Economic Update: July-September 2021

7 October, 20217 October, 2021 COVID-19, Economy

COVID here to stay

The third quarter of the calendar year brought with it the third and by far the biggest wave in COVID-19 infections. Largely restricted to NSW and Victoria the outbreak was driven by the highly infectious Delta variant. Such was its speed of spread it forced a change in strategy from one of elimination to learning to live with the virus, supported by a massive vaccination campaign. By quarter’s end vaccination rates were closing in on key targets that will allow a slow and selective lifting of the severe lockdown conditions that have prevailed for months.

Time to chill

You know Australia has a housing problem when the head of one of the big banks, in this case Matt Comyn at CBA, calls for action “sooner rather than later” to stop the property market overheating. This was on the back of CoreLogic data showing house prices in Melbourne and Sydney rose 15.6% and 26% respectively over the 12 months to August. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also called on Australian regulators to cool the market. Don’t expect this to happen through the usual instrument of increased interest rates. Rather, look for reduced lending in specific sectors, such as investors, higher deposit requirements, or testing loan serviceability at higher interest rates.

Pop goes iron ore

Iron ore’s price bubble eventually popped as China instructed its steelmakers to cut back on production. Over the quarter the ore price fell 45%, with major miners taking an equivalent hit. BHP, Rio and Fortescue saw their shares tumble 33%, 26% and 44% respectively.

Hot topic

In August the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its latest report. It warned that “unless there are immediate, rapid and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, limiting warming to 1.5°C or even 2°C will be beyond reach”. The report paints a grim picture of what that warmer world will look like and returned climate change to the front pages of the world’s newspapers.

The numbers

Equity markets experienced a bit of a rollercoaster ride over the quarter. All the major indices posted record highs, but most ended up within 1% of where they started.

The Aussie dollar also had a volatile quarter, trading between 71 and 75.4 US cents and finishing at 72 cents. It was a similar story against the other major currencies.

In both cases the late-quarter sell-offs were blamed on expectations of higher US interest rates.

On the radar

Many of the world’s leaders will come together in Glasgow at the end of October for the 26th UN Climate Change Conference (COP26). If they heed the warning from the IPCC, and if they agree to take the necessary steps to limit warming to 2°C (and preferably 1.5°C), it will set the scene for a dramatic economic transformation, with huge opportunities for those who can sort the winners from the losers.

Of more immediate concern, Chinese property company China Evergrande appears to be on the brink of collapse. Heavily indebted to the tune of US$300 billion, if it is allowed to fail it is likely to have global ramifications, not the least for Australia. China’s construction boom has been a huge driver of demand for our iron ore.

The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Federal Budget 2023-24 Summary

24 May, 202318 May, 2023 Updated on18 May, 2023 Centrelink, Economy, Superannuation, Tax

Lady Luck has once again looked down fondly upon Australia, creating the first Federal Budget surplus in 15 years, through a higher tax take on record export earnings and increasing income tax receipts from higher job numbers. But how long will the good times last? Domestic economic growth is expected to buckle under the weight of higher interest rates. As a result, annual gross domestic product is expected to fall to just 1.5 per cent in 2023 -2024, recovering slightly to just 2.25 per cent the following year. This low growth forecast, down from 3.25 per cent currently, comes despite an expected surge in immigration numbers to 300,000, while inflation is forecast to stay stubbornly close to the 6 per cent mark for 2022-2023. The Budget papers suggest inflation will eventually fall within the Reserve Bank‘s guidelines, but not for some time, raising the possibility of stagflation engulfing economic growth. At the same time, unemployment is expected to rise from its record low level of 3.5 per cent to 4.5 per cent the following year and remain at this level for the foreseeable future. Nonetheless, this is a true Labor Budget. The Federal Government will boost Job Seeker payments by $40 a fortnight, provide greater rent assistance and energy subsidies to low-income households, as well as lower medicine costs and provide cheaper doctor visits for all Australians. Increased wage payments for those working in the aged care sector and increased childcare subsidies should also help to reduce the pressure on working families struggling to deal with the recent uptick in cost-of-living pressures. An estimated 60,000 single parents will also be able to claim the Single Parent welfare payment benefit from September 1, with the Government lifting the eligibility age for the youngest child in a family from 8 to 14 years. The Government insists these measured spending increases are targeted and restrained and will work to reduce the rate of inflation. However, only time will tell if the Reserve Bank agrees that a lift in overall government spending via the Budget will work to bring down prices. The Government hopes to reduce housing pressures by encouraging investment in rental housing by lowering the annual profit on build-to-rent projects from 30 to 15 per cent. But beyond this, this Budget has very little to help struggling businesses. It does, though, include some $4 billion to encourage new green energy programs, including $2 billion to support large-scale hydrogen production and $1.3 billion to help households upgrade their existing homes through the Household Energy Upgrades Fund. At the same time, big-ticket items within the Budget just get bigger. There is a brave estimate that spending within the NDIS will be restrained, yet there is no actual strategy for achieving this other than to reduce waste. The cost of providing health services has never been higher, while defence spending is expected to surge to $20 billion over the next four years, including some $9 billion to be spent on the new AUKUS nuclear-powered submarines. Little has been done to boost Government revenue beyond more fairly taxing windfall profits in the gas industry and increasing the tax bill for super accounts with more than $3 million in assets. Beyond this, nothing has been done to address the structural challenges within the Budget. Meanwhile, there is already unrest that the Job Seeker allowance is not being increased sufficiently to pull recipients out of poverty, with cost of living pressures at record highs for Australia’s most vulnerable people. All at a time when the Budget is in surplus. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

The female investor

6 July, 202229 June, 2022 Updated on29 June, 2022 Investing

Investment and portfolio building has traditionally been a male-dominated world, but these days more women are trading on the market – and they’re good at it! According to an ASX Australian Investor Study completed in 2020, female investors make up 42% of Australian investors, yet 45% of those only began investing in the year prior to 2020. It’s intriguing that younger women – known as Next Generation Investors aged 18 – 25 – are taking up stock portfolios. Their goals include saving for a holiday (50%) or paying down existing debt (34%). The ASX study highlighted a few other interesting points: Women prefer products more commonly understood, such as direct Australian shares (53%), residential investment property (37%) and term deposits (31%). Women are less concerned than men about low interest rates and market fluctuations, but consider issues like whom to trust, hidden fees and liquidity. While men are more accepting of market volatility, women prefer stable or guaranteed investment returns. While we’re about breaking down stereotypes, the study found that women are generally more successful in their investments than men. This could be because women are cautious by nature, taking longer to research investment choices and, once settled, preferring to ride out market ups and downs. Conversely, men tend to regularly review their portfolios and trade aggressively, buying and selling assets, potentially incurring additional fees and losses due to market swings. In recent times there has been a surge in Australian women backing other Australian women in start-up business ventures. According to SmartCompany.com.au, female venture capitalists are recognising that entrepreneurial women face a specific set of challenges, such as a lack of networking and mentoring opportunities, and lingering perceptions around gender-based work/family roles. Further, support for Indigenous businesswomen is increasing as women’s investment networks strive to encourage women from diverse backgrounds. Fact is, almost 40% of Australian women who are single for reasons of divorce, widowhood or otherwise, will retire in poverty. Issues around the gender pay gap are recognised contributors to women generally having less money in savings and/or superannuation: women save an average of $598 per month compared with men $839. In an effort to improve these figures, many women strive to secure their financial futures through self-education: magazines, blogs, podcasts etc. Others seek professional advice through referral from a trusted friend or relative. The financial planning industry recognises that more women are actively investing. Financial advisers are developing strategies specific to women’s needs and goals – in fact, the industry is well-served by a large number of financial professionals who are women. The Financial Planning Association of Australia (FPA) can put you in touch with a qualified professional adviser, just like us, so you can ensure all your decisions are well-informed and that your personal needs and goals are considered. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Quarterly Economic Update: October-December 2021

19 January, 202220 April, 2022 Updated on20 April, 2022 COVID-19, Economy, Investing

Coronavirus Victoria and New South Wales saw their economies roar back to life as they emerged from lockdown just in time for a new kid to arrive on the coronavirus block. Omicron spread around the world seemingly within days knocking Delta off the front pages. Appearing to cause less severe disease than previous strains, and with Australia achieving high rates of immunisation, state governments held off resorting to lockdowns in an attempt to minimise financial carnage on businesses and workers. All this battling against the virus comes at an enormous cost. The mid-year budget update forecasts annual deficits of around $100 billion for the next few years, no surplus over the next ten years, and gross debt of $1.2 trillion by 2024-2025. Jobs galore The unemployment rate dipped to 4.6% in November as an additional 366,100 people joined the ranks of the employed. The under-employment rate fell 2% to 7.5%, and many employers reported difficulties in finding staff. Homebuyer hopes Homebuyers gained a little power over sellers towards the end of the year as a surge in listings saw auction clearance rates in Melbourne and Sydney drop to 66% and 73% respectively. If this extra supply is maintained it should help to cool what has been a very hot property market. COP this The Covid-delayed climate change conference COP26 was finally held in Glasgow, and Australia joined the large number of countries aiming to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050. Good progress was made in some areas, such as reducing methane emissions, ending deforestation and, for some countries, phasing down coal. However, modelling predicts that if all current commitments are fulfilled we will still see temperatures rise by 2.4 degrees. This is well short of the Paris Agreement goal to limit warming to 2 degrees, and preferably 1.5 degrees. The Glasgow Climate pact calls on nations to “strengthen their pledges to reduce emissions by the end of 2022.” Expensive energy Major energy users suffered from a big spike in the costs of both coal and natural gas during the quarter. Prices corrected abruptly in November, but still remained much higher than at the start of the year. Oil prices were also higher, nudging US$85 per barrel during October and November. Aside from hitting consumers’ petrol and home energy bills, high energy prices also led to an increase in the cost of, and shortages of urea – a chemical that is critical to the production of fertilizer (and therefore food) and to keeping diesel trucks on the road. Ups and downs The volatility in the value of the Aussie dollar against major currencies continued for the quarter. It traded between 70 US cents and 75 US cents in line with its long-term trend. We gained more than 3.7% against the Euro and Yen, and held ground against the British Pound. The local share market failed to excite, tracking sideways before putting on a small end of year spurt that saw the S&P ASX 200 close the quarter up 1.5%. It was a different story for US stocks. The S&P500 closed out the year at a record high after lifting nearly 11% for the quarter. The Nasdaq was close behind with a 9% gain. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Quarterly Economic Update: January-March 2024

9 April, 20244 April, 2024 Updated on4 April, 2024 Economy, Finance, Investing

The first quarter of 2024 saw the Government roll out considerable changes to the Stage 3 Tax Cuts, inflation continuing to slow but remaining stubbornly high across some areas, surging stock market highs and continuing pressures in the property sector. Government Overhauls Stage 3 Tax Cuts In January, the Labor government unveiled changes to the proposed stage 3 tax cuts, aimed at providing bigger tax cuts to middle Australia. The new changes, which passed the Senate to become law in February, retain the tax bracket that would have been scrapped under the original proposal, and adjust tax rates to benefit both lower and higher-income earners. The changes will take effect from July 1 and are summarised as follows: Taxable Income Bracket Tax rate New Tax Plan from July 1, 2024 Below $18,200 0% $18,200 to $45,000 16% $45,000 to $135,000 30% $135,000 to $190,000 37% Above $190,000 45% Original Stage 3 tax cuts Below $18,200 0% $18,200 to $45,000 19% $45,000 to $200,000 30% Above $200,000 45% Inflation continues to ease Inflation continues on a downward trend, with the RBA expecting it to return to the target range of 2-3 percent in 2025, and reach the midpoint in 2026. Service price inflation remains high despite goods price inflation decreasing, supported by continued excess demand and strong domestic cost pressures. The RBA expects the consumer price index (CPI) to come in at 3.3% by June, compared with 3.9% forecast three months ago. As a result, the board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.35 per cent at the first official meeting for the year.  Share Market Highs Global share markets have been breaking records this quarter, with the ASX200, S&P500, Eurozone and Japanese markets reaching record highs, helped by US inflation data coming in as expected, leaving the Fed on track to cut rates from mid-year. Whilst economic growth both locally and globally is forecast to slow, there is optimism in the market as inflation has started easing and is likely to continue falling, and central banks across the US, Canada and Europe are expected to start cutting rates in the coming months. Recession still looms as a risk, but it appears the economy may be moving toward a soft landing. Housing market continues to tighten The national vacancy rate fell to a new low of 0.7 per cent in February, highlighting the ongoing supply and demands challenges in rental properties across Australia, as a result of a construction sector under strain, rapid population growth from migration, and rising property prices. Whilst the government has put stricter measures on international students to try to ease demand pressures, supply continues to be an issue, with building approvals falling by 1 per cent in January, though multi-unit dwelling approvals increased by 19.5 per cent in the same period. Property prices continued to rise despite higher interest rates, inflation and cost of living concerns. The Home Value Index was up 0.6 per cent nationally in February, and showed an increase in all capital cities except Hobart. Labour market cooling Labour market conditions cooled over the December quarter 2023, with an ongoing shift away from full-time employment and growth in part-time jobs, and a decrease in recruitment activity. These trends are consistent with Treasury forecasts that growth will continue to ease and the unemployment rate will increase from 3.9 per cent in January to 4.2 per cent by June, and 4.3 per cent by the end of the year. Despite clear softening, labour market conditions remain tight, and many employers are experiencing challenges finding suitable workers to fill positions, while some shortage pressures remain evident. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice. 

Federal Budget Highlights 2022-23

13 April, 20226 April, 2022 Updated on6 April, 2022 Economy

The Federal Government has delivered a big-spending 2022 budget, taking immediate steps to reduce cost of living pressures for working Australians while implementing a range of massive infrastructure and defence spending measures. The Government will slash the fuel excise by half, effective immediately, as well as provide a one-off cash hand out of $250 to a range of social security recipients, and a $450 additional tax offset for low- and middle-income earners. Productivity will be boosted across the nation by enhanced training incentives, dramatic tax measures to drive greater digital adoption and improve computer-based efficiencies as well as steps to boost the nation’s overall level of self-sufficiency. Concerns about the growing budget deficit, which has now reached $78 billion, have been largely put on the back burner with confidence placed in the fact that as the economy grows, this will naturally reduce. A bounding economy The Australian economy has posted astonishing growth. It has come roaring out of two years of pandemic induced lockdowns, to post strong growth across the nation, spurred on by higher prices for coal, iron ore and wheat. Gross domestic product is expected to expand by a massive 4.2% this year while wages are expected to grow by 2.75% and surge by 3.25 % in the following year. Unemployment is currently 4%, but this is expected to drop to 3.75 % over the next six months – its lowest level since 1974. An extra 100,000 Australians have found work compared to employment numbers recorded when the pandemic first hit in March 2020. This is expected to help slash welfare payments by $11 billion across the next four years. A focus on increased productivity Training and improved productivity remains a key focus, with the Government implementing a $365 million extension to the existing apprentice wage subsidy scheme, in an attempt to further boost apprenticeship training. The Federal Government is continuing its focus on boosting business productivity allowing a $120 tax deduction for every $100 spent on digital adoption technology, such as portable payment systems, cyber security measures and subscriptions to cloud based services. A similar tax measure will be introduced for businesses providing external training courses to staff whether online or in-person, to increase productivity throughout the economy. This will be supported by a raft of Government driven efficiencies such as digitalising trust income reporting, improved PAYG systems and automatic reporting of taxable payments. And a more efficient economy The 2022-23 budget also includes a raft of infrastructure projects that will drive greater efficiencies and economic growth across Australia in the decade ahead. In addition, the Government has announced steps to develop a circular waste economy, support low emission technologies including hydrogen, extended gas pipeline infrastructure and more efficient environment approval strategies. Source: budget.gov.au The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

When was the last time you paid cash?

7 July, 202130 June, 2021 Updated on30 June, 2021 Budgeting, Education

Prior to COVID, we were steadily moving towards a cashless world. Post 2020, even the most resilient of us has made the leap to tap-and-go payments sooner than we expected. From the morning coffee to filling up the petrol tank, we wave that plastic with little thought to the impact on our account balances. In fairness to us, many retailers are now adopting the ‘no-cash please’ trading regime, but we Australians have a reputation for embracing technology and touchless shopping is no exception. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Australian household debt is currently sitting at around 210% of net disposable income. That places us fifth in the world, behind Denmark (257%), Norway (240%), Netherlands (236%) and Switzerland (223%). Compared with countries with spending habits similar to our own – the USA with (105%) and the UK (142%) – we’re quite high. If your debt level is pushing northwards of your preferred limit, here are a few ideas for getting, and staying, on track: – Pay your full card balance off every monthSure, it’s an oldie but a goodie. You know what you need to do; if your current balance is too high, pay more than the minimum amount. The first step in breaking the credit cycle is to get off it, which leads into our next point: – Create a realistic budgetThis will identify where your money is going and how much extra you can pay off your credit cards. The government’s Moneysmart website has a free budget planner to help you. Alternatively, chat with your financial planner and work with them to develop a payment strategy to get your debts under control, and stay that way. – Keep your tap-and-go receipts and reconcile them against your account each weekThis is one of the best ways to see exactly how much you’re shelling out, and on what. You’ll identify areas of unnecessary spending, and you’ll spot any errors or dodgy transactions. – Instead of a credit card for your touchless transactions, consider using a pre-paid cardAvailable from banks and other financial institutions – even Australia Post offers one – you load it with your own money and use it for in-person or online shopping. It’s just like a credit card but without the risk of getting into debt. – Consider your subscriptionsYou know, streaming services, magazines and memberships, etc. Many renew automatically and the first you’ll know about it is an unexpected – often expensive – transaction on your card. Do a stocktake to see what subscriptions you have and decide if you really need them. For those you no longer need, change your subscription settings so they don’t automatically renew. Don’t worry, they’ll alert you when the renewal is due in case you change your mind! We’re definitely living in an interesting time. Our lives have altered in ways we’d never have imagined and we Australians, in our typical way, are adapting to these ‘new-norms’. This is a good thing, just as long as we stay in control! The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Similar Posts