economic update australia coronavirus
|

Economic Update: July-September 2021

COVID-19, Economy

COVID here to stay

The third quarter of the calendar year brought with it the third and by far the biggest wave in COVID-19 infections. Largely restricted to NSW and Victoria the outbreak was driven by the highly infectious Delta variant. Such was its speed of spread it forced a change in strategy from one of elimination to learning to live with the virus, supported by a massive vaccination campaign. By quarter’s end vaccination rates were closing in on key targets that will allow a slow and selective lifting of the severe lockdown conditions that have prevailed for months.

Time to chill

You know Australia has a housing problem when the head of one of the big banks, in this case Matt Comyn at CBA, calls for action “sooner rather than later” to stop the property market overheating. This was on the back of CoreLogic data showing house prices in Melbourne and Sydney rose 15.6% and 26% respectively over the 12 months to August. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also called on Australian regulators to cool the market. Don’t expect this to happen through the usual instrument of increased interest rates. Rather, look for reduced lending in specific sectors, such as investors, higher deposit requirements, or testing loan serviceability at higher interest rates.

Pop goes iron ore

Iron ore’s price bubble eventually popped as China instructed its steelmakers to cut back on production. Over the quarter the ore price fell 45%, with major miners taking an equivalent hit. BHP, Rio and Fortescue saw their shares tumble 33%, 26% and 44% respectively.

Hot topic

In August the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its latest report. It warned that “unless there are immediate, rapid and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, limiting warming to 1.5°C or even 2°C will be beyond reach”. The report paints a grim picture of what that warmer world will look like and returned climate change to the front pages of the world’s newspapers.

The numbers

Equity markets experienced a bit of a rollercoaster ride over the quarter. All the major indices posted record highs, but most ended up within 1% of where they started.

The Aussie dollar also had a volatile quarter, trading between 71 and 75.4 US cents and finishing at 72 cents. It was a similar story against the other major currencies.

In both cases the late-quarter sell-offs were blamed on expectations of higher US interest rates.

On the radar

Many of the world’s leaders will come together in Glasgow at the end of October for the 26th UN Climate Change Conference (COP26). If they heed the warning from the IPCC, and if they agree to take the necessary steps to limit warming to 2°C (and preferably 1.5°C), it will set the scene for a dramatic economic transformation, with huge opportunities for those who can sort the winners from the losers.

Of more immediate concern, Chinese property company China Evergrande appears to be on the brink of collapse. Heavily indebted to the tune of US$300 billion, if it is allowed to fail it is likely to have global ramifications, not the least for Australia. China’s construction boom has been a huge driver of demand for our iron ore.

 

The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Similar Posts

When was the last time you paid cash?

When was the last time you paid cash?

Updated on Budgeting, Education

Prior to COVID, we were steadily moving towards a cashless world. Post 2020, even the most resilient of us has made the leap to tap-and-go payments sooner than we expected. From the morning coffee to filling up the petrol tank, we wave that plastic with little thought to the impact on our account balances. In fairness to us, many retailers are now adopting the ‘no-cash please’ trading regime, but we Australians have a reputation for embracing technology and touchless shopping is no exception. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Australian household debt is currently sitting at around 210% of net disposable income. That places us fifth in the world, behind Denmark (257%), Norway (240%), Netherlands (236%) and Switzerland (223%). Compared with countries with spending habits similar to our own – the USA with (105%) and the UK (142%) – we’re quite high. If your debt level is pushing northwards of your preferred limit, here are a few ideas for getting, and staying, on track: – Pay your full card balance off every monthSure, it’s an oldie but a goodie. You know what you need to do; if your current balance is too high, pay more than the minimum amount. The first step in breaking the credit cycle is to get off it, which leads into our next point: – Create a realistic budgetThis will identify where your money is going and how much extra you can pay off your credit cards. The government’s Moneysmart website has a free budget planner to help you. Alternatively, chat with your financial planner and work with them to develop a payment strategy to get your debts under control, and stay that way. – Keep your tap-and-go receipts and reconcile them against your account each weekThis is one of the best ways to see exactly how much you’re shelling out, and on what. You’ll identify areas of unnecessary spending, and you’ll spot any errors or dodgy transactions. – Instead of a credit card for your touchless transactions, consider using a pre-paid cardAvailable from banks and other financial institutions – even Australia Post offers one – you load it with your own money and use it for in-person or online shopping. It’s just like a credit card but without the risk of getting into debt. – Consider your subscriptionsYou know, streaming services, magazines and memberships, etc. Many renew automatically and the first you’ll know about it is an unexpected – often expensive – transaction on your card. Do a stocktake to see what subscriptions you have and decide if you really need them. For those you no longer need, change your subscription settings so they don’t automatically renew. Don’t worry, they’ll alert you when the renewal is due in case you change your mind! We’re definitely living in an interesting time. Our lives have altered in ways we’d never have imagined and we Australians, in our typical way, are adapting to these ‘new-norms’. This is a good thing, just as long as we stay in control!   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Quarterly Economic Update: July – September 2020

Quarterly Economic Update: July – September 2020

Updated on Finance, Investing

COVID-19 remained the big story of the last quarter. Tragically, by the end of September the pandemic had caused over one million deaths. That was up by 500,000 since the end of the previous quarter, and many countries were experiencing devastating ‘second waves’. While most of Australia managed to keep case numbers of coronavirus at very low levels, Victoria provided a case study in the severe human and economic impacts of having the virus escape control. Now it is epidemiologists, rather than economists, that we look to for advice on how to transition to a post-pandemic world. Unemployment ups and downs The official unemployment rate from the Australian Bureau of Statistics was 7.5% in July, but showed a welcome drop to 6.8% in August. Meanwhile, NSW claimed that 70% of jobs initially lost in the pandemic had been restored. However, when JobKeeper, people working zero hours but classified as employed, and a big jump in gig workers are taken into account, the real unemployment rate is much higher. Roy Morgan estimated that the actual unemployment rate is closer to 13.8% and the combined unemployment and under-employment rate is 22.8%. Still, both these figures were down from their peak in late March. Property problems The major property markets of Sydney and Melbourne declined for the fourth month in a row, with the ABS reporting that in the June quarter these major city housing markets dropped by 2.6 and 2.8% respectively. And the outlook for housing construction is none too rosy. Australia relies on immigration to generate the population growth that stimulates construction and supports the prices of existing dwellings. With our borders effectively closed that population growth will either be delayed or will fail to materialise. Rental income is also expected to decline, particularly in markets with a high proportion of overseas students who are unable to return to Australia. The markets After a bit of a rally through July and August the local share market ran out of steam, with the S&P 500 index finishing the quarter down by 1.4%. International markets continued to produce some excitement. Despite weakening a little towards the end of the quarter the MSCI All-Country World Equity Index rose 7.2%. Much of this was attributable to the US market with the S&P500 up 7.6% and the NASDAQ up 10.2%. The Aussie dollar also weakened slightly towards the end of the quarter, finishing flat against the Euro and British Pound, up 2% against the Yen, and up 3.8% (from the high 60s to low 70s) against the US Dollar. The outlook If you thought that interest rates couldn’t go any lower, think again. The RBA has flagged the possibility of a further cut in the cash rate with commentators predicting a cut of 15 basis points to take the rate to just 0.1%. Internationally, the US presidential election could see an increase in market volatility with the final outcome anything but certain. For further information on current market conditions, contact us.     The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Quarterly Economic Update: April – June 2024

Quarterly Economic Update: April – June 2024

Updated on Economy, Finance, Investing

The economy continues to slow, with inflation remaining sticky, the new federal budget making waves, and global events that may have a significant impact. Uncertainty at home and abroad The current outlook indicates uncertainty both domestically and internationally, making it unlikely that inflation will reach the target range of 2-3 per cent in the near future. May forecasts suggested that inflation would return to the target range by the second half of 2025 and reach the midpoint by 2026. However, recent indicators point to weak economic activity, such as slow GDP growth, an increase in the unemployment rate, sluggish wage growth, and uncertain consumption growth. Advanced economies are experiencing a slowdown in growth, although there are signs of improvement in the Chinese and US economies, along with increased commodity prices. Nevertheless, geopolitical uncertainties remain high, which could potentially disrupt supply chains. The Federal Budget focuses on social matters Treasurer Jim Chalmers presented the 2024-2025 Federal Budget on May 14, 2024. The government aimed to alleviate the cost of living without worsening inflation. Key announcements included: Interest rates remain steady, but the pain may not be over The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept interest rates on hold and the cash rate steady at 4.35 per cent throughout the quarter. At the June RBA board meeting, Governor Michele Bullock stated that the board has not dismissed the possibility of further rate hikes. Interest rates will stay at this level until the RBA’s next board meeting in early August. Inflation persists, despite slowing Inflation remains persistent, with the RBA predicting that it will take some time to consistently stay within the target range of 2-3 per cent. Although inflation has decreased significantly since its peak in 2022, the rate of decline has slowed. At the same time, economic growth has been limited as households cut back on non-essential spending due to income constraints. What are we spending on? Households are continuing to limit their spending on non-essential items. Spending on discretionary goods has shown a slow increase, rising by only 0.6 per cent over the year. On the other hand, spending on non-discretionary goods and services has risen by 5.8 per cent, mainly due to higher fuel and food costs. Household spending on health has significantly increased, showing a 15.7 per cent rise compared to this time last year. Health spending made the largest contribution to the overall 3.4 per cent rise in household spending in April. China lifts Aussie beef bans China has lifted bans on most beef and other exporters. The bans began in 2020 when China suspended beef exports from eight processors and imposed official and unofficial trade barriers on barley, coal, lobster, wood, and wine, costing exporters $20 billion Australian dollars ($13 billion) a year. These measures were viewed as politically motivated actions to penalise Australia, although China claimed they were related to trade issues. With the lifting of these bans, less than $1 billion worth of Australian exports are still being impeded. This marks a significant reduction from the previous $13 billion impact on Australian exporters. Trump down but not out Donald Trump’s conviction on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records has not stopped his campaign for President. As the November election looms closer, economists have expressed concerns about Trump’s campaign promise to impose a 10 per cent tariff on all US imports. If implemented, this and other trade policies could trigger another round of trade wars, disrupt international trade, and impact global growth. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Quarterly Economic Update: Oct – Dec 2023

Quarterly Economic Update: Oct – Dec 2023

Economy, Finance, Investing

Global growth is forecast to slow and remain below its historical average in 2024, reflective of tighter monetary policy in advanced economies, as well as a soft outlook for China. Australians can expect higher prices, higher interest rates and higher population growth, with economic growth and unemployment decreasing. Inflation continues to bite With a new Governor at the helm of the RBA, and inflation tracking down since its peak in the December quarter 2022, public sentiment hoped that rate rises would be paused. However, the RBA delivered another rate hike at the November 2023 meeting, bringing the official interest rate to 4.35% – the highest level since 2011. It is likely that an increase in the monthly CPI indicator was a key trigger for the RBA to raise rates, as the monthly indicator rose to 5.2 per cent in August, and then rose again to 5.6 per cent in the September data. However, the next monthly data point, for October (which came out after the November rate rise) had inflation decreasing to 4.9 per cent. Services inflation remains high and was the primary driver of stronger-than-expected underlying inflation in the September quarter. Interest rates – will they or won’t they? The RBA continues to be cautious about the inflation outlook for Australia for several reasons: high and sticky inflation in the services market, house prices recovering sooner than anticipated, a tight labour market and increasing population growth due to migration. A survey of 40 economists by the Australian Financial Review shows that the median forecast is that the RBA will start cutting rates in September 2024, whilst the bond market is projecting an easing of rates by mid-2024. The RBA will meet only eight times in 2024, reduced from 11, beginning in February – following an independent review ordered by the Treasury. Coupled with the RBA governor’s commitment to return inflation to the target range of 2-3%, more rate hikes may be on the cards. Holiday spending to remain flat A survey by Roy Morgan forecast shoppers to spend $66.8 billion during the pre-Christmas sales period, only up 0.1% from the same period in 2022, likely as a result of cost of living impacts. Sales spending for the Boxing Day period to December 31 was expected to be about $9 billion, including $3 billion on Boxing Day itself, as retailers prepared larger discounts than usual after a slow year. Hot Property House and unit prices grew steadily in 2023, with a national annual growth rate of 5.42% (6.54% in capital cities). The main drivers include the highest net overseas migration levels ever recorded, few vacant properties and stronger demand for established homes due to the construction industry facing capacity and cost issues. This growth forecast is expected to continue as most experts believe demand for housing will continue to outstrip supply. However, Australia’s cost of living increases and interest rate uncertainty will keep biting—leading to weaker price growth than previous years. The rental market remains in a critical shortage of available dwellings according to SQM Research. Due to the ongoing supply and demand imbalance, the market is expecting capital city rental increases of 7-10% for 2024, on top of an average 10% market increase in 2023. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.  

What to consider when withdrawing your super early

What to consider when withdrawing your super early

Updated on Finance

[fsn_row][fsn_column width=”12″][fsn_text] As the COVID-19 virus took a sledgehammer to the economy, the federal government rapidly introduced a range of initiatives to help individuals who lost income as a result of the measures taken to control the virus.   One of those initiatives was to allow qualifying individuals access to a portion of their superannuation to help them meet their living costs. Withdrawals are tax free and don’t need to be included in tax returns. Most people can withdraw up to $10,000 in the 2019/2020 financial year and up to a further $10,000 in the 2020/2021 financial year.   For many people this early access to super will prove to be a financial lifesaver, but for others the short-term gain may lead to a significant dip in wealth at retirement. And the younger you are, the greater that impact on retirement is likely to be.   Alexander provides an example that many people will be able to relate to. He’s a 30-year-old hospitality worker, and due to the casual nature of his recent employment he is not eligible for the JobKeeper allowance. He is eligible to apply for early release of his super under the COVID-19 provisions, however before going down this route he wants an idea of what the withdrawal will mean to his long term situation.   Taking the maxMuch depends, of course, on the future performance of his superannuation fund. However, if Alexander withdraws $20,000 over the two financial years, and if his super fund delivers a modest 3% per annum net return (after fees, tax and inflation), then by age pension age (currently 67), Alexander will have $39,700 less in retirement savings than if he doesn’t make the withdrawal.   At a 4% net return, he will be $65,360 worse off if he makes the super withdrawal.   But that’s not the only disadvantage for Alexander. A smaller lump sum at retirement means a lower annual income. If Alexander draws down his super over a 20 year period, at a 3% net return, he will be around $2,670 worse off each year as a result of making the withdrawal. Over 20 years that adds up to a total loss of $53,375. At a 4% return, his youthful withdrawal will cost him over $96,000 by the time he reaches 87.   Reducing the riskOn the plus side, if Alexander is eligible for a part age pension when he retires, his smaller superannuation balance may see him receive a bigger age pension.   There are other things Alexander can do to reduce the financial consequences of accessing his super early. One is to only make the withdrawal if he absolutely has to. Or if he does make the withdrawal, to use the bare minimum and, when his employment situation improves, to contribute the remaining amount back to his super fund as a non-concessional contribution.   COVID-19 is adding further complexity to our financial lives, so before making decisions that may have a long-term impact, speak to us.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice. [/fsn_text][/fsn_column][/fsn_row]

Mistakes new investors should avoid

Mistakes new investors should avoid

Updated on Education, Investing

You’re young, expecting a satisfying future brimming with friends, family and a comfortable lifestyle. You’re a Next Generation Investor, likely aged between 18 and 25, and you’re starting to think about financial security. According to an Australian Stock Exchange study, nearly a quarter of all investors over the past two years were Next Generation Investors. Additionally, some 27% of surveyed people under age 25 intend to invest over the next year. The excitement of embarking on a journey toward financial freedom is common, as is confusion, after all, in the rush of enthusiasm, how can you ensure you get the decisions made for the future, right today? What are the rookie mistakes to watch out for? Here are a few that can be easily avoided. Not clearing debt first Loans and credit cards have a knack for eating away income. It is recommended that you clear as much debt as possible before committing to serious investments. Track your spending to spot potential savings, then channel that cash towards your debts. Every little bit helps. No strategy Desire to build wealth through investment is not a strategy. The end game determines which investments will be most suitable. Consider how you feel about risk and whether you’ll need access to your money. Successful investment strategies are planned. If it feels overwhelming, seek professional advice to help you build your strategy. You’ll be surprised at how inexpensive a financial adviser can be. Not diversifying Generally speaking, the higher the potential return, the higher the potential risk. Market-linked investments, like shares, can be big-earners, but you’ll have to ride economic ups-and-downs to get there – sometimes for ten years or more. If this worries you, consider lower-risk investments. Conservative in nature, their returns are generally lower. Decide how much risk you’re comfortable with. You may be better off minimising exposure to high-risk assets by diversifying your portfolio with a variety of investment types. Trying to predict the market Investment markets are notoriously unpredictable. Buying shares at the wrong time can mean you pay more than you should, similarly, selling at the wrong time can result in losses. Short-term buying and selling might seem exciting, but it’s a fast-track to losing money. The way around this is, research, diversification and being prepared to stay the distance. Review No investment is a set-and-forget scheme. Always keep track of your savings and your ongoing investment plan, ensuring that it continues to align with your goals, particularly as they change over time. A new car may be your priority today but fast-forward a couple of years and perhaps marriage and children are your priorities. As your goals change, so must your investment strategy. A few other things… Fees and taxes are unavoidable and various investments attract different expenses and tax structures. Find out what you’re up for before making financial decisions. Feeling lost? The Australian Stock Exchange offers free online courses and the Government’s MoneySmart website has a free info Starter Pack to get you underway. Of course, nothing beats professional advice tailored to your needs. The Financial Planning Association of Australia will put you in touch with a qualified adviser suitable for you. Strategic investing sets you up financially and helps create a savings habit for life. Your financial future begins today.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.