Quarterly Economic Update: January-March 2021

14 April, 20217 April, 2021 Updated on7 April, 2021 COVID-19, Economy, Investing

The global COVID-19 jab-fest gathered pace with some countries, including Israel and the United Kingdom, achieving high rates of immunisation. However, the rollout has had some issues. Rare side effects linked to the AstraZeneca vaccine saw a number of countries suspend its use for a period of time, and Australia was slow off the mark with its immunisation rollout. The longer it takes to vaccinate the world, the slower the economic recovery.

Hot property

Pushing COVID-19 off the front pages was the big jump in residential property prices. Nationally, CoreLogic’s home value index jumped 5.8% for the quarter. Sydney led the jump with a 6.7% lift. In March alone the index rose 2.8%, the biggest rise in 32 years. Most of the action was on the first home and owner-occupiers front, though investor purchases were also up.

The main fuel being added to the property price fire is ongoing low interest rates. With the RBA indicating rates will most likely remain low for years, that could continue to inflate property values and see more people priced out of the market.

Helping to fuel the market was good employment numbers. Seasonally adjusted, the ABS reported an unemployment rate of 5.8% in February, down from 6.3% in January. However, this counts people on JobKeeper as employed. Taking this into account, Roy Morgan put unemployment at 13.2% in February, with 21% of the workforce either unemployed or under-employed.

Blocked artery

In late March the container ship Ever Given provided a graphic example of how small things can have a huge impact. Strong wind gusts saw the giant ship wedge itself bank to bank across the Suez Canal, one of the world’s main shipping arteries. Suddenly 30% of world container shipping ground to a halt. Fortunately, the ship was freed after a few days, and the backlog of ships was cleared a few days after that, but it was a stark reminder of how vulnerable large parts of the economy are.

Key numbers

The pace of recovery in the local and international share markets slowed during the quarter as prices crept close to or exceeded their pre-pandemic levels. The S&P/ASX200 rose 3.1%, trailing the MSCI All-Country World Equity Index, which was up 4.2%. Tech shares ran out of puff with the NASDAQ only gaining 1.4%, while the S&P500 surged late in the quarter to gain 6.1%.

The outlook

Many countries are experiencing third and fourth waves of COVID-19, and it’s a fair bet that the virus will continue to dictate the way we live for some time to come.

But it’s not the only game in town. US President Joe Biden has taken climate change off the back burner and moved it front and centre. That means our government and businesses will need to pay it a lot more attention too. Expect carbon tariffs to become a hot topic.

On the local front, with interest rates all but ruled out as a tool for managing the residential property boom, talk is turning to the use of regulatory methods to dampen demand. These could involve requiring bigger deposits or limiting the rate of credit growth.

And with JobKeeper now wound up employment figures will come under close scrutiny. Expect to see a jump in unemployment this current quarter.

The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Quarterly Economic Update: July – September 2020

21 October, 202017 September, 2021 Updated on17 September, 2021 Finance, Investing

COVID-19 remained the big story of the last quarter. Tragically, by the end of September the pandemic had caused over one million deaths. That was up by 500,000 since the end of the previous quarter, and many countries were experiencing devastating ‘second waves’. While most of Australia managed to keep case numbers of coronavirus at very low levels, Victoria provided a case study in the severe human and economic impacts of having the virus escape control. Now it is epidemiologists, rather than economists, that we look to for advice on how to transition to a post-pandemic world. Unemployment ups and downs The official unemployment rate from the Australian Bureau of Statistics was 7.5% in July, but showed a welcome drop to 6.8% in August. Meanwhile, NSW claimed that 70% of jobs initially lost in the pandemic had been restored. However, when JobKeeper, people working zero hours but classified as employed, and a big jump in gig workers are taken into account, the real unemployment rate is much higher. Roy Morgan estimated that the actual unemployment rate is closer to 13.8% and the combined unemployment and under-employment rate is 22.8%. Still, both these figures were down from their peak in late March. Property problems The major property markets of Sydney and Melbourne declined for the fourth month in a row, with the ABS reporting that in the June quarter these major city housing markets dropped by 2.6 and 2.8% respectively. And the outlook for housing construction is none too rosy. Australia relies on immigration to generate the population growth that stimulates construction and supports the prices of existing dwellings. With our borders effectively closed that population growth will either be delayed or will fail to materialise. Rental income is also expected to decline, particularly in markets with a high proportion of overseas students who are unable to return to Australia. The markets After a bit of a rally through July and August the local share market ran out of steam, with the S&P 500 index finishing the quarter down by 1.4%. International markets continued to produce some excitement. Despite weakening a little towards the end of the quarter the MSCI All-Country World Equity Index rose 7.2%. Much of this was attributable to the US market with the S&P500 up 7.6% and the NASDAQ up 10.2%. The Aussie dollar also weakened slightly towards the end of the quarter, finishing flat against the Euro and British Pound, up 2% against the Yen, and up 3.8% (from the high 60s to low 70s) against the US Dollar. The outlook If you thought that interest rates couldn’t go any lower, think again. The RBA has flagged the possibility of a further cut in the cash rate with commentators predicting a cut of 15 basis points to take the rate to just 0.1%. Internationally, the US presidential election could see an increase in market volatility with the final outcome anything but certain. For further information on current market conditions, contact us. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Quarterly Economic Update: April – June 2024

1 July, 202427 June, 2024 Updated on27 June, 2024 Economy, Finance, Investing

The economy continues to slow, with inflation remaining sticky, the new federal budget making waves, and global events that may have a significant impact. Uncertainty at home and abroad The current outlook indicates uncertainty both domestically and internationally, making it unlikely that inflation will reach the target range of 2-3 per cent in the near future. May forecasts suggested that inflation would return to the target range by the second half of 2025 and reach the midpoint by 2026. However, recent indicators point to weak economic activity, such as slow GDP growth, an increase in the unemployment rate, sluggish wage growth, and uncertain consumption growth. Advanced economies are experiencing a slowdown in growth, although there are signs of improvement in the Chinese and US economies, along with increased commodity prices. Nevertheless, geopolitical uncertainties remain high, which could potentially disrupt supply chains. The Federal Budget focuses on social matters Treasurer Jim Chalmers presented the 2024-2025 Federal Budget on May 14, 2024. The government aimed to alleviate the cost of living without worsening inflation. Key announcements included: Interest rates remain steady, but the pain may not be over The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept interest rates on hold and the cash rate steady at 4.35 per cent throughout the quarter. At the June RBA board meeting, Governor Michele Bullock stated that the board has not dismissed the possibility of further rate hikes. Interest rates will stay at this level until the RBA’s next board meeting in early August. Inflation persists, despite slowing Inflation remains persistent, with the RBA predicting that it will take some time to consistently stay within the target range of 2-3 per cent. Although inflation has decreased significantly since its peak in 2022, the rate of decline has slowed. At the same time, economic growth has been limited as households cut back on non-essential spending due to income constraints. What are we spending on? Households are continuing to limit their spending on non-essential items. Spending on discretionary goods has shown a slow increase, rising by only 0.6 per cent over the year. On the other hand, spending on non-discretionary goods and services has risen by 5.8 per cent, mainly due to higher fuel and food costs. Household spending on health has significantly increased, showing a 15.7 per cent rise compared to this time last year. Health spending made the largest contribution to the overall 3.4 per cent rise in household spending in April. China lifts Aussie beef bans China has lifted bans on most beef and other exporters. The bans began in 2020 when China suspended beef exports from eight processors and imposed official and unofficial trade barriers on barley, coal, lobster, wood, and wine, costing exporters $20 billion Australian dollars ($13 billion) a year. These measures were viewed as politically motivated actions to penalise Australia, although China claimed they were related to trade issues. With the lifting of these bans, less than $1 billion worth of Australian exports are still being impeded. This marks a significant reduction from the previous $13 billion impact on Australian exporters. Trump down but not out Donald Trump’s conviction on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records has not stopped his campaign for President. As the November election looms closer, economists have expressed concerns about Trump’s campaign promise to impose a 10 per cent tariff on all US imports. If implemented, this and other trade policies could trigger another round of trade wars, disrupt international trade, and impact global growth. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

4 simple techniques to reduce your tax

22 June, 202216 June, 2022 Updated on16 June, 2022 Tax

Here is a list of tips to help you minimise the amount of tax you pay this end of financial year: 1. Keep records Even if you use an accountant to prepare your tax return, you are responsible for the information you provide and for keeping your tax records for a minimum of five years. So, to ensure that you don’t have to pay any more tax than you are obliged to: Keep receipts of all your tax-deductible expenditure. If you are audited by the tax office, you will need to be able to prove the expenses were incurred. Keep track of all your medical expenses. If net medical expenses relating to disability aids, attendant care or aged care exceed the threshold for the year, you may be eligible for a tax offset that takes the form of a credit against tax payable. Keep detailed records of income and capital gains. Required details include date the investment was purchased, how much was paid, when it was sold and how much was received. 2. Claim all available tax deductions You may be able to claim a tax deduction for many of your expenses. These include: donations to registered charities or non-profit organisations; self-education expenses; premiums on income protection insurance; work-related expenses. You should bear in mind that the range of permissible work-related expenses varies widely from occupation to occupation. Refer to the Australian Tax Office (ATO) website www.ato.gov.au for full details. 3. Contribute to superannuation Contributions to superannuation can reduce the level of tax you would otherwise have to pay on your investments because super is taxed at a maximum of 15%. In addition, some people are eligible to claim a tax deduction for contributions made to super. The rules surrounding superannuation tax deductibility provisions and contribution limits are complex, so it pays to seek advice from your financial planner. 4. Manage capital gains When you sell an investment for a profit, you are considered to have made a capital gain. For non-professional investors, capital gains will be included on your annual income tax return. Assets acquired before 20 September 1985 are exempt from Capital Gains Tax (CGT) considerations. When you sell an asset for less than you initially paid for it, you make a capital loss. When your total capital losses for the year outweigh your total capital gains, you will finish up with a net capital loss for the year. If you have a potential CGT liability, there are some strategies that you could consider to reduce the amount you need to pay: a. Keep an investment for at least 12 months Investors are entitled to claim a 50% discount on capital gains made on assets held for longer than a year. So, by holding on to the investment for more than 12 months you will halve the CGT payable. b. Use carry-forward tax losses to reduce CGT Capital losses incurred in previous tax years that have not already been offset against capital gains may be carried forward in future tax years and can mitigate the effect of any CGT liability. Check your past income tax returns or ask your accountant to determine whether this is an option for you. Remember that this information is not personal tax advice. Always consult a professional adviser to help you determine the best strategies for your personal circumstances. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Quarterly Economic Update: January-March 2024

9 April, 20244 April, 2024 Updated on4 April, 2024 Economy, Finance, Investing

The first quarter of 2024 saw the Government roll out considerable changes to the Stage 3 Tax Cuts, inflation continuing to slow but remaining stubbornly high across some areas, surging stock market highs and continuing pressures in the property sector. Government Overhauls Stage 3 Tax Cuts In January, the Labor government unveiled changes to the proposed stage 3 tax cuts, aimed at providing bigger tax cuts to middle Australia. The new changes, which passed the Senate to become law in February, retain the tax bracket that would have been scrapped under the original proposal, and adjust tax rates to benefit both lower and higher-income earners. The changes will take effect from July 1 and are summarised as follows: Taxable Income Bracket Tax rate New Tax Plan from July 1, 2024 Below $18,200 0% $18,200 to $45,000 16% $45,000 to $135,000 30% $135,000 to $190,000 37% Above $190,000 45% Original Stage 3 tax cuts Below $18,200 0% $18,200 to $45,000 19% $45,000 to $200,000 30% Above $200,000 45% Inflation continues to ease Inflation continues on a downward trend, with the RBA expecting it to return to the target range of 2-3 percent in 2025, and reach the midpoint in 2026. Service price inflation remains high despite goods price inflation decreasing, supported by continued excess demand and strong domestic cost pressures. The RBA expects the consumer price index (CPI) to come in at 3.3% by June, compared with 3.9% forecast three months ago. As a result, the board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.35 per cent at the first official meeting for the year.  Share Market Highs Global share markets have been breaking records this quarter, with the ASX200, S&P500, Eurozone and Japanese markets reaching record highs, helped by US inflation data coming in as expected, leaving the Fed on track to cut rates from mid-year. Whilst economic growth both locally and globally is forecast to slow, there is optimism in the market as inflation has started easing and is likely to continue falling, and central banks across the US, Canada and Europe are expected to start cutting rates in the coming months. Recession still looms as a risk, but it appears the economy may be moving toward a soft landing. Housing market continues to tighten The national vacancy rate fell to a new low of 0.7 per cent in February, highlighting the ongoing supply and demands challenges in rental properties across Australia, as a result of a construction sector under strain, rapid population growth from migration, and rising property prices. Whilst the government has put stricter measures on international students to try to ease demand pressures, supply continues to be an issue, with building approvals falling by 1 per cent in January, though multi-unit dwelling approvals increased by 19.5 per cent in the same period. Property prices continued to rise despite higher interest rates, inflation and cost of living concerns. The Home Value Index was up 0.6 per cent nationally in February, and showed an increase in all capital cities except Hobart. Labour market cooling Labour market conditions cooled over the December quarter 2023, with an ongoing shift away from full-time employment and growth in part-time jobs, and a decrease in recruitment activity. These trends are consistent with Treasury forecasts that growth will continue to ease and the unemployment rate will increase from 3.9 per cent in January to 4.2 per cent by June, and 4.3 per cent by the end of the year. Despite clear softening, labour market conditions remain tight, and many employers are experiencing challenges finding suitable workers to fill positions, while some shortage pressures remain evident. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice. 

Making the most of low interest rates

23 October, 20198 September, 2022 Updated on8 September, 2022 Finance

Banks have not been passing on the full reduction in the Reserve Bank’s official cash rate, but no one knows with any certainty, what the future holds for rates and to what extent. Most predictions are that they will remain at the low end for some time to come, so while borrowers love low rates and savers curse them, what can be done to make the most of the situation? Yay! Major winners of low interest rates are households with mortgages that were taken out at a higher rate. Keeping up repayments at the original level will see the mortgage paid ahead of schedule, delivering a big reduction in the total interest bill. Property investors can also be winners, particularly when buying property away from the high prices and low rental yields of inner capital city areas. However, care still needs to be taken to avoid excessive debt that could have a disastrous effect when rates rise. Businesses benefit from a low and stable interest rate environment. It’s cheaper to borrow to grow the business; and a major reason why the Reserve Bank lowered interest rates to stimulate business investment. Boo! For everyone cheering on low rates there will be someone booing them. People who depend on term deposits, high-interest savings accounts and bonds have seen their interest income fall by more than half! Self-funded retirees are particularly affected, especially where interest payments make up most of their income. Low rates aren’t always the friend of new entrants into the housing market as commonly touted. Low interest has been a major contributor to the rise in house prices, saddling new borrowers with higher levels of debt. With higher debt, any future rate rises will bite harder, so new borrowers need to carefully assess their ability to meet loan repayments when interest rates do rise. It’s also a good idea to reduce debt whenever possible. Life is also difficult for investors, including everyone contributing to superannuation. The low yield from conservative investments (cash and fixed interest) means there is a greater ‘cost’ in minimising portfolio risk than has previously been the case. One consequence of this is to drive many investors to search for other investments that offer higher cash returns at a potentially higher risk. Looking for yield While a bank share paying an annualised 5.83% dividend (including franking credit) looks very attractive beside a term deposit offering 1.70% interest, it needs to be remembered that, in the current climate, any effort to increase yield comes with an increase in risk. Even so, high yield shares can be a viable option for some investors who need a regular income. What to do? The best way to navigate the world of low interest rates depends very much on your personal circumstances. Good advice is critical, so talk to us about your situation. This is general information only

Inflation vs. Your Savings

5 November, 202424 October, 2024 Updated on24 October, 2024 Economy, Finance, Investing

Inflation is a slow force working against your financial goals. It can quietly erode the purchasing power of your money over time. While it’s tempting to see cash as a safe haven, failing to factor in inflation could mean your savings are worth less when you need them most. So, let’s dive into the showdown between inflation and your savings, and explore strategies to fight back! Inflation’s Erosion of Cash Returns The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) defines inflation as “an increase in the level of prices of the goods and services that households typically buy”. When inflation goes up, the value of each dollar you own decreases, meaning you can buy less with the same amount of money. This becomes a real concern for investors who rely on cash or low-risk investments like term deposits, where returns may not keep up with inflation. For instance, if you’ve placed your money in a term deposit earning 5% interest, but inflation is running at 6%, you’re effectively losing 1% of purchasing power. This is what’s known as the real return – the return on your investment after adjusting for inflation. A return of 5% may look good on paper, but in real terms it means you’re going backwards. Long-Term Investment Strategies So, how can you prevent inflation from chipping away at your savings? One effective approach is to adopt a diversified investment strategy. Diversification involves spreading your investments across various asset classes such as shares, property, bonds, and international assets, rather than keeping all your money in cash or low-risk products. Equities, for example, have historically outpaced inflation over the long term. While shares can be volatile in the short run, their potential for higher returns helps them beat inflation over time. Property investments also have a history of delivering inflation-beating returns, as the value of real estate typically rises along with inflation. Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) may be a useful way to diversify your investments that are both simple and low-cost. A well-diversified portfolio ensures that you’re not overexposed to any one asset class. Instead, you benefit from the potential growth of various sectors, reducing your overall risk and improving your chances of keeping pace with or even outpacing inflation. Practical Advice for Investors Investing during inflationary times can feel overwhelming, but there are several steps you can take to safeguard your wealth: The Bottom Line Inflation can have a serious impact on the value of your savings, particularly if you rely on cash or low-risk investments. Over time, even a modest inflation rate can significantly reduce your purchasing power. By diversifying your investments, staying informed, and seeking professional advice, you can set yourself up to win in the showdown between inflation and your money. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice. 

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