economic update australia coronavirus
|

Economic Update: July-September 2021

COVID-19, Economy

COVID here to stay

The third quarter of the calendar year brought with it the third and by far the biggest wave in COVID-19 infections. Largely restricted to NSW and Victoria the outbreak was driven by the highly infectious Delta variant. Such was its speed of spread it forced a change in strategy from one of elimination to learning to live with the virus, supported by a massive vaccination campaign. By quarter’s end vaccination rates were closing in on key targets that will allow a slow and selective lifting of the severe lockdown conditions that have prevailed for months.

Time to chill

You know Australia has a housing problem when the head of one of the big banks, in this case Matt Comyn at CBA, calls for action “sooner rather than later” to stop the property market overheating. This was on the back of CoreLogic data showing house prices in Melbourne and Sydney rose 15.6% and 26% respectively over the 12 months to August. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also called on Australian regulators to cool the market. Don’t expect this to happen through the usual instrument of increased interest rates. Rather, look for reduced lending in specific sectors, such as investors, higher deposit requirements, or testing loan serviceability at higher interest rates.

Pop goes iron ore

Iron ore’s price bubble eventually popped as China instructed its steelmakers to cut back on production. Over the quarter the ore price fell 45%, with major miners taking an equivalent hit. BHP, Rio and Fortescue saw their shares tumble 33%, 26% and 44% respectively.

Hot topic

In August the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its latest report. It warned that “unless there are immediate, rapid and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, limiting warming to 1.5°C or even 2°C will be beyond reach”. The report paints a grim picture of what that warmer world will look like and returned climate change to the front pages of the world’s newspapers.

The numbers

Equity markets experienced a bit of a rollercoaster ride over the quarter. All the major indices posted record highs, but most ended up within 1% of where they started.

The Aussie dollar also had a volatile quarter, trading between 71 and 75.4 US cents and finishing at 72 cents. It was a similar story against the other major currencies.

In both cases the late-quarter sell-offs were blamed on expectations of higher US interest rates.

On the radar

Many of the world’s leaders will come together in Glasgow at the end of October for the 26th UN Climate Change Conference (COP26). If they heed the warning from the IPCC, and if they agree to take the necessary steps to limit warming to 2°C (and preferably 1.5°C), it will set the scene for a dramatic economic transformation, with huge opportunities for those who can sort the winners from the losers.

Of more immediate concern, Chinese property company China Evergrande appears to be on the brink of collapse. Heavily indebted to the tune of US$300 billion, if it is allowed to fail it is likely to have global ramifications, not the least for Australia. China’s construction boom has been a huge driver of demand for our iron ore.

 

The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Similar Posts

Horror $47,000 cost blows up the owning vs. renting debate: ‘More expensive’

Horror $47,000 cost blows up the owning vs. renting debate: ‘More expensive’

Budgeting, Education, Finance

Financial advisor Robert Goudie has warned Aussies about the extra costs involved in owning a home and that renting isn’t always dead money. You might have heard the phrase that renting is “dead money” or that you’re just “paying off someone’s mortgage”. When you’re forking out hundreds of dollars a week to keep a roof over your head, that idea can seem fairly depressing. But Consortium Private Wealth financial advisor Robert Goudie wants Aussies to change their mindset when approaching rental payments. He told Yahoo Finance that while property ownership should still be a major goal for Aussies, it’s not always the most ideal situation and you shouldn’t rush into it without understanding what you’re paying. “From what I’ve seen, sometimes it’s more expensive to own the property because no one thinks about the cost of ownership, which is your rates, and your insurance, and your water and service charges. and any maintenance that might be applicable,” he said. He wanted to set the record straight and did the calculations for how much you can save when you rent. Goudie gave an example of Person A who was spending $500 per week on a house worth $750,000 and Person B who bought a $750,000 house and lived in it. Person A would have spent $26,000 in a year on rent. However, the other person, who stumped up an impressive $100,000 deposit and had a 6.5 per cent interest rate on their loan, would have paid $42,250 just on the interest for the mortgage. When you add on rates and insurance costs, the annual bill rises to $47,250, or just short of $910 per week. That means Person A will be able to save $410 more per week than Person B. “People say rent is always dead money. Is interest not dead money? Paying money to a big corporation making billions… I think it is,” Goudie explained to Yahoo Finance. “If rent is dead money, then interest should be considered dead money as well.” Buying might not be the best idea right now The financial advisor wants this general advice to be a warning for Aussies to do the calculations themselves to work out if buying a property is going to be the best financial move for them. “I don’t blame young people for wanting to get on the property ladder… there is that feeling of, ‘If I don’t get in now, [property prices] just keep going up’,” Goudie explained to Yahoo Finance. However, he gave an example of a client who has a home, but the mortgage repayments are so much higher than the rent he used to pay that he now feels “guilty” about having a coffee at a cafe. “That’s not living,” Goudie said. What about capital growth? Yes, there is the very real elephant in the room about the big difference between renting and owning a property. When you have bought a home, you will hopefully be able to live in it when it’s fully paid off. In that case, it’s far cheaper than renting. You can also use it as equity to buy another property or you could sell it for more than what you paid for. Goudie pointed out that not every home that is bought benefits from capital growth and can sometimes go down in value, which is what is being seen in parts of Melbourne this year. But even if it does go up in value, you can’t use that capital growth in the short term to pay for your food or keep the lights on. The financial advisor said his weekly cost comparison was designed purely to compare “apples to apples”. Many Aussies think property ownership is out of reach Goudie admitted that while you might save hundreds of dollars a week by renting, it’s not a long-term and secure way to look at accommodation. “I can’t imagine myself at age 85 renting with the threat of being kicked out at a moment’s notice, because in Australia, we do not have long-term lease or rental agreements,” he said. “There needs to be changes in that space.” But for many Aussies, the idea of owning a home is a distant or even completely out-of-reach concept. According to new research by Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI), three in five renters expect they will never own their own home. “This shows a significant shift for Australian renters,” lead researcher Professor Emma Baker of the University of Adelaide. “Whereas previously anyone who desired home ownership believed they would be able to move into that tenure, now more Australians are conscious that this dream may not be a possibility for them.” Property prices have been soaring in cities across Australia at the same time that inflation and stagnant wage growth have impacted many peoples’ wallets. But this isn’t just a young Australian issue either. AHURI’s research found the proportion of people renting in the private market has increased across all age brackets from people in their late teens to their 80s and above. “The rise of renting in Australia is a multigenerational phenomenon,” Professor Baker said. Source: https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/horror-47000-cost-blows-up-the-owning-vs-renting-debate-more-expensive-053110244.html The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.  

An often forgotten aspect of insurance

An often forgotten aspect of insurance

Updated on Economy, Insurance

When most people think about financial planning, they tend to focus on the wealth creation side of things, but often forget about the wealth protection. Building a financial plan without adequate insurance is like building a house on flimsy foundations. Comprehensive insurance cover can be a significant expense; however, these costs can be made more affordable by taking advantage of the tax deductions that apply to specific types of insurance, and to some methods of implementing insurance. Income protection Due to the high frequency of claims, premiums for income protection insurance can be quite high. However, they are tax-deductible, so the cost is discounted at the same rate as the policy holder’s marginal tax rate. For example, someone on a marginal tax rate of 39% (including 2% Medicare levy), paying a premium of $1,000 would have an out of pocket cost of just $590, after the tax deduction is claimed. It needs to be remembered, however, that any benefits paid under an income protection policy are treated as assessable income, and therefore subject to tax. Life insurance While the premiums for life insurance are not normally tax-deductible to individuals, there is a simple way to gain a tax benefit. Superannuation funds can claim a tax deduction for the life insurance premiums they pay. So, by taking out life insurance via a superannuation fund, a similar result can be gained as if the premium was deductible to the person taking the insurance. Using superannuation to provide life insurance has another potential benefit. As premiums are paid by the fund, it reduces the pressure on household cash flow. This may reduce the ultimate superannuation payout, but if the savings made outside of super are used wisely, the overall financial position should be improved. The proceeds of life insurance are generally not taxable. However, a death benefit paid from a super fund to a non-dependant may be subject to some tax. Total and permanent disability insurance (TPD) TPD insurance is usually attached to life insurance. From a tax perspective it’s treated in a similar way, so implementing it via superannuation is usually the most tax-effective way to do it. However, TPD policies held in super must have a stricter definition of what constitutes ‘total and permanent disability’ than similar policies held outside of super. Trauma insurance Trauma insurance pays a lump sum if the policy holder suffers a defined medical condition or injury. It cannot be implemented through superannuation. Premiums are not tax-deductible, but benefit payments are not subject to tax. As with investing, the main focus on insurance shouldn’t just be on saving tax. It is a protection tool. Always talk to a qualified adviser to ensure you get the appropriate level of cover, and the most tax effective way to implement it.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Fixed rate mortgage expiring… Now what?

Fixed rate mortgage expiring… Now what?

Updated on Budgeting, Economy, Finance

If your fixed interest rate expiry is coming up, you might have started to think about what happens next and what action you need to take. Or you might be sticking your head in the sand and avoiding the topic entirely. Be warned! The worst thing you can do is take no action at all. If your fixed interest period is due to expire, then it’s time for a review of your finances – Revisit your budget A fixed rate expiry will mean a change to what is often one of our biggest expenses – the home loan repayment. In a rising interest rate environment, this likely means a bigger expense you will need to allow for. By revisiting your budget, you can make sure you can afford the new home loan repayment amount, or adjust your spending where needed. Know your financial situation Your financial situation is going to impact what options are available to you and what options might be best for you. If there’s been recent changes to your income position such as job loss, income reduction or maternity leave, for example, this may impact your ability to refinance your loan. As a result, you may have to stick with your current lender on terms you may not be happy with. If you have surplus cash flow that you want to use to reduce debt, a variable rate loan might be more appropriate so that you’re not as limited with the ability to make repayments. Alternatively, if cash flow is tight, you might appreciate the stability of a fixed rate loan, and knowing your repayment amounts won’t increase during the fixed rate period. By having a good understanding of your current financial position and future goals, you can determine what your needs are and what the best strategy is for you moving forward. Look at what the market is doing One of the main factors to consider when deciding between a fixed and variable interest rate is the current market. While no one has a crystal ball, it’s important to consider what is happening with the economy, housing markets and interest rates. Are interest rates trending up or down? And what might this mean for both fixed and variable interest rate loans? Get clear on your options When your fixed interest term expires, you will need to choose between either re-fixing your loan for a period or switching to a variable interest rate loan. This is also a good opportunity to review your existing loan provider against other loan providers, to ensure you are being offered a competitive rate. With your market research in hand, it’s time to call your existing lender to request a rate review. You can let them know you are considering refinancing your loan and want to know what the best they could offer is. It might be time to switch lenders if they’re not prepared to offer you a competitive rate.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

2024-25 Federal Budget Recap 

2024-25 Federal Budget Recap 

Centrelink, Economy, Superannuation, Tax

In his 2024 Federal Budget speech, treasurer, Jim Chalmers, announced that ‘The number one priority of this government and this Budget is helping Australians with the cost of living’.  But what exactly does that mean?   Let’s take a closer look at what the 2024 Budget proposes –   An average tax cut of $1,888 in 2024-25  The budget proposes significant tax relief for ALL Australian taxpayers to alleviate cost-of-living pressures, including reduced tax rates, adjustments to the income thresholds, and increased low-income thresholds for the Medicare levy.   This measure aims to boost disposable income and encourage economic activity by allowing Australians to retain more of their earnings.  $300 back in the pocket for ALL Australian Households  To combat rising energy costs, the government has allocated $3.5 billion for a one-time $300 energy bill rebate for all Australian households, designed to directly reduce headline inflation by about 0.5 percentage points in 2024-25 without adding to broader inflationary pressures.  This initiative also extends to one million small businesses, receiving a $325 rebate.  Superannuation contributions on paid parental leave  The 2024 budget integrates enhancements to parental leave and childcare into comprehensive support for families. It includes a $1.1 billion investment to extend superannuation contributions to government-funded Paid Parental Leave, improving financial security for new parents.   Additionally, the budget boosts childcare support, aiming to make childcare more affordable through increased subsidies, reducing the financial burden on families and supporting parents’ return to work.   These measures are part of a broader effort to provide more robust support for families and promote gender equality.  $3 billion in student debt… wiped  In an effort to alleviate the burden of education costs, the budget proposes a change to the way the government calculates HELP debt indexation, erasing $3 billion in student debt for over 3 million Australians.   An investment in education for Australians  The budget commits to reforming tertiary education and increasing vocational training funding, aligning skills training with market needs.   Specifically, it allocates $88.8 million to provide 20,000 new fee-free TAFE places, including pre-apprenticeship programs relevant to the construction industry.   Additionally, the government is introducing Commonwealth Prac Payments to support students undertaking mandatory placements, offering $319.50 per week to more than 73,000 eligible students, which includes those in fields like nursing and social work.   This investment is part of a broader effort to align skills training with labor market demands and support sectors critical to economic growth.  Supporting small businesses  To aid small businesses, the 2024 budget extends the $20,000 instant asset write-off for an additional year, enabling continued investment in necessary business equipment. This extension is designed to enhance the cash flow of small enterprises and encourage further economic activity among local businesses.   Additionally, the budget includes investments to support the mental and financial well-being of small business owners, recognising the unique challenges they face and bolstering the resources available to them for sustainable operation.  Access to affordable medicines  The budget allocates up to $3 billion to reduce the maximum PBS co-payments. This includes a one-year freeze on the maximum patient co-payment for everyone with a Medicare card and a five-year freeze for pensioners and other concession cardholders, ensuring that no pensioner or concession card holder will pay more than $7.70 for PBS-listed medications until 2030.  … And an increase to health funding  The budget allocates $888.1 million to expand mental health services. This includes funding for new and existing programs that provide critical support for individuals facing mental health challenges.    An additional $2.2 billion is directed towards improving the aged care system, and investments are made in strengthening Medicare with a focus on urgent care clinics, reducing hospital admissions, and supporting regional and remote health services.  This expansion aims to provide wider access to necessary health services, significantly improving health outcomes and making healthcare more affordable and accessible to more Australians.  A 10% increase to Commonwealth Rent Assistance  In response to the housing affordability crisis, the budget increases Commonwealth Rent Assistance by 10%, benefiting nearly 1 million households. This follows a 15% increase from the previous year, marking a substantial boost to aid renters, especially given the rising rental market costs.  Housing affordability  The government is investing $6.2 billion in new housing initiatives to tackle affordability and accessibility.   This funding supports the construction of more homes, including affordable and social housing options, addressing critical housing shortages and supporting community infrastructure development.   The 2024-25 Federal Budget is strategically focused on alleviating financial pressure through targeted support measures. By understanding and applying these benefits, Australian households can better navigate the challenges of rising living costs.  For tailored advice on how to adjust your financial plan in light of the new budget measures, consider consulting with a financial adviser or accountant. They can help you understand the specific impacts on your personal finances and strategise accordingly.  The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.  

COVID-19 Economic Update

COVID-19 Economic Update

Updated on COVID-19, Finance

During the last quarter one story has dominated the news – COVID-19. By the end of June at least 10 million people had contracted the disease, and over 500,000 had died. With 8,000 cases and 104 deaths, Australia was amongst the countries that have been most successful in limiting its spread. However, this success came with a major cost. By June, 800,000 fewer people were on the nation’s payrolls than at the start of the pandemic. The travel, hospitality and entertainment sectors were particularly hard-hit. One consequence of this major loss of employment is that many people took advantage of the ability to withdraw up to $10,000 from their superannuation prior to the end of June. As of mid-June, over 2.3 million people had applied, with nearly $16 billion worth of withdrawals processed. A further $10,000 can be withdrawn in the new financial year. While this will prove a real lifeline for the many people who need the money now, those who do withdraw the maximum amounts are likely to be tens of thousands of dollars worse off in retirement, with younger people facing the biggest losses. Key numbers Perhaps surprisingly, investment markets took an optimistic view of the long-term financial consequences of COVID-19. While not returning to its record highs, the S&P ASX200 index rose 16% over the quarter, a little behind the MSCI All-Country World Equity Index (up 18.7%) and the US S&P500 (up 18%). However, the real action was on the tech-heavy NASDAQ, which lifted 30.6% over the three months to set a new high. The RBA cash rate stayed at 0.25%, with no great expectations of a change anytime soon. The Aussie dollar rose steadily, increasing from 61.7 to 69.1 US cents from the end of March until end of June. It enjoyed similar gains against the British Pound and Japanese Yen, and a slightly smaller gain against the Euro. While there are many factors that influence the value of the dollar, this last quarter saw it closely following the fortunes of one of our major export commodities – iron ore. What next? COVID-19 is likely to remain the dominant story for some time yet. Following the initial lockdown, countries around the world, Australia included, are conducting something of an experiment in trying to ease restrictions without triggering ‘second waves’ or other outbreaks. Events in Victoria have shown how challenging this can be, but successfully lifting lockdowns is a critical step towards restoring anything resembling normal economic activity. Another challenge facing the federal government is how to continue to support the millions of people on the JobKeeper allowance and the JobSeeker supplement. With these programs due to end in September, there is concern that their sudden cessation will deliver another blow to the economy.   The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Economic Update: First quarter results reflect shock

Economic Update: First quarter results reflect shock

Updated on Finance

The first quarter of 2020 will forever be remembered for delivering one of the greatest health and economic shocks of all time. The economic damage was an inevitable consequence of governments worldwide taking unprecedented action to curb the spread of the novel coronavirus that emerged in China in December 2019. Never have so many people in so many countries experienced such major upheaval to their daily lives at the one time. With numerous countries enacting harsh measures to reduce person-to-person spread of the virus, many sectors of most economies effectively ground to a halt. Tourism, travel, entertainment and hospitality were particularly badly affected, but the fallout will be felt far and wide for some time to come. By the numbersFinancial markets (and many governments) were slow to appreciate the magnitude of the coronavirus threat. Major share markets rose steadily, setting record highs on 20 February, then, as the likely economic consequences of tackling coronavirus became apparent, markets plunged. From its peak of 7,163 the S&P/ASX 200 index fell to 4,546 on 23 March. A rally then saw the index rise to 5,077 at the end of March, 24% down from the start of the quarter. In the US, the S&P 500 fell 34% from top to bottom. The MSCI All-Country World Equity Index dropped 35%. Both indices recovered ground at the end of the quarter to limit January to March losses to 18% and 21% respectively. The Reserve Bank moved quickly to further cut interest rates to 0.25%. This is as low as the RBA is prepared to go, with the Governor indicating this rate will be with us for several years come. Partly in response, and partly due to investors seeking the relative safety of the US dollar, the Australian dollar plunged from US$0.66 US to US$0.55. It then staged a partial recovery to end the quarter at US$0.61. Falls against other currencies were less severe. Massive stimulusGovernments around the world responded with programs that will, over time, pump almost unimaginable sums of money into the economy – hundreds of billions of dollars in Australia, trillions in the US. Banks have deferred some loan repayments, and many landlords will forgo rent payments. The focus is on helping employers retain staff, to provide income support to people who do lose their jobs, and to assist pensioners. One aim is to minimise economic disruption now to facilitate a quicker recovery once coronavirus is brought under control. However, despite these economic initiatives, escalating public health measures saw thousands of businesses close in March, with job losses estimated to be more than one million. While most of the economic stimulus measures were widely applauded, some concern was expressed over the ability of eligible people to withdraw up to $10,000 from superannuation this financial year, and again in 2020/2021. Withdrawing money from super at a time of depressed prices will likely have a major adverse impact on future superannuation savings, leading a number of observers to suggest that this option only be considered once all others have been exhausted. Few silver liningsIt’s difficult to find any silver linings in the clouds of the current crisis. While motorists may welcome the drop in petrol prices, due to oil falling from over US$60 per barrel to near US$20 per barrel, this is a sign of how hard the pandemic is hitting the economy. One small positive: with airlines grounded, people staying home and many industries closed, air pollution and carbon dioxide emissions are down. For advice on how to manage your investments through this financial downturn contact us today.   This is general information only