Market crashes: The good, the bad and the ugly

13 January, 202117 September, 2021 Updated on17 September, 2021 Economy, Investing

Just as night follows day, it seems part of the regular cycle of the world’s share markets that market crashes and falling prices follow good times and rising prices.

The impact of the COVID-19 Global Pandemic has been typical of such downturns, prompting a 35 per cent sell off in world share markets and a dramatic fall in economic activity. For many, it has prompted memories of other equally, and sometimes more devastating, downturns in the world’s share markets.

The most famous was “Black Thursday” in 1929, which led to an 80 per cent collapse in share prices and sparked the Great Depression, lasting for more than 10 years.

What caused it? The wild excesses of the roaring twenties when consumer confidence was at a record high and the introduction of margin loans, where people could borrow up to 80 per cent of the value of shares. This created a classic investment bubble, where optimism overwhelmed caution, and people started buying shares with the mistaken belief they would always increase in value. A drop in agricultural production due to droughts and a fall in economic production caused a sudden reversal in sentiment.

A similar situation occurred 60 years later in 1987 where panic selling on Black Monday wiped approximately 30 per cent from the value of the key US market index, the Dow Jones – its biggest one-day fall. It put an end to the ‘Greed is Good’ mentality of the eighties and prompted a review of the relatively new, computerised share trading systems.

Yet it seems investor’s memories are short.

Not long after this, markets got caught up with a new investment bubble prompted by the development and growth of the Internet. Companies raced to find their place online, and suddenly, all Internet companies were considered a sure bet. This speculative buying ran out of steam when the Dot Com Bubble finally burst in 2000, wiping 45 per cent off the value of shares.

Whilst sharing commonalities with previous crashes, the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, was also in many ways unique. It was the direct result of dodgy lending practices in the US housing market, which created a toxic class of home loans, commonly referred to as sub-prime loans.

Typically, these lenders ignored the individual’s ability to repay the loans and instead focused on the belief property prices would continue to rise, and there would always be people prepared to rent these properties. It created a typical investment bubble in the US housing market. Eventually, people found they could not meet their repayments, nor could they sell the properties held as securities. Causing enormous problems within the US banking system and the collapse of several international banks.

The lesson to be learnt from all these devastating crashes is that while no two were the same, they were all similar in nature. All were created by exaggerated investor beliefs that prices would never fall. Therefore, it is essential to think carefully before investing, ensuring each investment is made with a long-term mindset, and that sudden market corrections do not lead to panic selling.

As history has shown, market downturns follow upturns, but as long as the investment is fundamentally sound, it will fully recover any lost value. Contact us today for sound investment and financial advice to withstand market volatility.

The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Economic Update: July-September 2021

7 October, 20217 October, 2021 COVID-19, Economy

COVID here to stay The third quarter of the calendar year brought with it the third and by far the biggest wave in COVID-19 infections. Largely restricted to NSW and Victoria the outbreak was driven by the highly infectious Delta variant. Such was its speed of spread it forced a change in strategy from one of elimination to learning to live with the virus, supported by a massive vaccination campaign. By quarter’s end vaccination rates were closing in on key targets that will allow a slow and selective lifting of the severe lockdown conditions that have prevailed for months. Time to chill You know Australia has a housing problem when the head of one of the big banks, in this case Matt Comyn at CBA, calls for action “sooner rather than later” to stop the property market overheating. This was on the back of CoreLogic data showing house prices in Melbourne and Sydney rose 15.6% and 26% respectively over the 12 months to August. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also called on Australian regulators to cool the market. Don’t expect this to happen through the usual instrument of increased interest rates. Rather, look for reduced lending in specific sectors, such as investors, higher deposit requirements, or testing loan serviceability at higher interest rates. Pop goes iron ore Iron ore’s price bubble eventually popped as China instructed its steelmakers to cut back on production. Over the quarter the ore price fell 45%, with major miners taking an equivalent hit. BHP, Rio and Fortescue saw their shares tumble 33%, 26% and 44% respectively. Hot topic In August the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its latest report. It warned that “unless there are immediate, rapid and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, limiting warming to 1.5°C or even 2°C will be beyond reach”. The report paints a grim picture of what that warmer world will look like and returned climate change to the front pages of the world’s newspapers. The numbers Equity markets experienced a bit of a rollercoaster ride over the quarter. All the major indices posted record highs, but most ended up within 1% of where they started. The Aussie dollar also had a volatile quarter, trading between 71 and 75.4 US cents and finishing at 72 cents. It was a similar story against the other major currencies. In both cases the late-quarter sell-offs were blamed on expectations of higher US interest rates. On the radar Many of the world’s leaders will come together in Glasgow at the end of October for the 26th UN Climate Change Conference (COP26). If they heed the warning from the IPCC, and if they agree to take the necessary steps to limit warming to 2°C (and preferably 1.5°C), it will set the scene for a dramatic economic transformation, with huge opportunities for those who can sort the winners from the losers. Of more immediate concern, Chinese property company China Evergrande appears to be on the brink of collapse. Heavily indebted to the tune of US$300 billion, if it is allowed to fail it is likely to have global ramifications, not the least for Australia. China’s construction boom has been a huge driver of demand for our iron ore. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Your wealth during the COVID-19 pandemic

6 May, 202021 December, 2020 Updated on21 December, 2020 COVID-19, Finance, Investing

There isn’t a single person in the world who hasn’t been impacted by COVID-19. As new case numbers start to slow in Australia, so too is our economy. This time presents new challenges as everyone gets used to a “new normal” and figures out the best way to weather the coming months. This article provides an overview of different measures the Federal Government has announced to support individuals and businesses, current market performance and what you should be thinking about when it comes to your finances and continuing to build long-term wealth. Government support for individuals and businessesThe Federal Government has announced two economic stimulus packages and the JobKeeper Payment to support individuals and businesses. An overview of the Federal Government’s measures announced to date is detailed below. Support for individualsThe Federal Government has announced a range of measures to help individuals. Eligibility to access these measures is determined on criteria such as your employment status or loss of income due to COVID-19. Some of the key measures include: two $750 payments to social security, veteran and other income support recipients (first payment from 31 March 2020 and the second payment from 13 July 2020); access to the JobKeeper Payment from your employer (if eligible) equal to $1,500 per fortnight; a time-limited supplementary payment for new and existing concession recipients of the JobSeeker Payment, Youth Allowance, Parenting Payment, and Farm Household Allowance equal to $550 per fortnight; early release of superannuation funds (see overview below); and temporarily reducing superannuation minimum drawdown rates (see overview below). Full details about the Federal Government’s measures to support individuals are available on the Treasury website. Early release of superannuationEligible people will be able to access up to $10,000 of their superannuation in the 2019-20 financial year and a further $10,000 in the 2020-21 financial year. To access your super early, you need to meet ONE of the following five criteria: You are unemployed You are eligible for the JobSeeker payment, Youth Allowance for jobseekers, Parenting Payment special benefit or the Farm Household Allowance You were made redundant on or after 1 January 2020 Your working hours have reduced by at least 20 per cent after 1 January 2020 You are a sole trader, and your business activity was suspended, or your turnover has reduced by at least 20 per cent after 1 January 2020 If you are considering early release of your superannuation, you need to consider what the potential long-term impacts may be to the growth of your super fund and retirement income. While $20,000 may not seem like a lot of money now, it could have significant compounding value if left in your fund. Understandably, people may not have any other choice to support themselves financially. Make sure you speak to a financial professional to understand your risks and if this is a suitable option for you. If you are eligible, you can apply for early release of your superannuation directly with the ATO through the myGov website. Temporarily reducing superannuation minimum drawdown ratesThe temporary reduction in the minimum drawdown requirements for account-based pensions has been designed to assist retirees who do not wish to sell their investment assets, while the value of those assets is reduced. The minimum drawdown rates have been temporarily halved. Support for businessesThe Federal Government has announced a range of measures to help businesses facing financial difficulty. Eligibility to access these measures depends on factors such as your turnover and how much your business’s revenue has decreased due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Some of these measures include: increasing the instant asset write-off threshold for depreciating assets from $30,000 to $150,000; allowing businesses with turnover below $500 million to deduct 50 per cent of eligible assets until 30 June 2021; PAYG withholding support, providing up to $100,000 in cash payments which allows businesses to receive payments equal to 100 per cent of salary and wages withheld from 1 January 2020 to 30 June 2020; and temporary measures to reduce the potential actions that could cause business insolvency. Full details about the Federal Government’s measures to support businesses and eligibility criteria are available on the Treasury website. How the banks are approaching home loansBanks have announced that homeowners experiencing financial difficulty can pause their mortgage repayments for between three and six months. It’s important to remember that, in most cases, interest will still be capitalised and added to your outstanding loan balance. When payments restart, your lender may require increased repayments, or the term of your loan may be increased. These are important factors you need to discuss with your lender. What should you focus on when it comes to personal finance?While it can be tempting to sell all your investments now as the market declines, this locks in your losses and puts your wealth in a weak position. If you haven’t already defensively positioned your investments, speak with a financial adviser about how to best adjust your investing over the coming months. You should also consider how to maximise your returns as the market recovers. Investing and building wealth is a long-term game. As such, you should be investing with a long-term time horizon in mind. What should I do next?During this time, you may face some challenges with your finances. Your ability, however, to understand the options available to you and what the current period means on a long-term basis is key to getting through this challenging time productively. Further, making well thought out decisions now will give you the strong foundations you need in your health and wealth as the world recovers and embarks on a new period of growth. Before you make any big changes to your financial situation, speak to us to obtain personalised advice for your unique situation. This is general information only

Why financial advice may be your best investment

30 March, 202223 March, 2022 Updated on23 March, 2022 Education, Investing

It is commonly assumed that seeking financial advice is for the wealthy, and it only helps the rich become richer, yet financial advice can prove useful to anyone who wishes to better their financial future. Financial advice is like getting a health check-up for your financial situation. Your financial adviser is like your personal trainer, assisting you in achieving your best possible financial health. Seeking professional financial advice provides you with a clear path to achieve your financial goals, and that is an investment worth making. Why invest in financial advice? Financial advice isn’t only about investing your money in the share market. Want to save to buy your first home? Want to protect your children in case of your death? Want to enjoy a comfortable retirement? Don’t understand what to do with your super or how to invest in the share market? Think of a financial adviser as a one-stop shop for the majority of your financial issues in life. Come to think of it, be it your parents telling you to save money from your first job or an Instagram ‘finfluencer’ explaining the benefits of compound interest while dancing to a trendy song, these are all informal pieces of financial advice you receive throughout your lifetime. However, a professional adviser can legally provide holistic advice by reviewing your entire financial situation and your risk-taking capacity to recommend an appropriate investment portfolio. Also, an adviser’s investment recommendations are based on research which can give you comfort over your decisions rather than constantly worrying about the investment you made based on your work colleague’s stock ‘tip’. Is financial advice cost effective? The financial advice industry has undergone a monumental transformation following the Financial Services Royal Commission of 2017-2019. As a result, new education and compliance requirements have been legislated to further protect the client’s best interests. This has led to a drop in the number of financial advisers Australia-wide – from approximately 28,000 in 2018 to just 19,000 in 2021. The silver lining here is that while there are fewer advisers to choose from, the quality of advice is deemed to improve exponentially. As per Russell Investments “Value of an Adviser” report, advisers added a value of approximately 5.2 per cent to their client’s portfolios in the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. Still, the true value of financial advice is much more than comparing the fees you pay against the performance of your investments, or the tax saved on your income. A financial adviser can be a sounding board for your financial ideas, a resource to answer the simplest or most complex of queries, provide research-backed recommendations, and guide you over the long term based on their experience. Ready to make the investment? Your day to day job may not allow you to focus on the financial aspect of your life. In contrast, your financial adviser’s primary daily responsibility is to help you handle your finances efficiently. So, are you ready for your financial check-up? Take the first step and book an appointment with us today. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Why the share market is not the same as the economy

26 October, 202219 October, 2022 Updated on19 October, 2022 Economy, Finance

At the beginning of 2022 the Australian economy appeared to be sliding into recession, dragged down by higher interest rates and even higher inflation levels. As a result, it was tempting to believe the share market was also set to tumble. And while that’s not impossible, the local market traded higher during each of Australia’s last nine recessions, with some of the strongest trading on the Australian share market occurring when the economy was contracting. For example, 1983 was the best year ever on the Australian share market, climbing 60 per cent higher, while the economy was stuck hard in the 1981-1983 recession. So, while it is tempting to think poor economic times mean a dismal outlook for the market, there are four key reasons why that is usually not the case. Firstly, the market is driven by expectations. There is an old saying; investors buy on the rumour and sell on the facts. Big share market falls occur suddenly, well before the economy officially moves into recession, as investors promptly react to bad news. Once the economy is in recession, investors look to the future and how companies can take advantage of emerging opportunities in an improving economy. Improvements that can take time to show up in economic data. Secondly, the share market reflects investor sentiment, while consumer concerns and beliefs dominate the economy. Consumers might cut back on buying clothes or going out in preference to boosting savings when they fear bad times. In contrast, professional investors are constantly looking for opportunities, and economic downturns where small businesses go bust and consumer sentiment changes, usually create them. Thirdly, the share market comprises large successful companies. In contrast, economic statistics are dominated by what is happening to individuals and small businesses. Two groups that can respond very differently to world events. For example, the war in Ukraine prompted a rise in energy prices, particularly for oil. Most individuals and small businesses responded by cutting back on their petrol consumption, while large oil companies are cranking up production to take advantage of these higher prices. Finally, the share market has a much smaller universe than the economy. The market is made up of large companies entirely focused on getting larger and more profitable and, in doing so, attracting more investors to support their efforts. The economy is made up of Governments, individuals, and small businesses, all making a wide range of decisions about how they will live and operate in an ever-changing world and are basing those decisions on a raft of factors. So, while the share market and economy are connected, they are influenced by widely different variants that often see them heading in different directions. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Are you investing or gambling?

26 August, 202017 September, 2021 Updated on17 September, 2021 Investing

The potential financial results of investing can feel limitless, and it can be tempting to think that just one stock pick could make you an overnight millionaire. Yes, stock-picking can have a place in your investment strategy, but if you’re using a “get rich quick” mentality, you may be gambling, not investing. What’s the difference? One of the key differences between investing and gambling is process and strategy. If you don’t have a process and strategy in place, it is a sign that you need to establish or refine your plan. Further, gambling focuses on emotions such as hope. Investing, on the other hand, is all about strategy. With a clear strategy, you know approximately how much your investments will grow and over what time horizons. How do you know if you’re investing effectively? If you’re unsure whether your current investment approach is working to realise your goals, think about your investment process and how many of the below five elements are included in your approach. Completing no research If you’re not completing any research and putting money into assets based on tips from friends or what you see on social media, you’re exposing yourself to increased risk and not doing enough due diligence. Investing in micro-cap stocks only Micro-cap stocks typically have a market capitalisation under $500 million and are ranked from 350 to 600 on the Australian Stock Exchange. With a relatively small market capitalisation, buying stocks in these companies can be cheap. The downside, however, is that these companies are usually in their infancy and experience volatile price fluctuations. There’s a place for micro-cap stocks in your investing. However, if you’re putting all of your money into these companies, you’re likely exposing yourself to unnecessary risk. Investing with short time horizons Putting all of your money into short-term investments or activities such as day trading is an indication that you’re too focused on short-term gains without a long-term strategy. There’s a place for short time horizons in your investing, but only once you’ve mastered the foundations such as establishing a long-term plan and ensuring you have adequate cash buffers. Lack of diversification If all of your money is invested in one asset class, you’ll be over-exposed to volatility in a single market. To ensure your money grows consistently over time, your money needs to be balanced across a range of asset classes and sectors. Having no investment strategy If you don’t have an investment strategy, your investing won’t be as effective as it could be. To start putting together an investment strategy, you need to think about things such as: building up adequate cash buffers; how much money you need invested to live comfortably off your returns; and when you anticipate you’ll start drawing an income from your investments. Moving forward with a long-term wealth strategy Investing in different asset classes such as equities, commodities, and fixed-income assets is a great way to build long-term wealth. To build this wealth, however, you need a strategy and process to follow. If you’re unsure how to develop an investment strategy, be sure to seek qualified financial advice. Investing in this advice now can reap great rewards in the years to come, ensuring your money is working to help you realise your financial and lifestyle goals sooner. Contact us to get started. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

The effect of rising inflation

3 August, 202227 July, 2022 Updated on27 July, 2022 Budgeting, Economy

The word ‘inflation’ doesn’t only dominate business news headlines but finds its way into general news reports too. So, what is inflation and how does it affect you? In simple terms, inflation signifies a rise in the price of goods and services, meaning you pay more for every purchase you make. Does the US influence Australia’s inflation rate? It is not a surprise that countries in today’s world are more connected than ever before. Therefore, a rise in US inflation rates will impact the Australian economy too. However, the degree and timing of its impact will vary. For example, a rise in labour costs in the US may have a limited impact on Australians; however, an increase in the price of iPhones or Nike shoes in the US will reflect in their price in Australia too. What will be the impact of rising US inflation on Australia’s economy? Interest rate movements made by the US Federal Reserve Bank (the Fed) are closely monitored by central banks worldwide, including the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Over the past decade, many developed economies, including the US and Australia, have reduced interest rates to boost their economies. With rates rebounding from all-time lows there is an expectation that rates will continue increasing due to the strong performance of those economies. Quite often when the Fed increases its interest rate, Australia is quick to follow suit. The cost of borrowing funds will increase, leading to a rise in the inflation rate, making goods and services more expensive. Rising inflation rates can also negatively impact the Australian dollar, where one AUD buys less USD than it may have done previously. What will be the effect on investors? A rise in inflation affects investment markets negatively due to higher interest rates, volatility in the economy and uncertain share prices. For some investors, rising interest rates mean paying more interest on their home loan, which reduces their disposal income and, in turn reduces their capacity to invest. For retirees, an increase in the price of goods and services at a time of share market volatility can lead to having to sell more of their investment assets (potentially at a loss or reduced profit). Also, there could be uncertainty in dividend income, which many retirees often rely upon. Retiree investors will have fewer years to recover from a drop in their portfolios compared to younger investors. How should you prepare for a rise in inflation? It is important to first analyse your personal cashflow situation to understand where your money goes. Consider fixing at least part your home loan to limit your exposure to rising interest rates. Reconsider new personal loans, such as car loans. Do you need to take on new debt when interest rates are likely to increase? For the risk-taking investor, it can be tempting to invest more money into shares when prices are falling, but always consider averaging your position to avoid market timing risk. For investment purposes, consider having exposure in well established companies “blue chip stocks” vs riskier stock. Investors often find comfort knowing their funds are exposed to good quality companies with strong balance sheets. If the thought of rising inflation leaves you feeling unsettled, be sure to talk to a professional adviser. Your adviser will review your financial position, your ability to meet your financial obligations, as well as identify strategies to outpace inflation. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

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