Quarterly Economic Update: January-March 2021

14 April, 20217 April, 2021 Updated on7 April, 2021 COVID-19, Economy, Investing

The global COVID-19 jab-fest gathered pace with some countries, including Israel and the United Kingdom, achieving high rates of immunisation. However, the rollout has had some issues. Rare side effects linked to the AstraZeneca vaccine saw a number of countries suspend its use for a period of time, and Australia was slow off the mark with its immunisation rollout. The longer it takes to vaccinate the world, the slower the economic recovery.

Hot property

Pushing COVID-19 off the front pages was the big jump in residential property prices. Nationally, CoreLogic’s home value index jumped 5.8% for the quarter. Sydney led the jump with a 6.7% lift. In March alone the index rose 2.8%, the biggest rise in 32 years. Most of the action was on the first home and owner-occupiers front, though investor purchases were also up.

The main fuel being added to the property price fire is ongoing low interest rates. With the RBA indicating rates will most likely remain low for years, that could continue to inflate property values and see more people priced out of the market.

Helping to fuel the market was good employment numbers. Seasonally adjusted, the ABS reported an unemployment rate of 5.8% in February, down from 6.3% in January. However, this counts people on JobKeeper as employed. Taking this into account, Roy Morgan put unemployment at 13.2% in February, with 21% of the workforce either unemployed or under-employed.

Blocked artery

In late March the container ship Ever Given provided a graphic example of how small things can have a huge impact. Strong wind gusts saw the giant ship wedge itself bank to bank across the Suez Canal, one of the world’s main shipping arteries. Suddenly 30% of world container shipping ground to a halt. Fortunately, the ship was freed after a few days, and the backlog of ships was cleared a few days after that, but it was a stark reminder of how vulnerable large parts of the economy are.

Key numbers

The pace of recovery in the local and international share markets slowed during the quarter as prices crept close to or exceeded their pre-pandemic levels. The S&P/ASX200 rose 3.1%, trailing the MSCI All-Country World Equity Index, which was up 4.2%. Tech shares ran out of puff with the NASDAQ only gaining 1.4%, while the S&P500 surged late in the quarter to gain 6.1%.

The outlook

Many countries are experiencing third and fourth waves of COVID-19, and it’s a fair bet that the virus will continue to dictate the way we live for some time to come.

But it’s not the only game in town. US President Joe Biden has taken climate change off the back burner and moved it front and centre. That means our government and businesses will need to pay it a lot more attention too. Expect carbon tariffs to become a hot topic.

On the local front, with interest rates all but ruled out as a tool for managing the residential property boom, talk is turning to the use of regulatory methods to dampen demand. These could involve requiring bigger deposits or limiting the rate of credit growth.

And with JobKeeper now wound up employment figures will come under close scrutiny. Expect to see a jump in unemployment this current quarter.

The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Building financial resilience

24 November, 202118 November, 2021 Updated on18 November, 2021 Budgeting

Resilience is the ability to quickly recover from setbacks, and while setbacks can come in many forms most of them will have a financial component. So what can you do to build financial resilience? Expect the unexpected Rarely do we get advance warning that something bad is about to happen to us, so the time to develop your resilience strategy is now. And while we don’t know the specifics, we can anticipate events that would throw our finances into disarray. A house burning down or a car being stolen. Not being able to work due to illness or injury. The death of a breadwinner or caregiver. With some idea of the type of threat we face we may be able to insure against some of them. If you have taken out any type of insurance policy you’ve already made a start on your resilience plan. Create buffers You can’t insure against every possibility, but you can build financial buffers. This might simply be a savings account that you earmark as your emergency fund that you contribute to each payday. If your home loan offers a redraw facility you can also create a buffer by getting ahead on your mortgage repayments. Buffers can be particularly important for retirees drawing a pension from their super fund. Redeeming growth assets for cash in order to make pension payments during a market downturn can lead to a depletion of capital and reduction in how long the money will last. By maintaining a cash buffer of, say, two year’s worth of pension payments, redemptions of growth assets can be deferred, giving time for the market to recover. Cut costs The Internet abounds with tips on how to cut costs and save money. In difficult economic times cost cutting can help you maintain your financial buffers and important insurances. Key to cost cutting is tracking your income and expenditure and yes, that means doing a budget. Find the right budgeting app for you and this chore could actually be fun. Invest in quality There are many companies out there that have long track records of consistently pumping out profits and dividends. They may not be as exciting (i.e. volatile) as the latest techno fad stocks but when markets get the jitters these blue chip companies are more likely to maintain their value than the newcomers. This is important. The more volatile a portfolio the more likely an investor is to sell down into a declining market. This turns paper losses into real ones, depriving the investor the opportunity to ride the market back up again. The other key tool in creating resilient portfolios is diversification. Buying a range of investments both within and across the major asset classes is a fundamental strategy for managing portfolio volatility. With a well-diversified portfolio of quality assets there is less need to regularly buy and sell individual investments. Unnecessary trading can create ‘tax drag’ where the realisation of even a marginal capital gain triggers a capital gains tax event and consequent reduction in portfolio value. Take advice Building financial resilience can be a complicated process requiring an understanding of a range of issues that need to be balanced against one another and prioritised. Your financial planner is ideally placed to assist you in developing your own, personalised plan for financial resilience. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Mistakes new investors should avoid

18 August, 202113 August, 2021 Updated on13 August, 2021 Education, Investing

You’re young, expecting a satisfying future brimming with friends, family and a comfortable lifestyle. You’re a Next Generation Investor, likely aged between 18 and 25, and you’re starting to think about financial security. According to an Australian Stock Exchange study, nearly a quarter of all investors over the past two years were Next Generation Investors. Additionally, some 27% of surveyed people under age 25 intend to invest over the next year. The excitement of embarking on a journey toward financial freedom is common, as is confusion, after all, in the rush of enthusiasm, how can you ensure you get the decisions made for the future, right today? What are the rookie mistakes to watch out for? Here are a few that can be easily avoided. Not clearing debt first Loans and credit cards have a knack for eating away income. It is recommended that you clear as much debt as possible before committing to serious investments. Track your spending to spot potential savings, then channel that cash towards your debts. Every little bit helps. No strategy Desire to build wealth through investment is not a strategy. The end game determines which investments will be most suitable. Consider how you feel about risk and whether you’ll need access to your money. Successful investment strategies are planned. If it feels overwhelming, seek professional advice to help you build your strategy. You’ll be surprised at how inexpensive a financial adviser can be. Not diversifying Generally speaking, the higher the potential return, the higher the potential risk. Market-linked investments, like shares, can be big-earners, but you’ll have to ride economic ups-and-downs to get there – sometimes for ten years or more. If this worries you, consider lower-risk investments. Conservative in nature, their returns are generally lower. Decide how much risk you’re comfortable with. You may be better off minimising exposure to high-risk assets by diversifying your portfolio with a variety of investment types. Trying to predict the market Investment markets are notoriously unpredictable. Buying shares at the wrong time can mean you pay more than you should, similarly, selling at the wrong time can result in losses. Short-term buying and selling might seem exciting, but it’s a fast-track to losing money. The way around this is, research, diversification and being prepared to stay the distance. Review No investment is a set-and-forget scheme. Always keep track of your savings and your ongoing investment plan, ensuring that it continues to align with your goals, particularly as they change over time. A new car may be your priority today but fast-forward a couple of years and perhaps marriage and children are your priorities. As your goals change, so must your investment strategy. A few other things… Fees and taxes are unavoidable and various investments attract different expenses and tax structures. Find out what you’re up for before making financial decisions. Feeling lost? The Australian Stock Exchange offers free online courses and the Government’s MoneySmart website has a free info Starter Pack to get you underway. Of course, nothing beats professional advice tailored to your needs. The Financial Planning Association of Australia will put you in touch with a qualified adviser suitable for you. Strategic investing sets you up financially and helps create a savings habit for life. Your financial future begins today. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Quarterly Economic Update: July-September 2022

12 October, 202212 October, 2022 Economy, Finance

As geo-political tensions tighten in Ukraine, economies around the world are reeling from mounting energy prices, soaring costs of living and in a desperate attempt to bring down inflation, higher interest rates. The US economy appears certain to fall into recession. Markets have suddenly become volatile as shares are sold in preference to holding funds in defensive assets such as cash. This in turn is reaping havoc on world currency markets. Funds are flooding into US dollar denominated investments and in doing so, are sending the value of the greenback sky high against other currencies. Speculation is mounting that the British pound may fall to historic lows in coming months and may even reach parity with the US dollar, driven by the newly elected Prime Minister Liz Truss, implementing a big borrowing, low taxing budget. This controversial attempt to boost the British economy comes at a time when central banks around the world, including the Bank of England, are lifting interest rates in order to reduce economic activity and so, dramatically slow the rate of inflation. The Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development is now forecasting economic growth will slow from 2.8 to 2.2 per cent during the next twelve months as the United States, China and Europe all cut back on economic activity. While Australia is not spared from this global slowdown, with the OECD forecasting domestic growth will tumble from 2.5 to 2 per cent during the coming year, it should survive this turbulent period better than most. Much will depend on this month’s Federal Budget. The first by the newly elected Albanese Government, it will tread a line between its reform agenda including much talk about tax cuts and trying to slow the economy and so reduce inflation. Although the employment rate across the nation remains high, spiralling prices for basic foodstuffs and other essentials is putting enormous pressure on the Government to provide relief to those struggling to get by. In the meantime, petrol prices are set to bounce higher as the Federal Government restores the fuel excise tax, adding 23 cents a litre to both petrol and diesel sold in Australia. In addition, the Reserve Bank has made it clear it will continue to lift the domestic cash rate and with it most other local interest rates, until it has clawed back the rate of inflation from an expected high of 7 per cent, to less than 3 per cent. Higher interest rates are already impacting homebuyers. Five rate rises since May, mean a couple earning $92,000 each, can now borrow $264,000 less than they could in April according to analysis by the research house, Canstar. So even with a 20 per cent deposit, a couple’s maximum budget has dropped from more than $1.63 million to $1.37 million and this in turn is being reflected by prices in the property market. As buyer’s budgets have fallen, so too have property prices. CoreLogic Home Value Index shows house prices in Sydney have dropped by 7.6 per cent this year while Melbourne prices have fallen by 4.6 per cent. With the Reserve Bank determined to force even higher interest rates on the economy in order to defeat inflation, there is no end in sight to higher interest rates and further property price falls. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

What does it take to become a millionaire?

16 February, 20229 February, 2022 Updated on9 February, 2022 Budgeting, Investing

There are three key components to a successful savings strategy. The first is some surplus cash; an amount of money you can regularly set aside in your quest to become a millionaire. Second, an investment return. This can be in the form of share dividends, interest income, rent from properties or a mix. You won’t be withdrawing any of these returns from your investment portfolio; you’ll reinvest the income so that you earn interest on your interest on your interest. This so called compounding of investment returns, when combined with the next ingredient, is what will really drive your growing wealth. That final ingredient? Time. So what might your path to millionaire status look like? Let’s say you’re in your 20s and you’re prepared to wait 40 years to achieve your goal. Plug the relevant numbers into the savings goals calculator at moneysmart.gov.au and it will tell you that, at an interest rate of 10% pa and starting with a $0 balance, you’ll need to save just $157 per month to hit your target, or around a cup of barista-brewed coffee a day. Your total contribution will be $75,360. The other $924,640 is from your investment returns. No wonder that some people view compounding returns as a form of magic. The benefits of starting early can’t be stressed enough. If you only have 20 years to devote to your get-rich plan, you’ll need to save $1,306 per month. If you can afford that you’ll still be a millionaire, but $313,440 of the total will be your hard-earned money. A real return Of course, a million dollars in 40 years time won’t have the same buying power as a million bucks today. You’ll also likely pay tax on at least some of your investment income and incur some investment management fees. After accounting for inflation, tax and fees, let’s say your real rate of return is 6% pa. This lifts the price of a ticket to the real millionaires club to $500 per month over 40 years. Going for growth With your timeframe and contribution rate settled you’ll need to design an investment portfolio that is likely to deliver your required return without taking on undue risk. With a long investment horizon, and particularly in periods of low interest rates, it’s appropriate to look to growth assets such as shares and property to provide the foundation of your portfolio. And don’t be daunted every time investment markets take a bit of a tumble. Instead see them as opportunities to pick up some bargains. A helping hand To make sure you make the most of your savings, understand investment issues and utilise the best tax structure talk to your financial adviser. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Economic Update: First quarter results reflect shock

8 April, 202021 December, 2020 Updated on21 December, 2020 Finance

The first quarter of 2020 will forever be remembered for delivering one of the greatest health and economic shocks of all time. The economic damage was an inevitable consequence of governments worldwide taking unprecedented action to curb the spread of the novel coronavirus that emerged in China in December 2019. Never have so many people in so many countries experienced such major upheaval to their daily lives at the one time. With numerous countries enacting harsh measures to reduce person-to-person spread of the virus, many sectors of most economies effectively ground to a halt. Tourism, travel, entertainment and hospitality were particularly badly affected, but the fallout will be felt far and wide for some time to come. By the numbersFinancial markets (and many governments) were slow to appreciate the magnitude of the coronavirus threat. Major share markets rose steadily, setting record highs on 20 February, then, as the likely economic consequences of tackling coronavirus became apparent, markets plunged. From its peak of 7,163 the S&P/ASX 200 index fell to 4,546 on 23 March. A rally then saw the index rise to 5,077 at the end of March, 24% down from the start of the quarter. In the US, the S&P 500 fell 34% from top to bottom. The MSCI All-Country World Equity Index dropped 35%. Both indices recovered ground at the end of the quarter to limit January to March losses to 18% and 21% respectively. The Reserve Bank moved quickly to further cut interest rates to 0.25%. This is as low as the RBA is prepared to go, with the Governor indicating this rate will be with us for several years come. Partly in response, and partly due to investors seeking the relative safety of the US dollar, the Australian dollar plunged from US$0.66 US to US$0.55. It then staged a partial recovery to end the quarter at US$0.61. Falls against other currencies were less severe. Massive stimulusGovernments around the world responded with programs that will, over time, pump almost unimaginable sums of money into the economy – hundreds of billions of dollars in Australia, trillions in the US. Banks have deferred some loan repayments, and many landlords will forgo rent payments. The focus is on helping employers retain staff, to provide income support to people who do lose their jobs, and to assist pensioners. One aim is to minimise economic disruption now to facilitate a quicker recovery once coronavirus is brought under control. However, despite these economic initiatives, escalating public health measures saw thousands of businesses close in March, with job losses estimated to be more than one million. While most of the economic stimulus measures were widely applauded, some concern was expressed over the ability of eligible people to withdraw up to $10,000 from superannuation this financial year, and again in 2020/2021. Withdrawing money from super at a time of depressed prices will likely have a major adverse impact on future superannuation savings, leading a number of observers to suggest that this option only be considered once all others have been exhausted. Few silver liningsIt’s difficult to find any silver linings in the clouds of the current crisis. While motorists may welcome the drop in petrol prices, due to oil falling from over US$60 per barrel to near US$20 per barrel, this is a sign of how hard the pandemic is hitting the economy. One small positive: with airlines grounded, people staying home and many industries closed, air pollution and carbon dioxide emissions are down. For advice on how to manage your investments through this financial downturn contact us today. This is general information only

Active or Index Funds: What’s Your Best Bet?

23 January, 202425 January, 2024 Updated on25 January, 2024 Investing

Ever glanced at a list of different managed funds and wondered why some have remarkably low fees compared to others? Chances are, the ones with lower fees are index funds, also known as passive funds. Over the last couple of decades, index investing has become increasingly popular, with big players like Vanguard and Blackrock managing trillions of dollars in assets (as of 2022). Before we dive into the reasons and consequences of this trend, let’s break down the two main investment styles: Active Investing: Index Investing: So, why has index investing gained so much ground? 1. Lower Fees: 2. Performance Challenges: For instance, at the end of 2022, 58% of Australian General Equity funds returned below the index. Over 5-, 10-, and 15-year horizons, the underperformance proportions were 81%, 78%, and 83%, respectively. Similar trends are observed in international equity markets. While choosing index funds may seem logical, it’s essential to consider their underlying premise. Returns come from income (like dividends) and changes in capital value over time. However, for the latter to happen, there must be market activity—investors trading securities. If everyone exclusively invested in indexes, the market would cease to exist. Index investing doesn’t screen shares, meaning investors get exposure to both ‘good’ and ‘bad’ companies. Also, there are no exclusions based on environmental, social, or governance (ESG) criteria, which some investors prioritise. In the active versus index debate, there’s no clear right or wrong. Many investor portfolios combine both approaches. Index funds or ETFs are often used for broad exposure, while active investment may be reserved for specialised exposure, such as smaller companies, property, or infrastructure. Regardless of your choice—active, index, or a mix—the fundamental principles of investing still apply: diversification and time in the market are key to building long-term wealth. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice. 

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