Quarterly Economic Update: July-September 2024

10 October, 202410 October, 2024 Economy, Finance, Investing

The Australian economy is still growing, but things are moving slower than usual, and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is being cautious with any changes to interest rates. They’re waiting for inflation to settle before taking further action.

GDP Growth: Slowly But Surely

While the economy is growing, it’s not as fast as we might like. Over the June quarter, the economy expanded by just 0.2%, with a 1.5% growth over the financial year. While these numbers sound positive, when you factor in Australia’s growing population, the story changes. For the sixth quarter in a row, GDP per capita (which looks at economic growth per person) has actually fallen. This shows that while Australia as a whole is growing, individuals may not feel that impact, especially with rising costs of living.

Interest Rates: Holding Steady

In September, the RBA decided to keep interest rates on hold at 4.35%, with the next decision due in November. While the US recently cut rates, Australia hasn’t followed suit, and it’s unlikely we’ll see any rate cuts before Christmas. The RBA is holding off to ensure inflation is well under control, despite it being much lower than the peak in 2022.

Inflation: Better But Still Stubborn

Annual inflation hit 3.8% in the June quarter, slightly up from March. However, there’s good news: underlying inflation (which strips out the more volatile price changes) has been falling for six straight quarters, down from its peak of 6.8% in late 2022. That said, prices for everyday goods remain high, and the overall cost of living is still squeezing households.

Households Are Tightening Their Belts

With cost-of-living pressures building, many Australians are cutting back on things like travel and entertainment. Even grocery spending is down, with households trimming their food budgets by 1%. However, spending on household goods, like furniture and appliances, increased by 4%, which propped up discretionary spending overall.

Housing Market: Prices Still Going Up

The property market remains strong, with housing values continuing to rise across Australia, although at a slower pace than before. CoreLogic reports that the national Home Value Index rose by 0.5% in August and a further 0.4% in September. Despite the cost of living, demand for property remains high, which is keeping prices elevated.

Jobs Market: Still Tight, But Productivity Is Falling

Australia’s unemployment rate remains low, sitting at 4.1% as of June, which is historically strong. However, total hours worked rose only slightly, and productivity—measured by GDP per hour worked—fell by 0.8%. While jobs remain secure for many Australians, people are working more for less output, and this could become a concern for long-term economic stability.

Global Outlook: Uncertainty Ahead

Globally, central banks are starting to look at easing monetary policies, but it’s still unclear how much they’ll ease up. Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, Ukraine, and northern Africa are causing further instability. Meanwhile, Asia’s economy, a key trading partner for Australia, is expected to slow in 2024, which could have a knock-on effect on our own economic growth.

What It All Means for You

For everyday Australians, the combination of high interest rates, sticky inflation, and rising living costs means it’s more important than ever to manage your finances carefully. Mortgage holders won’t see relief from rate cuts soon, and households should continue to be mindful of their budgets, especially with the cost of essentials like groceries and petrol still fluctuating.

If you’re feeling the pinch, now is a good time to seek professional advice and ensure you have a financial plan in place that helps you navigate these uncertain times.

The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice. 

Charting a course to financial recovery

27 February, 202427 February, 2024 Budgeting, Education, Finance

Australian Bureau of Statistics, (ABS) figures indicate that between 2017-2018 and 2019-2020 total average household debt rose from $190,000 to $204,000. That’s an increase of over 7% in two years! The reasons why would make for an interesting study, however a more pressing question might be what can we do about it? Combine high levels of debt with rising interest rates and a cost-of-living crisis, and it’s no surprise that Australian households are reaching out to Debt Management (DM) companies to help regain control of their finances. DM companies are private organisations that can assist by: Sometimes, DM companies repay your debts – to a specified limit – and you repay them under a single loan arrangement. Terms and payment amounts can be negotiated, offering a beacon of hope and a sense that you’re taking back control. If this sounds like the perfect solution, remember that for every pro, there’s usually a con. For example: While weighing the pros and cons of a DM service, here are a few do-it-yourself strategies for consideration. Budgeting Creating a budget is a 3-step process. The government’s Moneysmart website lists easy ways of cutting back everyday spending. Negotiating Rather than customers defaulting, most banks and utilities companies prefer to negotiate repayment terms, sometimes even offering assistance programs. The key is to reach out before it’s too late. Be upfront about your situation and willing to arrive at a mutually beneficial arrangement. Remember, nobody wins when debts are not paid. Government assistance The Australian government provides a range of financial assistance packages and interest-free loans depending on circumstances. These include crisis payments for unexpected situations, and income support payments for cost of living expenses. Of course there are conditions, but further information, including application criteria, is available from the MyGov website. Financial counselling Financial counsellors help you understand your financial position and assist you to navigate your way out of difficulty. Some local communities offer free, or low-cost, financial literacy programs, aimed at providing education about money and debt reduction. Everyone’s financial position is unique. There’s no one-size-fits-all, so it’s important that your action plan is specific to your needs and that you’re 100% comfortable with any decisions you make. If you’re uncertain, seek the assistance of a qualified financial planner. What’s crucial is that you do something; being proactive is empowering and sets you on the path to financial recovery. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice. 

Investing: How to reduce concentration risk

27 October, 202127 October, 2021 Investing

Concentration risk. No, it’s nothing to do with thinking too hard about something. In fact, it’s more likely to be a result of not paying enough attention. Concentration risk is the increase in investment risk that comes about from not sufficiently diversifying your portfolio. In other words, too much money is concentrated in too few assets, sectors or geographical markets. This can happen: Intentionally, because you have a strong belief that a particular share or sector, such as resources, banks or property, is likely to outperform in the future. Unintentionally, through asset performance. One or two shares deliver spectacular gains, making the entire portfolio more sensitive to moves in just a couple of assets. Or maybe shares as a whole enjoy a period of strong growth. Even though you hold a large number of different shares, the increased exposure to one asset class increases the risk to your portfolio. Accidentally, through poor asset selection. As at December 2020, nine of the ten top companies that make up the MSCI World Index also appear on the top ten list of the main US index, the S&P 500. Investing in two funds, one that tracks the world market and one that tracks the US market won’t deliver the level of diversification you might expect. Managing your risk The solution to concentration risk is our old friend, diversification. Appreciate the importance of asset allocation, the art of spreading your money across the main asset classes of shares, property, fixed interest and cash. Ensure your asset allocation matches your tolerance to investment risk. Diversify within each asset class. Holding the big four banks is not a diversified share portfolio. If property is your thing, buying four one-bedroom apartments in the same building, or even in the same area, creates a huge concentration risk. Understand each investment and its role in your portfolio. Does share fund A hold similar shares as share fund B? Do they both have the same strategy? Get a professional opinion. Even if you are confident in making your own investment decisions it’s wise to run them by a licensed adviser. It’s surprisingly common for investors to develop an emotional attachment to particular shares or properties they own. Concentration risk can also increase over time due to lack of attention. Your financial planner will assess your portfolio for hidden concentration risk and help you achieve a better balance of investments. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Quarterly Economic Update: October-December 2021

19 January, 202220 April, 2022 Updated on20 April, 2022 COVID-19, Economy, Investing

Coronavirus Victoria and New South Wales saw their economies roar back to life as they emerged from lockdown just in time for a new kid to arrive on the coronavirus block. Omicron spread around the world seemingly within days knocking Delta off the front pages. Appearing to cause less severe disease than previous strains, and with Australia achieving high rates of immunisation, state governments held off resorting to lockdowns in an attempt to minimise financial carnage on businesses and workers. All this battling against the virus comes at an enormous cost. The mid-year budget update forecasts annual deficits of around $100 billion for the next few years, no surplus over the next ten years, and gross debt of $1.2 trillion by 2024-2025. Jobs galore The unemployment rate dipped to 4.6% in November as an additional 366,100 people joined the ranks of the employed. The under-employment rate fell 2% to 7.5%, and many employers reported difficulties in finding staff. Homebuyer hopes Homebuyers gained a little power over sellers towards the end of the year as a surge in listings saw auction clearance rates in Melbourne and Sydney drop to 66% and 73% respectively. If this extra supply is maintained it should help to cool what has been a very hot property market. COP this The Covid-delayed climate change conference COP26 was finally held in Glasgow, and Australia joined the large number of countries aiming to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050. Good progress was made in some areas, such as reducing methane emissions, ending deforestation and, for some countries, phasing down coal. However, modelling predicts that if all current commitments are fulfilled we will still see temperatures rise by 2.4 degrees. This is well short of the Paris Agreement goal to limit warming to 2 degrees, and preferably 1.5 degrees. The Glasgow Climate pact calls on nations to “strengthen their pledges to reduce emissions by the end of 2022.” Expensive energy Major energy users suffered from a big spike in the costs of both coal and natural gas during the quarter. Prices corrected abruptly in November, but still remained much higher than at the start of the year. Oil prices were also higher, nudging US$85 per barrel during October and November. Aside from hitting consumers’ petrol and home energy bills, high energy prices also led to an increase in the cost of, and shortages of urea – a chemical that is critical to the production of fertilizer (and therefore food) and to keeping diesel trucks on the road. Ups and downs The volatility in the value of the Aussie dollar against major currencies continued for the quarter. It traded between 70 US cents and 75 US cents in line with its long-term trend. We gained more than 3.7% against the Euro and Yen, and held ground against the British Pound. The local share market failed to excite, tracking sideways before putting on a small end of year spurt that saw the S&P ASX 200 close the quarter up 1.5%. It was a different story for US stocks. The S&P500 closed out the year at a record high after lifting nearly 11% for the quarter. The Nasdaq was close behind with a 9% gain. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Quarterly Economic Update: January-March 2021

14 April, 20217 April, 2021 Updated on7 April, 2021 COVID-19, Economy, Investing

The global COVID-19 jab-fest gathered pace with some countries, including Israel and the United Kingdom, achieving high rates of immunisation. However, the rollout has had some issues. Rare side effects linked to the AstraZeneca vaccine saw a number of countries suspend its use for a period of time, and Australia was slow off the mark with its immunisation rollout. The longer it takes to vaccinate the world, the slower the economic recovery. Hot property Pushing COVID-19 off the front pages was the big jump in residential property prices. Nationally, CoreLogic’s home value index jumped 5.8% for the quarter. Sydney led the jump with a 6.7% lift. In March alone the index rose 2.8%, the biggest rise in 32 years. Most of the action was on the first home and owner-occupiers front, though investor purchases were also up. The main fuel being added to the property price fire is ongoing low interest rates. With the RBA indicating rates will most likely remain low for years, that could continue to inflate property values and see more people priced out of the market. Helping to fuel the market was good employment numbers. Seasonally adjusted, the ABS reported an unemployment rate of 5.8% in February, down from 6.3% in January. However, this counts people on JobKeeper as employed. Taking this into account, Roy Morgan put unemployment at 13.2% in February, with 21% of the workforce either unemployed or under-employed. Blocked artery In late March the container ship Ever Given provided a graphic example of how small things can have a huge impact. Strong wind gusts saw the giant ship wedge itself bank to bank across the Suez Canal, one of the world’s main shipping arteries. Suddenly 30% of world container shipping ground to a halt. Fortunately, the ship was freed after a few days, and the backlog of ships was cleared a few days after that, but it was a stark reminder of how vulnerable large parts of the economy are. Key numbers The pace of recovery in the local and international share markets slowed during the quarter as prices crept close to or exceeded their pre-pandemic levels. The S&P/ASX200 rose 3.1%, trailing the MSCI All-Country World Equity Index, which was up 4.2%. Tech shares ran out of puff with the NASDAQ only gaining 1.4%, while the S&P500 surged late in the quarter to gain 6.1%. The outlook Many countries are experiencing third and fourth waves of COVID-19, and it’s a fair bet that the virus will continue to dictate the way we live for some time to come. But it’s not the only game in town. US President Joe Biden has taken climate change off the back burner and moved it front and centre. That means our government and businesses will need to pay it a lot more attention too. Expect carbon tariffs to become a hot topic. On the local front, with interest rates all but ruled out as a tool for managing the residential property boom, talk is turning to the use of regulatory methods to dampen demand. These could involve requiring bigger deposits or limiting the rate of credit growth. And with JobKeeper now wound up employment figures will come under close scrutiny. Expect to see a jump in unemployment this current quarter. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

What can you tell your employees about Super?

14 November, 20188 September, 2022 Updated on8 September, 2022 Finance

It’s a common question asked by employees: “what should I do about my super?” If you are an employer or manager and feel confident of your knowledge of superannuation and investment, it can be tempting to give an answer. However, just about anything helpful you have to say will likely fall within the definition of giving financial product advice, and that could land you in very hot water. The boundaries Financial product advice is a recommendation or statement of opinion that: is intended to influence a person or persons in making a decision in relation to a financial product or class of products; or could reasonably be regarded as being intended to have such an influence. The Corporations Act casts a wide net. Financial product advice can include anything you say about: joining, or making contributions to, a superannuation fund; making additional contributions to a super fund, including by salary sacrifice; rolling accumulated superannuation into or out of a fund; and selecting particular investment or insurance options within a superannuation fund. The ability to provide advice is generally restricted to holders of an Australian Financial Services Licence or their representatives. Very few employers, or their staff, fall into this category, and giving financial product advice, even inadvertently, could lead to prosecution. What can you talk about? You can provide factual information that does not include a recommendation, an opinion, or an intention to influence a person’s decision regarding their super. This allows you to provide information about: employees’ rights and employer obligations; how your employees can tell you what superannuation fund or retirement savings account (RSA) they want their superannuation guarantee contributions paid into; or the employer fund into which you will pay superannuation guarantee contributions if the employee doesn’t nominate a superannuation fund or RSA. You can also give your employees the Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) of your default superannuation fund. Just don’t provide any explanation of the material it contains or attempt to recommend the default fund. How can you help? None of this precludes you from helping your employees. You just need to go about it the right way. For example, you can refer employees to a licensed or authorised adviser. Just be sure to disclose any benefit you may gain from making such a referral. Or you can ask a superannuation fund provider to make a presentation to your employees. Take care, though, that you don’t give the impression of either endorsing or disapproving of the fund in question. Being asked for advice is recognition that your employees respect your views and knowledge. It can be flattering and you may well know a great deal about superannuation and investment. However, without the necessary authorisation, you need to steer well clear of financial product advice. And it’s not just you who needs to be aware of these restrictions. You need to ensure that your HR staff and line managers are also aware. What can you tell your employees about Super 14/11/2018 This is general information only

Quarterly Economic Update: July – September 2020

21 October, 202017 September, 2021 Updated on17 September, 2021 Finance, Investing

COVID-19 remained the big story of the last quarter. Tragically, by the end of September the pandemic had caused over one million deaths. That was up by 500,000 since the end of the previous quarter, and many countries were experiencing devastating ‘second waves’. While most of Australia managed to keep case numbers of coronavirus at very low levels, Victoria provided a case study in the severe human and economic impacts of having the virus escape control. Now it is epidemiologists, rather than economists, that we look to for advice on how to transition to a post-pandemic world. Unemployment ups and downs The official unemployment rate from the Australian Bureau of Statistics was 7.5% in July, but showed a welcome drop to 6.8% in August. Meanwhile, NSW claimed that 70% of jobs initially lost in the pandemic had been restored. However, when JobKeeper, people working zero hours but classified as employed, and a big jump in gig workers are taken into account, the real unemployment rate is much higher. Roy Morgan estimated that the actual unemployment rate is closer to 13.8% and the combined unemployment and under-employment rate is 22.8%. Still, both these figures were down from their peak in late March. Property problems The major property markets of Sydney and Melbourne declined for the fourth month in a row, with the ABS reporting that in the June quarter these major city housing markets dropped by 2.6 and 2.8% respectively. And the outlook for housing construction is none too rosy. Australia relies on immigration to generate the population growth that stimulates construction and supports the prices of existing dwellings. With our borders effectively closed that population growth will either be delayed or will fail to materialise. Rental income is also expected to decline, particularly in markets with a high proportion of overseas students who are unable to return to Australia. The markets After a bit of a rally through July and August the local share market ran out of steam, with the S&P 500 index finishing the quarter down by 1.4%. International markets continued to produce some excitement. Despite weakening a little towards the end of the quarter the MSCI All-Country World Equity Index rose 7.2%. Much of this was attributable to the US market with the S&P500 up 7.6% and the NASDAQ up 10.2%. The Aussie dollar also weakened slightly towards the end of the quarter, finishing flat against the Euro and British Pound, up 2% against the Yen, and up 3.8% (from the high 60s to low 70s) against the US Dollar. The outlook If you thought that interest rates couldn’t go any lower, think again. The RBA has flagged the possibility of a further cut in the cash rate with commentators predicting a cut of 15 basis points to take the rate to just 0.1%. Internationally, the US presidential election could see an increase in market volatility with the final outcome anything but certain. For further information on current market conditions, contact us. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

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