COVID-19 Economic Update

15 July, 202017 September, 2021 Updated on17 September, 2021 COVID-19, Finance

During the last quarter one story has dominated the news – COVID-19. By the end of June at least 10 million people had contracted the disease, and over 500,000 had died. With 8,000 cases and 104 deaths, Australia was amongst the countries that have been most successful in limiting its spread. However, this success came with a major cost. By June, 800,000 fewer people were on the nation’s payrolls than at the start of the pandemic. The travel, hospitality and entertainment sectors were particularly hard-hit.

One consequence of this major loss of employment is that many people took advantage of the ability to withdraw up to $10,000 from their superannuation prior to the end of June. As of mid-June, over 2.3 million people had applied, with nearly $16 billion worth of withdrawals processed. A further $10,000 can be withdrawn in the new financial year. While this will prove a real lifeline for the many people who need the money now, those who do withdraw the maximum amounts are likely to be tens of thousands of dollars worse off in retirement, with younger people facing the biggest losses.

Key numbers
Perhaps surprisingly, investment markets took an optimistic view of the long-term financial consequences of COVID-19. While not returning to its record highs, the S&P ASX200 index rose 16% over the quarter, a little behind the MSCI All-Country World Equity Index (up 18.7%) and the US S&P500 (up 18%). However, the real action was on the tech-heavy NASDAQ, which lifted 30.6% over the three months to set a new high.

The RBA cash rate stayed at 0.25%, with no great expectations of a change anytime soon.

The Aussie dollar rose steadily, increasing from 61.7 to 69.1 US cents from the end of March until end of June. It enjoyed similar gains against the British Pound and Japanese Yen, and a slightly smaller gain against the Euro. While there are many factors that influence the value of the dollar, this last quarter saw it closely following the fortunes of one of our major export commodities – iron ore.

What next?
COVID-19 is likely to remain the dominant story for some time yet. Following the initial lockdown, countries around the world, Australia included, are conducting something of an experiment in trying to ease restrictions without triggering ‘second waves’ or other outbreaks. Events in Victoria have shown how challenging this can be, but successfully lifting lockdowns is a critical step towards restoring anything resembling normal economic activity.

Another challenge facing the federal government is how to continue to support the millions of people on the JobKeeper allowance and the JobSeeker supplement. With these programs due to end in September, there is concern that their sudden cessation will deliver another blow to the economy.

The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Quarterly Economic Update: July-September 2022

12 October, 202212 October, 2022 Economy, Finance

As geo-political tensions tighten in Ukraine, economies around the world are reeling from mounting energy prices, soaring costs of living and in a desperate attempt to bring down inflation, higher interest rates. The US economy appears certain to fall into recession. Markets have suddenly become volatile as shares are sold in preference to holding funds in defensive assets such as cash. This in turn is reaping havoc on world currency markets. Funds are flooding into US dollar denominated investments and in doing so, are sending the value of the greenback sky high against other currencies. Speculation is mounting that the British pound may fall to historic lows in coming months and may even reach parity with the US dollar, driven by the newly elected Prime Minister Liz Truss, implementing a big borrowing, low taxing budget. This controversial attempt to boost the British economy comes at a time when central banks around the world, including the Bank of England, are lifting interest rates in order to reduce economic activity and so, dramatically slow the rate of inflation. The Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development is now forecasting economic growth will slow from 2.8 to 2.2 per cent during the next twelve months as the United States, China and Europe all cut back on economic activity. While Australia is not spared from this global slowdown, with the OECD forecasting domestic growth will tumble from 2.5 to 2 per cent during the coming year, it should survive this turbulent period better than most. Much will depend on this month’s Federal Budget. The first by the newly elected Albanese Government, it will tread a line between its reform agenda including much talk about tax cuts and trying to slow the economy and so reduce inflation. Although the employment rate across the nation remains high, spiralling prices for basic foodstuffs and other essentials is putting enormous pressure on the Government to provide relief to those struggling to get by. In the meantime, petrol prices are set to bounce higher as the Federal Government restores the fuel excise tax, adding 23 cents a litre to both petrol and diesel sold in Australia. In addition, the Reserve Bank has made it clear it will continue to lift the domestic cash rate and with it most other local interest rates, until it has clawed back the rate of inflation from an expected high of 7 per cent, to less than 3 per cent. Higher interest rates are already impacting homebuyers. Five rate rises since May, mean a couple earning $92,000 each, can now borrow $264,000 less than they could in April according to analysis by the research house, Canstar. So even with a 20 per cent deposit, a couple’s maximum budget has dropped from more than $1.63 million to $1.37 million and this in turn is being reflected by prices in the property market. As buyer’s budgets have fallen, so too have property prices. CoreLogic Home Value Index shows house prices in Sydney have dropped by 7.6 per cent this year while Melbourne prices have fallen by 4.6 per cent. With the Reserve Bank determined to force even higher interest rates on the economy in order to defeat inflation, there is no end in sight to higher interest rates and further property price falls. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Retirement wrongs that could send you broke!

14 September, 202229 September, 2022 Updated on29 September, 2022 Finance

While retirement should be the best years of your life, many Australians make simple, avoidable mistakes with their finances that can leave them without the funds to really enjoy life. However, with some simple good advice at the start of retirement, these mistakes can usually be avoided, leaving retirees to focus on what is really important and that is, simply enjoying life. Making emotional investment decisions Many people reach retirement age and panic that they don’t have enough money. This then prompts them to make high risk investments in the vague hope of catching up on lost time. Too often their dreams of big profits blind them to risks and many end up losing a chunk, if not all, of their money. All retirement savings are irreplaceable and should be invested with this in mind. Ignoring your portfolio At the other end of the spectrum are retirees who think they have so little saved for retirement that it doesn’t matter what they do with it, in terms of their investments, it won’t make any difference to their lives. This is almost as big a mistake as taking excessive risks. No matter how much money you have saved for retirement, you should be pro-active in making sure these funds are safely invested and providing for you. Miscalculating your retirement funds Many misjudge either the total amount they have to retire on, and/or, the level of income it will generate. This is particularly the case when the decision is made to keep an investment property in retirement. The high value can often give a false sense of financial security, while the actual income generated after all the costs are deducted, can be extremely low. Determine just how much money you have saved for retirement, conservatively judge how much income will be generated from those savings and ensure you don’t spend more than your investments generate. Changing asset allocations to conservative assets, such as cash For many, retirement is the first time they have had to manage or decide how to invest a large amount of money. This can be unnerving at the best of times. Throw in a small market downturn and it is not unusual for people to panic and sell perfectly good investments. This is, of course, the worst option. By panicking and selling investments when the market has taken a step down, losses are locked in and any chance of recovering those funds as the market improves, is lost. Keeping up with the “Joneses” Too often, we’re swept along by what others do. Focus on how you want to live. Think about what will make you happy in retirement and then invest your savings safely so you can focus on enjoying life. For most, the things that make them happiest are free. Time spent with grandchildren, walking barefoot on a beach, or spending time in the garden, all cost very little money and are a fabulous boost to the body, health and mind. If you have any doubts at all about how you should structure your finances, make the decision to get quality advice before you make any of these mistakes. It will be the best investment you make in retirement. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

How to create a Debt Repayment Plan

29 March, 202329 March, 2023 Budgeting, Finance, Superannuation

Debt can be overwhelming and stressful, but creating a plan to pay it off can help ease that burden. In Australia, household debt is on the rise, with the average household owing over $260,000 in 2021, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. If you’re struggling with debt, here are some tips and strategies for creating a debt repayment plan. Create a Budget The first step in creating a debt repayment plan is to create a budget. This will help you understand where your money is going and where you can cut back on expenses. List all of your income and expenses, including bills, rent or mortgage payments, groceries, and any other expenses. Once you have a clear picture of your finances, you can start to identify areas where you can save money. Prioritise High-Interest Debt If you have multiple debts, it’s important to prioritise the ones with the highest interest rates. These debts are costing you the most money in interest charges, so paying them off first will save you money in the long run. Make minimum payments on all of your debts, and put any extra money towards the one with the highest interest rate. Automate Payments Automating your debt payments can help ensure that you don’t miss any payments and incur late fees. Set up automatic payments for the minimum payments on all of your debts, and then add extra payments as you can afford them. This will also help you stay on track with your debt repayment plan. Choose a Repayment Strategy There are different methods of debt repayment, such as the snowball and avalanche methods. The snowball method involves paying off the smallest debt first, while the avalanche method involves paying off the debt with the highest interest rate first. Choose the method that works best for your situation, and stick to it. Case Study Let’s compare two scenarios to see how creating a debt repayment plan can make a difference. Scenario 1: Sarah has $10,000 in credit card debt, with an interest rate of 20%. She is making minimum payments of $200 per month, but is struggling to make progress on paying off the debt. Scenario 2: John has the same amount of credit card debt, but has created a debt repayment plan. He is making minimum payments of $200 per month, but has also cut back on expenses and is putting an extra $200 per month towards the debt. He is using the avalanche method, and has prioritised the credit card with the highest interest rate of 25%. After one year, Sarah will still have $8,360 in credit card debt, and will have paid $1,440 in interest charges. In contrast, John will have paid off $4,800 of his debt, and will have saved $1,200 in interest charges. Creating a debt repayment plan can make a big difference in your financial situation. By creating a budget, prioritising high-interest debt, automating payments, and choosing a repayment strategy, you can take control of your debt and work towards becoming debt-free. If you need help creating a debt repayment plan, speak with our advisers who can provide guidance and support. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Are you investing or gambling?

26 August, 202017 September, 2021 Updated on17 September, 2021 Investing

The potential financial results of investing can feel limitless, and it can be tempting to think that just one stock pick could make you an overnight millionaire. Yes, stock-picking can have a place in your investment strategy, but if you’re using a “get rich quick” mentality, you may be gambling, not investing. What’s the difference? One of the key differences between investing and gambling is process and strategy. If you don’t have a process and strategy in place, it is a sign that you need to establish or refine your plan. Further, gambling focuses on emotions such as hope. Investing, on the other hand, is all about strategy. With a clear strategy, you know approximately how much your investments will grow and over what time horizons. How do you know if you’re investing effectively? If you’re unsure whether your current investment approach is working to realise your goals, think about your investment process and how many of the below five elements are included in your approach. Completing no research If you’re not completing any research and putting money into assets based on tips from friends or what you see on social media, you’re exposing yourself to increased risk and not doing enough due diligence. Investing in micro-cap stocks only Micro-cap stocks typically have a market capitalisation under $500 million and are ranked from 350 to 600 on the Australian Stock Exchange. With a relatively small market capitalisation, buying stocks in these companies can be cheap. The downside, however, is that these companies are usually in their infancy and experience volatile price fluctuations. There’s a place for micro-cap stocks in your investing. However, if you’re putting all of your money into these companies, you’re likely exposing yourself to unnecessary risk. Investing with short time horizons Putting all of your money into short-term investments or activities such as day trading is an indication that you’re too focused on short-term gains without a long-term strategy. There’s a place for short time horizons in your investing, but only once you’ve mastered the foundations such as establishing a long-term plan and ensuring you have adequate cash buffers. Lack of diversification If all of your money is invested in one asset class, you’ll be over-exposed to volatility in a single market. To ensure your money grows consistently over time, your money needs to be balanced across a range of asset classes and sectors. Having no investment strategy If you don’t have an investment strategy, your investing won’t be as effective as it could be. To start putting together an investment strategy, you need to think about things such as: building up adequate cash buffers; how much money you need invested to live comfortably off your returns; and when you anticipate you’ll start drawing an income from your investments. Moving forward with a long-term wealth strategy Investing in different asset classes such as equities, commodities, and fixed-income assets is a great way to build long-term wealth. To build this wealth, however, you need a strategy and process to follow. If you’re unsure how to develop an investment strategy, be sure to seek qualified financial advice. Investing in this advice now can reap great rewards in the years to come, ensuring your money is working to help you realise your financial and lifestyle goals sooner. Contact us to get started. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

The female investor

6 July, 202229 June, 2022 Updated on29 June, 2022 Investing

Investment and portfolio building has traditionally been a male-dominated world, but these days more women are trading on the market – and they’re good at it! According to an ASX Australian Investor Study completed in 2020, female investors make up 42% of Australian investors, yet 45% of those only began investing in the year prior to 2020. It’s intriguing that younger women – known as Next Generation Investors aged 18 – 25 – are taking up stock portfolios. Their goals include saving for a holiday (50%) or paying down existing debt (34%). The ASX study highlighted a few other interesting points: Women prefer products more commonly understood, such as direct Australian shares (53%), residential investment property (37%) and term deposits (31%). Women are less concerned than men about low interest rates and market fluctuations, but consider issues like whom to trust, hidden fees and liquidity. While men are more accepting of market volatility, women prefer stable or guaranteed investment returns. While we’re about breaking down stereotypes, the study found that women are generally more successful in their investments than men. This could be because women are cautious by nature, taking longer to research investment choices and, once settled, preferring to ride out market ups and downs. Conversely, men tend to regularly review their portfolios and trade aggressively, buying and selling assets, potentially incurring additional fees and losses due to market swings. In recent times there has been a surge in Australian women backing other Australian women in start-up business ventures. According to SmartCompany.com.au, female venture capitalists are recognising that entrepreneurial women face a specific set of challenges, such as a lack of networking and mentoring opportunities, and lingering perceptions around gender-based work/family roles. Further, support for Indigenous businesswomen is increasing as women’s investment networks strive to encourage women from diverse backgrounds. Fact is, almost 40% of Australian women who are single for reasons of divorce, widowhood or otherwise, will retire in poverty. Issues around the gender pay gap are recognised contributors to women generally having less money in savings and/or superannuation: women save an average of $598 per month compared with men $839. In an effort to improve these figures, many women strive to secure their financial futures through self-education: magazines, blogs, podcasts etc. Others seek professional advice through referral from a trusted friend or relative. The financial planning industry recognises that more women are actively investing. Financial advisers are developing strategies specific to women’s needs and goals – in fact, the industry is well-served by a large number of financial professionals who are women. The Financial Planning Association of Australia (FPA) can put you in touch with a qualified professional adviser, just like us, so you can ensure all your decisions are well-informed and that your personal needs and goals are considered. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Are we jeopardising the bank of Mum & Dad?

13 September, 20238 November, 2023 Updated on8 November, 2023 Education, Finance

The temptation is obvious. Soaring house prices have made buying a home tough for most home buyers and prompted many parents to think they should step in and make a financial contribution. The typical argument is that Mum and Dad don’t really need the money and that their children will inherit it one day anyway so it might as well be now when it can do some real good. As a result of this thinking, the Bank of Mum and Dad is now estimated to be one of the top 10 mortgage lenders in the country, as more and more people turn to their parents for financial help when buying a home. According to Digital Finance Analytics, parents are now contributing $90,000 on average towards the first home deposit of each of their adult children, up 20 per cent in the past twelve months. With the median house price in Australia’s combined capital cities now $896,000, parents contribute just over 10 per cent as a deposit, or if two sets of parents are involved, 20 per cent as a deposit. For most parents, this is a large amount of money, which can be given to their children either as a straight-out gift or as a formal loan or so-called ‘soft’ loan. Typically, this is done by drawing down against the value of their home as security and gifting the funds or providing a guarantee for their child to buy a home using their home as collateral. The financial comparison site, Finder, estimates that 60 per cent of all first-home buyers access funds from their parents to buy their first home. More, it found that 50 per cent of these children were facing some level of financial stress before deciding to buy a property with the help of their parents. While gaining financial support from Mum and Dad might be essential for many Australians to take that first step onto the home ownership ladder, is it a good decision for Mum and Dad? While some parents can afford this financial handout, it is only the case for some. Figures from the Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia show 1.68 million, or more than half of all Australians over 70, have no super. Of those older Australians who do have super, the median value is between $100,000 and $149,000, suggesting few in this age bracket have funds they can afford to give away. ASFA estimates only 185,000 Australians have $500,000 or more in super, and about 27,325 individuals have more than $2 million in super – a figure where giving funds to children might be affordable. These figures change considerably for Australians in the 50–70 age bracket as these younger Australians have had access to super for longer. However, it’s clear that the Bank of Mum and Dad is not as flush with funds as suspected, and many are sowing the seeds of their own financial destruction. While it is simple in the first flush of retirement to think there is more than enough to support Mum and Dad for as long as they live, life events might undermine this. No one knows how long they will live or what medical issues they may face through retirement, which could mean they themselves need every cent they have. Throw in the prospect of one or both parents needing to move into a nursing home at some stage, which can be a significant cost of around $500,000 per parent; then their finances start looking very shaky. The real fear is that in trying to help their children buy a home, all the Bank of Mum and Dad is really doing is pushing up house prices and sowing the seeds of their own financial problems. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

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