

COVID here to stay The third quarter of the calendar year brought with it the third and by far the biggest wave in COVID-19 infections. Largely restricted to NSW and Victoria the outbreak was driven by the highly infectious Delta variant. Such was its speed of spread it forced a change in strategy from one of elimination to learning to live with the virus, supported by a massive vaccination campaign. By quarter’s end vaccination rates were closing in on key targets that will allow a slow and selective lifting of the severe lockdown conditions that have prevailed for months. Time to chill You know Australia has a housing problem when the head of one of the big banks, in this case Matt Comyn at CBA, calls for action “sooner rather than later” to stop the property market overheating. This was on the back of CoreLogic data showing house prices in Melbourne and Sydney rose 15.6% and 26% respectively over the 12 months to August. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also called on Australian regulators to cool the market. Don’t expect this to happen through the usual instrument of increased interest rates. Rather, look for reduced lending in specific sectors, such as investors, higher deposit requirements, or testing loan serviceability at higher interest rates. Pop goes iron ore Iron ore’s price bubble eventually popped as China instructed its steelmakers to cut back on production. Over the quarter the ore price fell 45%, with major miners taking an equivalent hit. BHP, Rio and Fortescue saw their shares tumble 33%, 26% and 44% respectively. Hot topic In August the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its latest report. It warned that “unless there are immediate, rapid and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, limiting warming to 1.5°C or even 2°C will be beyond reach”. The report paints a grim picture of what that warmer world will look like and returned climate change to the front pages of the world’s newspapers. The numbers Equity markets experienced a bit of a rollercoaster ride over the quarter. All the major indices posted record highs, but most ended up within 1% of where they started. The Aussie dollar also had a volatile quarter, trading between 71 and 75.4 US cents and finishing at 72 cents. It was a similar story against the other major currencies. In both cases the late-quarter sell-offs were blamed on expectations of higher US interest rates. On the radar Many of the world’s leaders will come together in Glasgow at the end of October for the 26th UN Climate Change Conference (COP26). If they heed the warning from the IPCC, and if they agree to take the necessary steps to limit warming to 2°C (and preferably 1.5°C), it will set the scene for a dramatic economic transformation, with huge opportunities for those who can sort the winners from the losers. Of more immediate concern, Chinese property company China Evergrande appears to be on the brink of collapse. Heavily indebted to the tune of US$300 billion, if it is allowed to fail it is likely to have global ramifications, not the least for Australia. China’s construction boom has been a huge driver of demand for our iron ore. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Economic Update: April-June 2021

21 July, 202114 July, 2021 Updated on14 July, 2021 COVID-19, Economy

Employment surprise JobKeeper was a cornerstone of Australia’s response to the coronavirus pandemic. It provided millions of Australians with an ongoing income and kept thousands of businesses afloat, so when it came to an end in March expectations were that there would be a sharp spike in unemployment. One estimate was that 150,000 workers would lose their jobs. Happily, that wasn’t what happened. From March to April the unemployment rate dropped from 5.7% to 5.5%, then fell to just 5.1% in May. That’s below the 5.2% that applied in January 2020 before the pandemic hit, and an amazing outcome given the damage that COVID-19 continues to inflict on a virus-weary world. Housing continued to sizzle… Aspiring homeowners and upsizers endured another quarter of woe as home prices continued to soar. Nationally, dwelling prices were up 6.1% for the quarter and 13.5% for the year, with houses outperforming units. Of course, on the other side of the equation are homeowners, many of whom are delighted by the significant boost to their wealth. Continuing low interest rates remain the key driver, but other issues have played a part, including stamp duty discounts and households redirecting the cash they would otherwise have spent on overseas holidays. Lockdowns last year also affected the normal supply of property leading to pent-up demand. As subsidies are rolled back, supply and demand normalise and if population growth remains low, property price growth may well come back to ‘normal’ levels. And despite the RBA not expecting to raise interest rates until at least 2024, some economists are pointing to the low unemployment figures to predict that interest rates may begin to rise by the end of 2022. There is also growing speculation that the RBA and APRA will lift lending standards (e.g. requiring lower loan to valuation ratios) in order to rein in galloping price growth. …as did share markets Global markets performed strongly over the quarter with many setting record highs. Locally the S&P/ASX200 rose 7.7%, beating the MSCI All-Country World Equity Index, which was up 6.9%. Tech shares were back in the lead with the NASDAQ gaining 11.2%, while the S&P500 rose steadily to gain 8.6%. The Aussie dollar fell slightly against the major currencies weakening late in the quarter following talk that the next move in US interest rates may be up. Also… – Workers receiving the minimum wage will see a boost to their pay packets from July, with the minimum wage rising by 2.5% to $772.60 per week or $20.33 per hour. – Most people will see the superannuation guarantee (SG) payment from their employers rise by 0.5% to 10% of normal wages. This is one step on the path to raising the SG to 12% by 2025. – According to Credit Suisse, nearly one in ten Australians are now millionaires. Twenty years ago the figure was less than 1%. Of course a million dollars today doesn’t have the buying power it did 20 years ago, but only Switzerland has more millionaires per capita than we do. – Massive infrastructure projects and home renovation booms have caused a global shortage of building materials. An indicator, perhaps, that some COVID-19 stimulus measures have been a tad overdone? The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

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