Federal Budget 2023-24 Summary

24 May, 202318 May, 2023 Updated on18 May, 2023 Centrelink, Economy, Superannuation, Tax

Lady Luck has once again looked down fondly upon Australia, creating the first Federal Budget surplus in 15 years, through a higher tax take on record export earnings and increasing income tax receipts from higher job numbers. But how long will the good times last?

Domestic economic growth is expected to buckle under the weight of higher interest rates. As a result, annual gross domestic product is expected to fall to just 1.5 per cent in 2023 -2024, recovering slightly to just 2.25 per cent the following year. This low growth forecast, down from 3.25 per cent currently, comes despite an expected surge in immigration numbers to 300,000, while inflation is forecast to stay stubbornly close to the 6 per cent mark for 2022-2023.

The Budget papers suggest inflation will eventually fall within the Reserve Bank‘s guidelines, but not for some time, raising the possibility of stagflation engulfing economic growth. At the same time, unemployment is expected to rise from its record low level of 3.5 per cent to 4.5 per cent the following year and remain at this level for the foreseeable future.

Nonetheless, this is a true Labor Budget. The Federal Government will boost Job Seeker payments by $40 a fortnight, provide greater rent assistance and energy subsidies to low-income households, as well as lower medicine costs and provide cheaper doctor visits for all Australians. Increased wage payments for those working in the aged care sector and increased childcare subsidies should also help to reduce the pressure on working families struggling to deal with the recent uptick in cost-of-living pressures. An estimated 60,000 single parents will also be able to claim the Single Parent welfare payment benefit from September 1, with the Government lifting the eligibility age for the youngest child in a family from 8 to 14 years.

The Government insists these measured spending increases are targeted and restrained and will work to reduce the rate of inflation. However, only time will tell if the Reserve Bank agrees that a lift in overall government spending via the Budget will work to bring down prices. The Government hopes to reduce housing pressures by encouraging investment in rental housing by lowering the annual profit on build-to-rent projects from 30 to 15 per cent. But beyond this, this Budget has very little to help struggling businesses. It does, though, include some $4 billion to encourage new green energy programs, including $2 billion to support large-scale hydrogen production and $1.3 billion to help households upgrade their existing homes through the Household Energy Upgrades Fund.

At the same time, big-ticket items within the Budget just get bigger. There is a brave estimate that spending within the NDIS will be restrained, yet there is no actual strategy for achieving this other than to reduce waste. The cost of providing health services has never been higher, while defence spending is expected to surge to $20 billion over the next four years, including some $9 billion to be spent on the new AUKUS nuclear-powered submarines. Little has been done to boost Government revenue beyond more fairly taxing windfall profits in the gas industry and increasing the tax bill for super accounts with more than $3 million in assets. Beyond this, nothing has been done to address the structural challenges within the Budget.

Meanwhile, there is already unrest that the Job Seeker allowance is not being increased sufficiently to pull recipients out of poverty, with cost of living pressures at record highs for Australia’s most vulnerable people. All at a time when the Budget is in surplus.

The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Who gets your super?

29 September, 20216 October, 2021 Updated on6 October, 2021 Superannuation

Who decides what happens to your superannuation savings when you die? You may think that you do, but that isn’t always the case. The ultimate decision may be made by someone you don’t even know – the trustee of your superannuation fund. Let’s look at how you can have greater control. Binding death benefit nominations The most certain way to direct payment of your superannuation death benefit is by making a binding death benefit nomination. The nominated beneficiaries must be ’dependants’ – a spouse, de facto spouse, child or financial dependant – or a legal personal representative (i.e. the executor or administrator of a deceased estate.) If the nomination has been properly signed and witnessed, and is still current at the date of death, then the trustees of the superannuation fund must pay the death benefit to the nominated beneficiaries. Unlike Wills, valid binding superannuation nominations are unlikely to be overturned by a court, so they provide great certainty. It is up to the trustees of each superannuation fund to decide whether or not to allow binding nominations, so they aren’t available to everyone. Although some funds offer non-lapsing binding death benefit nominations, most are only valid for three years, so it’s important to check yours and ensure it remains up-to-date. Trustee’s discretion The trustee is under a legal obligation to pay a death benefit to the member’s dependants, and in most cases, benefits will be paid in a way that is consistent with the wishes of the deceased member. However, it is possible the trustee may recognise a wider range of dependants than the member would have liked – including a separated spouse. In some cases, the member’s preferred beneficiary may not meet the legal definition of a dependant. This may apply to parents. In the absence of any dependants and a legal personal representative, the trustee may exercise their discretion, and pay the benefit to a non-dependant. While dependants receive lump-sum death benefits tax free, the rate of tax payable by non-dependants can vary from nil to 30% depending on the components of the superannuation payment. Superannuation pensions The situation is a little different if the member has already retired and is drawing a superannuation pension. With pensions, it is common to nominate a surviving spouse as a reversionary beneficiary. This means the pension payments will continue to be paid to the nominee, either until their death, or until the funds run out. If the reversionary beneficiary dies, any remaining balance is then paid out as a lump sum death benefit according to the type of nomination they have made. Good advice required Increasing levels of wealth being held via superannuation and the nomination of beneficiaries should be made in the context of a comprehensive estate plan. This includes taking into account the way superannuation death benefits are taxed when paid to different types of beneficiaries. We can help you make the right decision. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Federal Budget Highlights 2022-23

13 April, 20226 April, 2022 Updated on6 April, 2022 Economy

The Federal Government has delivered a big-spending 2022 budget, taking immediate steps to reduce cost of living pressures for working Australians while implementing a range of massive infrastructure and defence spending measures. The Government will slash the fuel excise by half, effective immediately, as well as provide a one-off cash hand out of $250 to a range of social security recipients, and a $450 additional tax offset for low- and middle-income earners. Productivity will be boosted across the nation by enhanced training incentives, dramatic tax measures to drive greater digital adoption and improve computer-based efficiencies as well as steps to boost the nation’s overall level of self-sufficiency. Concerns about the growing budget deficit, which has now reached $78 billion, have been largely put on the back burner with confidence placed in the fact that as the economy grows, this will naturally reduce. A bounding economy The Australian economy has posted astonishing growth. It has come roaring out of two years of pandemic induced lockdowns, to post strong growth across the nation, spurred on by higher prices for coal, iron ore and wheat. Gross domestic product is expected to expand by a massive 4.2% this year while wages are expected to grow by 2.75% and surge by 3.25 % in the following year. Unemployment is currently 4%, but this is expected to drop to 3.75 % over the next six months – its lowest level since 1974. An extra 100,000 Australians have found work compared to employment numbers recorded when the pandemic first hit in March 2020. This is expected to help slash welfare payments by $11 billion across the next four years. A focus on increased productivity Training and improved productivity remains a key focus, with the Government implementing a $365 million extension to the existing apprentice wage subsidy scheme, in an attempt to further boost apprenticeship training. The Federal Government is continuing its focus on boosting business productivity allowing a $120 tax deduction for every $100 spent on digital adoption technology, such as portable payment systems, cyber security measures and subscriptions to cloud based services. A similar tax measure will be introduced for businesses providing external training courses to staff whether online or in-person, to increase productivity throughout the economy. This will be supported by a raft of Government driven efficiencies such as digitalising trust income reporting, improved PAYG systems and automatic reporting of taxable payments. And a more efficient economy The 2022-23 budget also includes a raft of infrastructure projects that will drive greater efficiencies and economic growth across Australia in the decade ahead. In addition, the Government has announced steps to develop a circular waste economy, support low emission technologies including hydrogen, extended gas pipeline infrastructure and more efficient environment approval strategies. Source: budget.gov.au The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Economic Update: July-September 2021

7 October, 20217 October, 2021 COVID-19, Economy

COVID here to stay The third quarter of the calendar year brought with it the third and by far the biggest wave in COVID-19 infections. Largely restricted to NSW and Victoria the outbreak was driven by the highly infectious Delta variant. Such was its speed of spread it forced a change in strategy from one of elimination to learning to live with the virus, supported by a massive vaccination campaign. By quarter’s end vaccination rates were closing in on key targets that will allow a slow and selective lifting of the severe lockdown conditions that have prevailed for months. Time to chill You know Australia has a housing problem when the head of one of the big banks, in this case Matt Comyn at CBA, calls for action “sooner rather than later” to stop the property market overheating. This was on the back of CoreLogic data showing house prices in Melbourne and Sydney rose 15.6% and 26% respectively over the 12 months to August. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also called on Australian regulators to cool the market. Don’t expect this to happen through the usual instrument of increased interest rates. Rather, look for reduced lending in specific sectors, such as investors, higher deposit requirements, or testing loan serviceability at higher interest rates. Pop goes iron ore Iron ore’s price bubble eventually popped as China instructed its steelmakers to cut back on production. Over the quarter the ore price fell 45%, with major miners taking an equivalent hit. BHP, Rio and Fortescue saw their shares tumble 33%, 26% and 44% respectively. Hot topic In August the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its latest report. It warned that “unless there are immediate, rapid and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, limiting warming to 1.5°C or even 2°C will be beyond reach”. The report paints a grim picture of what that warmer world will look like and returned climate change to the front pages of the world’s newspapers. The numbers Equity markets experienced a bit of a rollercoaster ride over the quarter. All the major indices posted record highs, but most ended up within 1% of where they started. The Aussie dollar also had a volatile quarter, trading between 71 and 75.4 US cents and finishing at 72 cents. It was a similar story against the other major currencies. In both cases the late-quarter sell-offs were blamed on expectations of higher US interest rates. On the radar Many of the world’s leaders will come together in Glasgow at the end of October for the 26th UN Climate Change Conference (COP26). If they heed the warning from the IPCC, and if they agree to take the necessary steps to limit warming to 2°C (and preferably 1.5°C), it will set the scene for a dramatic economic transformation, with huge opportunities for those who can sort the winners from the losers. Of more immediate concern, Chinese property company China Evergrande appears to be on the brink of collapse. Heavily indebted to the tune of US$300 billion, if it is allowed to fail it is likely to have global ramifications, not the least for Australia. China’s construction boom has been a huge driver of demand for our iron ore. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

6 steps to a sustainable Christmas

21 December, 202221 December, 2022 Budgeting

Just as the Grinch stole Christmas, excess spending can rob us all of yuletide happiness. Seasonal credit card splurges can create ballooning long term debt, while unnecessary consumption inevitably leads to a blow-out in rubbish bin waste. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia estimates $11 billion is spent on presents each year, including some 20 million unwanted gifts. At the same time, seasonal celebrations boost landfill rubbish by a massive 30 per cent. So, if you want to max out the ho, ho, ho in Christmas this year, think of applying more whoa, whoa, whoa to your spending and consumption ideas. Here are six simple tips Ebenezer Scrooge would be proud of: Ninety per cent of Australians claim to recycle something, sometimes. What better way to do this than to shop for presents in one of Australia’s 2,500 opportunity shops? Forget the old days of chipped crockery and stained used clothing. Op shops are full of trendy, mint condition items and are the perfect place to find something slightly offbeat or unusual for your loved one. Save on postage and reduce needless paper usage by sending clever and original e-Christmas cards. Head online to create your seasonal messages to email to friends and family. Many websites provide free cards, while others offer designer animated versions. Instead of giving a physical gift, give an experience such as tickets to a concert or a voucher to use at a favourite restaurant. Better still, why not gift something special of yourself by offering to cook a meal or provide free babysitting for a family member. Giving an experience rather than a physical gift also means you don’t need to waste precious paper by wrapping the present or spend money on postage getting it to that special someone. If you do give a physical present, think of some clever ways to wrap it, so you’re not adding to the 150,000 km of wrapping paper Australians needlessly use each year – that’s enough paper to circle the equator 4 times. Wrap your gift in a re-usable patterned tea towel or scarf, or better still, invest in some brightly patterned boxes to hold your present that can be recycled from one Christmas to the next. Stop for a moment and look around your home to see what you can re-use and turn into a gift. A great place to start is the garden. Many plants can be easily divided and, in doing so, will create new plants you can pot up in a re-usable pot to give away. Take time to plan your meals this season and, wherever possible, cut down on buying heavily packaged or processed foods. Instead, buy fresh foods that can be eaten without much cooking, re-used as leftovers, or frozen for later consumption. It’s estimated that ninety per cent of Australians discard some 25 per cent of all the food they buy during December – that’s food that has been needlessly produced only to end up in Australia’s landfills. What really matters is remembering how blessed we are to be enjoying the festive season in whatever way we can and being with the people we care about most. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Quarterly Economic Update: April-June 2022

20 July, 202213 July, 2022 Updated on13 July, 2022 Economy

The price of a lowly head of lettuce has never been a recognised barometer of the strength of the Australian economy, that is until the media started reporting iceberg lettuces were selling for $10 a head. Suddenly, this has become a touchstone for everything that is wrong with the domestic economy. Prices are on the rise, spurred by higher transport costs and climate-based disruptions to the food chain, and the cost of living is surging. While some relief came with an unexpected 5.2 per cent increase in the basic wage, a move endorsed by the newly elected Federal Government, the prospect of similar inflation linked wage increases were dismissed as a ‘baby boomer fantasy’ by the trade union movement. Nonetheless, fears of further wage increases remain. So, all eyes are now focused on price rises with the most recent figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, pegging Australia’s rate of inflation at 5.1 per cent per annum. As bad as this might seem, it is still one of the lowest inflation rates among OECD nations, beaten only by Japan and Switzerland, at the bottom of the inflation table with 2.5 per cent, followed by Israel on 4.0 per cent, and Korea and France with 4.8 per cent. However, with inflation in the United States at 8.3 per cent and 7.8 per cent in the United Kingdom and both countries expecting this rate to go higher, the fear is Australia’s rate will start moving towards 7 per cent – a rate not seen in Australia for more than 20 years. Inflationary fears were made worse by the Governor of the Reserve Bank, Phil Lowe, calling for “front-loaded” interest rate hikes to avoid stagflation and warning against any super-sized wage claims. Just the mere mention of stagflation, something not seen since the seventies, has sent a shiver through the economy. This drove fears that home loan interest rates will also be pushed higher, causing more financial stress for those who have borrowed heavily and bought property at the recent record-high prices. While all four of the big banks are reporting current home loan arrears at record low levels and the majority of customers are tracking well ahead on their home loan repayments, fears still remain about the impact of higher interest rates. Property prices have already started to slide with industry analysts expecting the average prices in Melbourne and Sydney to fall by 10 per cent this calendar year and by potentially as much again next financial year. Meanwhile, the value of cryptocurrencies, which seems to magnify prevailing market sentiments, has collapsed across the board with values falling by as much as 70 per cent. The largest single cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, which was trading at just $US67.81 in July 06, 2013, soared as high as $US68,000 last November, is currently trading at $US20,200, with little market enthusiasm. While cryptocurrency was once touted as being something of a safe haven and a means of diversifying investment portfolios, it is fast becoming a magnifier of market excess and pessimistic economic sentiment. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Quarterly Economic Update: Oct – Dec 2023

10 January, 202410 January, 2024 Economy, Finance, Investing

Global growth is forecast to slow and remain below its historical average in 2024, reflective of tighter monetary policy in advanced economies, as well as a soft outlook for China. Australians can expect higher prices, higher interest rates and higher population growth, with economic growth and unemployment decreasing. Inflation continues to bite With a new Governor at the helm of the RBA, and inflation tracking down since its peak in the December quarter 2022, public sentiment hoped that rate rises would be paused. However, the RBA delivered another rate hike at the November 2023 meeting, bringing the official interest rate to 4.35% – the highest level since 2011. It is likely that an increase in the monthly CPI indicator was a key trigger for the RBA to raise rates, as the monthly indicator rose to 5.2 per cent in August, and then rose again to 5.6 per cent in the September data. However, the next monthly data point, for October (which came out after the November rate rise) had inflation decreasing to 4.9 per cent. Services inflation remains high and was the primary driver of stronger-than-expected underlying inflation in the September quarter. Interest rates – will they or won’t they? The RBA continues to be cautious about the inflation outlook for Australia for several reasons: high and sticky inflation in the services market, house prices recovering sooner than anticipated, a tight labour market and increasing population growth due to migration. A survey of 40 economists by the Australian Financial Review shows that the median forecast is that the RBA will start cutting rates in September 2024, whilst the bond market is projecting an easing of rates by mid-2024. The RBA will meet only eight times in 2024, reduced from 11, beginning in February – following an independent review ordered by the Treasury. Coupled with the RBA governor’s commitment to return inflation to the target range of 2-3%, more rate hikes may be on the cards. Holiday spending to remain flat A survey by Roy Morgan forecast shoppers to spend $66.8 billion during the pre-Christmas sales period, only up 0.1% from the same period in 2022, likely as a result of cost of living impacts. Sales spending for the Boxing Day period to December 31 was expected to be about $9 billion, including $3 billion on Boxing Day itself, as retailers prepared larger discounts than usual after a slow year. Hot Property House and unit prices grew steadily in 2023, with a national annual growth rate of 5.42% (6.54% in capital cities). The main drivers include the highest net overseas migration levels ever recorded, few vacant properties and stronger demand for established homes due to the construction industry facing capacity and cost issues. This growth forecast is expected to continue as most experts believe demand for housing will continue to outstrip supply. However, Australia’s cost of living increases and interest rate uncertainty will keep biting—leading to weaker price growth than previous years. The rental market remains in a critical shortage of available dwellings according to SQM Research. Due to the ongoing supply and demand imbalance, the market is expecting capital city rental increases of 7-10% for 2024, on top of an average 10% market increase in 2023. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice. 

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