Federal Budget Summary 2023-24
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Federal Budget 2023-24 Summary

Updated on Centrelink, Economy, Superannuation, Tax

Lady Luck has once again looked down fondly upon Australia, creating the first Federal Budget surplus in 15 years, through a higher tax take on record export earnings and increasing income tax receipts from higher job numbers. But how long will the good times last?

Domestic economic growth is expected to buckle under the weight of higher interest rates. As a result, annual gross domestic product is expected to fall to just 1.5 per cent in 2023 -2024, recovering slightly to just 2.25 per cent the following year. This low growth forecast, down from 3.25 per cent currently, comes despite an expected surge in immigration numbers to 300,000, while inflation is forecast to stay stubbornly close to the 6 per cent mark for 2022-2023.

The Budget papers suggest inflation will eventually fall within the Reserve Bank‘s guidelines, but not for some time, raising the possibility of stagflation engulfing economic growth. At the same time, unemployment is expected to rise from its record low level of 3.5 per cent to 4.5 per cent the following year and remain at this level for the foreseeable future.

Nonetheless, this is a true Labor Budget. The Federal Government will boost Job Seeker payments by $40 a fortnight, provide greater rent assistance and energy subsidies to low-income households, as well as lower medicine costs and provide cheaper doctor visits for all Australians. Increased wage payments for those working in the aged care sector and increased childcare subsidies should also help to reduce the pressure on working families struggling to deal with the recent uptick in cost-of-living pressures. An estimated 60,000 single parents will also be able to claim the Single Parent welfare payment benefit from September 1, with the Government lifting the eligibility age for the youngest child in a family from 8 to 14 years.

The Government insists these measured spending increases are targeted and restrained and will work to reduce the rate of inflation. However, only time will tell if the Reserve Bank agrees that a lift in overall government spending via the Budget will work to bring down prices. The Government hopes to reduce housing pressures by encouraging investment in rental housing by lowering the annual profit on build-to-rent projects from 30 to 15 per cent. But beyond this, this Budget has very little to help struggling businesses. It does, though, include some $4 billion to encourage new green energy programs, including $2 billion to support large-scale hydrogen production and $1.3 billion to help households upgrade their existing homes through the Household Energy Upgrades Fund.

At the same time, big-ticket items within the Budget just get bigger. There is a brave estimate that spending within the NDIS will be restrained, yet there is no actual strategy for achieving this other than to reduce waste. The cost of providing health services has never been higher, while defence spending is expected to surge to $20 billion over the next four years, including some $9 billion to be spent on the new AUKUS nuclear-powered submarines. Little has been done to boost Government revenue beyond more fairly taxing windfall profits in the gas industry and increasing the tax bill for super accounts with more than $3 million in assets. Beyond this, nothing has been done to address the structural challenges within the Budget.

Meanwhile, there is already unrest that the Job Seeker allowance is not being increased sufficiently to pull recipients out of poverty, with cost of living pressures at record highs for Australia’s most vulnerable people. All at a time when the Budget is in surplus.

 

The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

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Building a Strong Foundation: Avoiding Mortgage Default

Building a Strong Foundation: Avoiding Mortgage Default

Updated on Budgeting, Economy, Finance

When building a home, it’s often said that the foundations are the most important part. Their primary purpose is to hold your house up – supporting the structure and preventing it from being affected by uneven ground. Similarly, when purchasing a home and financing it with a mortgage, your financial foundation is just as crucial. A solid financial foundation can help you avoid mortgage stress, loan default, or even eviction. Unfortunately, economic factors such as higher living expenses, interest rate hikes, or job loss can jeopardise your financial foundation. What is mortgage stress? Mortgage stress occurs when homeowners face difficulty meeting their mortgage repayments and their living expenses. The Australian Bureau of Statistics has developed a “Mortgage Affordability Indicator”, which applies a 30% mortgage repayment threshold based on a household’s income. Mortgage stress can cause immense strain on individuals and families and increase the risk of mortgage default. Defaulting on a home loan happens when borrowers cannot make repayments as per the agreed terms and conditions of the loan agreement. This situation may result in serious consequences, including eviction and mortgagee possession of the property by the lender. How to avoid mortgage stress and loan default 1. Know Your Financial Situation One of the most crucial steps to avoid mortgage default is having a clear understanding of your financial situation. By evaluating your income, expenses, and overall financial position, you can identify potential risks and understand what options are available to you. Tracking your income and expenses will help you to analyse your spending habits and identify areas where you can cut back or make adjustments to free up cash flow. This is also a great time to review your expenses and renegotiate with service providers. Reviewing your financial position may help you identify available options to assist in financial hardship. 2. Seek Professional Guidance A mortgage broker can help you assess your current loan terms and explore options for refinancing or loan modifications that better align with your financial circumstances. They can provide valuable advice and assist in negotiating more favourable terms with your lender. 3. Communicate with Your Lender If you anticipate difficulties in making your mortgage repayments, it is best to communicate proactively with your lender in advance. Most lenders have teams dedicated to supporting customers experiencing financial hardship. They may be able to offer temporary payment arrangements or alternative solutions to help you through a difficult period. Case Study: Consider the case of John and Sarah, a couple facing the risk of defaulting on their mortgage due to a sudden but temporary loss of income. To avoid this outcome, they took several steps: Reviewed their financial situation – John and Sarah underwent a complete review of their financial situation. They reviewed their expenses, paused or cut back on discretionary spending, and renegotiated with all of their utility and service providers. This freed up cash flow to allocate towards their home loan. They also identified that they were slightly ahead with their home loan repayments. Communicated with their lender – John and Sarah reached out to their lender to explore their loan repayment choices. Since they had made some progress in their payments, they were eligible for a repayment holiday. This option would allow them to pay less towards their home loan for the next six months. They had examined their financial situation and were confident that they could manage these reduced repayments, and this would give them six months to replace the lost income and get back on their feet. To prevent mortgage stress and default, it’s important to actively manage your finances and have a clear understanding of your financial situation. Though it can be tough, taking early action and being transparent with your lender can help you work together to overcome financial challenges and ensure the safety of your home. If you are facing any difficulties in making your mortgage payments, you can find helpful resources on the MoneySmart website: https://moneysmart.gov.au/. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Quarterly Economic Update: July-September 2022

Quarterly Economic Update: July-September 2022

Economy, Finance

As geo-political tensions tighten in Ukraine, economies around the world are reeling from mounting energy prices, soaring costs of living and in a desperate attempt to bring down inflation, higher interest rates.  The US economy appears certain to fall into recession. Markets have suddenly become volatile as shares are sold in preference to holding funds in defensive assets such as cash. This in turn is reaping havoc on world currency markets. Funds are flooding into US dollar denominated investments and in doing so, are sending the value of the greenback sky high against other currencies.  Speculation is mounting that the British pound may fall to historic lows in coming months and may even reach parity with the US dollar, driven by the newly elected Prime Minister Liz Truss, implementing a big borrowing, low taxing budget. This controversial attempt to boost the British economy comes at a time when central banks around the world, including the Bank of England, are lifting interest rates in order to reduce economic activity and so, dramatically slow the rate of inflation.  The Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development is now forecasting economic growth will slow from 2.8 to 2.2 per cent during the next twelve months as the United States, China and Europe all cut back on economic activity.  While Australia is not spared from this global slowdown, with the OECD forecasting domestic growth will tumble from 2.5 to 2 per cent during the coming year, it should survive this turbulent period better than most. Much will depend on this month’s Federal Budget. The first by the newly elected Albanese Government, it will tread a line between its reform agenda including much talk about tax cuts and trying to slow the economy and so reduce inflation.  Although the employment rate across the nation remains high, spiralling prices for basic foodstuffs and other essentials is putting enormous pressure on the Government to provide relief to those struggling to get by. In the meantime, petrol prices are set to bounce higher as the Federal Government restores the fuel excise tax, adding 23 cents a litre to both petrol and diesel sold in Australia.  In addition, the Reserve Bank has made it clear it will continue to lift the domestic cash rate and with it most other local interest rates, until it has clawed back the rate of inflation from an expected high of 7 per cent, to less than 3 per cent.  Higher interest rates are already impacting homebuyers. Five rate rises since May, mean a couple earning $92,000 each, can now borrow $264,000 less than they could in April according to analysis by the research house, Canstar. So even with a 20 per cent deposit, a couple’s maximum budget has dropped from more than $1.63 million to $1.37 million and this in turn is being reflected by prices in the property market. As buyer’s budgets have fallen, so too have property prices. CoreLogic Home Value Index shows house prices in Sydney have dropped by 7.6 per cent this year while Melbourne prices have fallen by 4.6 per cent.  With the Reserve Bank determined to force even higher interest rates on the economy in order to defeat inflation, there is no end in sight to higher interest rates and further property price falls.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice. 

Thriving in the ‘Gig Economy’

Thriving in the ‘Gig Economy’

Updated on Budgeting, Education, Tax

If you’re a freelancer or contractor or maybe even a consultant then you’re part of the “gig economy”. Gone is the job for life, or even a job in the normal, employed meaning of the word. For you, work consists of short-term contracts or a series of one-off jobs. “Gigs” as the band down at the pub might put it. For some, gig work is a liberating choice that allows them to work their own hours, holiday when they like and work wherever they wish. For others it’s a necessity in a weak job market where under-employment and age discrimination is rife, and more companies choose to outsource specific tasks. Key to the gig economy is technology, be it an Uber app, Skype, crowdsourcing sites or just email and the Web. A study found that 4.1 million Australians had freelanced in 2014/15, and it’s a trend more likely to grow than diminish. So if you’re a “gig worker” what can you do to make the most of your situation? It’s business If you’re happy picking up the odd jobs that fall into your lap for a little extra money, that’s fine. But if you are looking to earn a full-time income then you’re in business and need to operate accordingly. To begin with, you need to know: Who your potential clients are; How to reach out to them; How to gain referrals; The processes you have to put into place to track your work, issue invoices, and make sure you get paid on time; How to meet your tax obligations. Protect yourself Depending on the work you do and the requirements of your clients you may need a range of insurances: Professional indemnity insurance – if there’s any chance a client could sue you in relation to the work you are engaged to complete. Public liability insurance – in case your work activities cause injury to a member of the public. Income protection insurance – you may be eligible for workers’ compensation insurance, but the rules vary from state to state, depend on your business structure, and only cover work-related injuries. Income protection insurance will also cover you against illness and non-work-related injuries. Life insurance – if you have dependents but little in the way of net assets. Think long term Can you build your business into something you can sell? If not, how will you fund your retirement? As a gig worker you’re unlikely to receive compulsory superannuation contributions, but you can (and should) make your own contributions. Personal contributions are tax deductible up to the annual concessional cap of $27,500. Get advice All state and territory governments have departments of business that offer a wealth of information and support for small businesses. Check out the help available in your state. And talk to your financial adviser. Aside from being able to look at your insurance, savings and super needs, your adviser may be an experienced small business operator, a potential mentor, and a valuable member of your network. Contact us today!   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Quarterly Economic Update: January-March 2022

Quarterly Economic Update: January-March 2022

Updated on COVID-19, Economy, Investing

Robust domestic economic growth Australia is rebounding from the pandemic, with domestic economic growth forecast to reach 3.5 per cent this financial year. Some analysts predict it might be even stronger, possibly reaching as high as 4 per cent. Driven by Government spending Much of this is due to the lingering impact of the Federal Government’s massive $343 billion health and economic pandemic support packages, as well as further spending in response to recent floods in New South Wales and Queensland. The Government is also spending some $18 billion on infrastructure, mostly rail and road improvements, in an attempt to boost productivity and efficiencies throughout the economy, particularly in the regions. Tightening geo-political tensions in Asia and around the world has prompted the Government to earmark as much spending again on strategic defence measures, including a new naval submarine base on the east coast. Spurred by higher commodity prices The sudden, and largely unexpected, war in Ukraine has prompted a spike in oil prices as a shadow falls over the continued supply of Russian oil and gas to Western Europe. While prices will ease with the arrival of the Northern summer, they are expected to remain stubbornly high. The war, along with continued supply interruptions due to the pandemic’s lingering impact on world trade, means prices for key commodities such as iron ore, coal, and wheat will remain high for the foreseeable future. For Australia, this is, on balance, good news, meaning the price we are paid for key exports will remain strong, driving both domestic profits and Government tax revenue higher. Employment is exploding In line with this strong level of economic growth, domestic unemployment is set to fall to 3.75 per cent in the coming months, its lowest level in some 50 years. Meanwhile, whole sectors, such as the aged care and child-minding sectors and a number of agricultural sectors, are reporting desperate staff shortages, prompting calls to lift migration levels and allow more temporary workers into the country. Nonetheless, low wage growth continues to dog the economy. While the Government is forecasting quarterly wage growth of 3.25 per cent by the middle of next year, this is still below the expected inflation rate, meaning most Australians will face little relief from higher living costs. However, the continued strength of Government spending, combined with prevailing strong terms of trade, should boost profits across the board, leading to higher returns for investors. Despite some clouds on the horizon As always, there are clouds on the horizon. The United States was already facing inflationary pressures, and the impact of the Ukraine war on oil prices is likely to push the US inflation rate higher still, possibly touching 7.9 per cent this year. The US Federal Reserve has started to pull monetary policy back in with a series of interest rate hikes, fanning fears that the US economy may fall into recession later this year. The US is not alone. The Australian Federal Treasury expects global trade bottlenecks (the war in Ukraine and higher oil and food prices) to prompt an uptick in the local inflation rate above the Reserve Bank’s preferred inflation band of 2.5 to 3 per cent. Rising inflation is, in turn, spurring fears of a domestic interest rate hike, with many analysts expecting the cash rate to increase by one full percentage point, which could cause home loan rates to rise across the country.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Quarterly Economic Update: Jul – Sep 2023 

Quarterly Economic Update: Jul – Sep 2023 

Updated on Economy, Finance, Investing

Australia’s annual inflation rate has taken an unexpected step up, increasing pressure on the Reserve Bank to push interest rates higher and once again raising the prospect that Australia will fall into recession sometime over the next few months.  The annual inflation rate for the year to August reached 5.2 per cent, up from 4.9 per cent recorded for the year to July, spurred by higher prices for petrol, financial services, and labour costs, following the 5.75 per cent wage rise for 2.4 million Australian workers in July.  Some analysts believe recent wage increases and the Federal Government’s drive to reduce unemployment levels below their current historic low levels and provide more union friendly workplace regulations, will combine to push wages even higher.  The prospect of further wage hikes, low productive improvements combined with continued high levels of inflation, threatens to return the Australian economy to the dismal economic days of the seventies and with it, stagflation.  Of all the domestic price hikes though, higher petrol prices are seen as the most troubling as they have such significant flow through effects, making everything in the country more expensive to produce and so lifting the cost of living for all Australians.  The prospect of higher oil prices internationally, following a decision by Russia and Saudi Arabia to restrict production to boost prices, has cast gloom across the global economy, putting economies everywhere under pressure of higher energy costs.   Globally, US Treasury 10-year bond yields rose to above 4.5 per cent during the past month, taking them to their highest level since the global crisis started in 2007, as fears mount that climbing inflation will persist for years to come.   This, and the generally accept downturn in growth in the massive Chinese economy, is prompting fears overseas that the US economy will certainly fall into recession next year, with developed countries around the world certain to follow.  While there was hope the Reserve Bank was succeeding in driving down inflation, this latest uptick in prices and overseas interest rates, will put the Reserve Bank under renewed pressure to lift domestic rates yet again.  Although the much talked about fixed-rate mortgage cliff seems to have been averted, where homeowners have faced the end of super low fixed rate loans and been forced to move to higher variable rate loans, pressure is emerging in the housing market.  According to figures from the research house, Core Logic, the number of homes that have been sold at a nominal loss, and which have only been owned for two years or less, has increased from just 2.7% to 9.7% during the June quarter.   Pressure is building most clearly in the sale of home units with 14.4 per cent of all unit sales across Australia selling at a loss during the June quarter, compared to just 3.8 per cent of all homes sold during the same time.  There also seems to be a trend where people who moved to the regions during the pandemic are starting to sell up and drift back to the cities.  Resales within two years of purchase, made up 11.1% of all regional resales, compared to a decade average of 7.2% per year.  A rare bright spot for investors remains the hefty returns to shareholders with Australia’s largest listed companies paying out some $21.7 billion during the last week in September, by way of improved dividend payments.   BHP paid out $6.34 billion to their shareholders via a $1.25 per share dividend, Fortesque Metal paid out $3 billion via a $1 a share dividend and after posting a record-breaking profit, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia paid out $4 billion by way of a $2.40 a share dividend.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.