Why the share market is not the same as the economy

26 October, 202219 October, 2022 Updated on19 October, 2022 Economy, Finance

At the beginning of 2022 the Australian economy appeared to be sliding into recession, dragged down by higher interest rates and even higher inflation levels. As a result, it was tempting to believe the share market was also set to tumble.

And while that’s not impossible, the local market traded higher during each of Australia’s last nine recessions, with some of the strongest trading on the Australian share market occurring when the economy was contracting.

For example, 1983 was the best year ever on the Australian share market, climbing 60 per cent higher, while the economy was stuck hard in the 1981-1983 recession. So, while it is tempting to think poor economic times mean a dismal outlook for the market, there are four key reasons why that is usually not the case.

Firstly, the market is driven by expectations.

There is an old saying; investors buy on the rumour and sell on the facts. Big share market falls occur suddenly, well before the economy officially moves into recession, as investors promptly react to bad news.

Once the economy is in recession, investors look to the future and how companies can take advantage of emerging opportunities in an improving economy. Improvements that can take time to show up in economic data.

Secondly, the share market reflects investor sentiment, while consumer concerns and beliefs dominate the economy.

Consumers might cut back on buying clothes or going out in preference to boosting savings when they fear bad times.

In contrast, professional investors are constantly looking for opportunities, and economic downturns where small businesses go bust and consumer sentiment changes, usually create them.

Thirdly, the share market comprises large successful companies.

In contrast, economic statistics are dominated by what is happening to individuals and small businesses. Two groups that can respond very differently to world events.

For example, the war in Ukraine prompted a rise in energy prices, particularly for oil. Most individuals and small businesses responded by cutting back on their petrol consumption, while large oil companies are cranking up production to take advantage of these higher prices.

Finally, the share market has a much smaller universe than the economy.

The market is made up of large companies entirely focused on getting larger and more profitable and, in doing so, attracting more investors to support their efforts.

The economy is made up of Governments, individuals, and small businesses, all making a wide range of decisions about how they will live and operate in an ever-changing world and are basing those decisions on a raft of factors.

So, while the share market and economy are connected, they are influenced by widely different variants that often see them heading in different directions.

The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Positioning your portfolio in turbulent times

23 September, 202017 September, 2021 Updated on17 September, 2021 Finance, Investing, Superannuation

As any experienced investor knows, all investment markets have their ups and downs. Regardless of investor experience, turbulent times are a cause of anxiety, and that can lead to poor decision-making. So, if turbulent markets are inevitable, even if their timing is not predictable, how should portfolios be positioned in anticipation of and in response to market volatility? What’s your objective? First up, it’s important to go back to your investment objective. Is it to grow wealth over the medium to long term? Or are you more concerned with preserving capital? Your objective also needs to take account of your risk profile. With your risk tolerance and objectives clarified, it’s time to get to grips with asset allocation. This is the process of deciding what proportion of your portfolio will be allocated to each of the major asset classes: cash, fixed interest, property and shares. Asset allocation is the engine room of your portfolio. The amount that you apportion to the major asset classes has the biggest effect on your portfolio performance. It has a greater bearing on your returns than individual asset selection. Asset allocation is also your key risk management tool, the more you allocate to shares and property the greater the volatility, and therefore the risk. However, in this context, risk isn’t always a bad thing. A higher risk portfolio may at times fall more in value than a lower risks portfolio, but over the long term it is also more likely to generate higher returns. Oops, too late Unfortunately, the motivation to position a portfolio for turbulent times is often a sudden upset in investment markets. But this doesn’t mean it’s too late to do anything. If your investment objectives and risk tolerance haven’t changed, rebalancing your portfolio (i.e. bringing the asset allocation back to its ideal position) may help to position it for the next upswing in investment markets. Waiting out the storms While positioning can help with portfolio risk management, many investors opt to wait out any storms. Why? Because for all the ups and downs, bull markets and bear markets, bubbles and crashes, major share markets have delivered solid long-term growth. In fact, it has been claimed that investors have lost more money trying to anticipate corrections, than they would have lost in riding out actual corrections. A detached view Concerned about the financial outlook and your portfolio’s current position? We can provide an impartial assessment of your portfolio, help you identify your objectives and your risk tolerance, and recommend investments to help you weather the turbulent times. Talk to us today to get started. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Federal Budget Highlights 2022-23

13 April, 20226 April, 2022 Updated on6 April, 2022 Economy

The Federal Government has delivered a big-spending 2022 budget, taking immediate steps to reduce cost of living pressures for working Australians while implementing a range of massive infrastructure and defence spending measures. The Government will slash the fuel excise by half, effective immediately, as well as provide a one-off cash hand out of $250 to a range of social security recipients, and a $450 additional tax offset for low- and middle-income earners. Productivity will be boosted across the nation by enhanced training incentives, dramatic tax measures to drive greater digital adoption and improve computer-based efficiencies as well as steps to boost the nation’s overall level of self-sufficiency. Concerns about the growing budget deficit, which has now reached $78 billion, have been largely put on the back burner with confidence placed in the fact that as the economy grows, this will naturally reduce. A bounding economy The Australian economy has posted astonishing growth. It has come roaring out of two years of pandemic induced lockdowns, to post strong growth across the nation, spurred on by higher prices for coal, iron ore and wheat. Gross domestic product is expected to expand by a massive 4.2% this year while wages are expected to grow by 2.75% and surge by 3.25 % in the following year. Unemployment is currently 4%, but this is expected to drop to 3.75 % over the next six months – its lowest level since 1974. An extra 100,000 Australians have found work compared to employment numbers recorded when the pandemic first hit in March 2020. This is expected to help slash welfare payments by $11 billion across the next four years. A focus on increased productivity Training and improved productivity remains a key focus, with the Government implementing a $365 million extension to the existing apprentice wage subsidy scheme, in an attempt to further boost apprenticeship training. The Federal Government is continuing its focus on boosting business productivity allowing a $120 tax deduction for every $100 spent on digital adoption technology, such as portable payment systems, cyber security measures and subscriptions to cloud based services. A similar tax measure will be introduced for businesses providing external training courses to staff whether online or in-person, to increase productivity throughout the economy. This will be supported by a raft of Government driven efficiencies such as digitalising trust income reporting, improved PAYG systems and automatic reporting of taxable payments. And a more efficient economy The 2022-23 budget also includes a raft of infrastructure projects that will drive greater efficiencies and economic growth across Australia in the decade ahead. In addition, the Government has announced steps to develop a circular waste economy, support low emission technologies including hydrogen, extended gas pipeline infrastructure and more efficient environment approval strategies. Source: budget.gov.au The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

What can you tell your employees about Super?

14 November, 20188 September, 2022 Updated on8 September, 2022 Finance

It’s a common question asked by employees: “what should I do about my super?” If you are an employer or manager and feel confident of your knowledge of superannuation and investment, it can be tempting to give an answer. However, just about anything helpful you have to say will likely fall within the definition of giving financial product advice, and that could land you in very hot water. The boundaries Financial product advice is a recommendation or statement of opinion that: is intended to influence a person or persons in making a decision in relation to a financial product or class of products; or could reasonably be regarded as being intended to have such an influence. The Corporations Act casts a wide net. Financial product advice can include anything you say about: joining, or making contributions to, a superannuation fund; making additional contributions to a super fund, including by salary sacrifice; rolling accumulated superannuation into or out of a fund; and selecting particular investment or insurance options within a superannuation fund. The ability to provide advice is generally restricted to holders of an Australian Financial Services Licence or their representatives. Very few employers, or their staff, fall into this category, and giving financial product advice, even inadvertently, could lead to prosecution. What can you talk about? You can provide factual information that does not include a recommendation, an opinion, or an intention to influence a person’s decision regarding their super. This allows you to provide information about: employees’ rights and employer obligations; how your employees can tell you what superannuation fund or retirement savings account (RSA) they want their superannuation guarantee contributions paid into; or the employer fund into which you will pay superannuation guarantee contributions if the employee doesn’t nominate a superannuation fund or RSA. You can also give your employees the Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) of your default superannuation fund. Just don’t provide any explanation of the material it contains or attempt to recommend the default fund. How can you help? None of this precludes you from helping your employees. You just need to go about it the right way. For example, you can refer employees to a licensed or authorised adviser. Just be sure to disclose any benefit you may gain from making such a referral. Or you can ask a superannuation fund provider to make a presentation to your employees. Take care, though, that you don’t give the impression of either endorsing or disapproving of the fund in question. Being asked for advice is recognition that your employees respect your views and knowledge. It can be flattering and you may well know a great deal about superannuation and investment. However, without the necessary authorisation, you need to steer well clear of financial product advice. And it’s not just you who needs to be aware of these restrictions. You need to ensure that your HR staff and line managers are also aware. What can you tell your employees about Super 14/11/2018 This is general information only

2024-25 Federal Budget Recap

15 May, 202415 May, 2024 Centrelink, Economy, Superannuation, Tax

In his 2024 Federal Budget speech, treasurer, Jim Chalmers, announced that ‘The number one priority of this government and this Budget is helping Australians with the cost of living’. But what exactly does that mean? Let’s take a closer look at what the 2024 Budget proposes – An average tax cut of $1,888 in 2024-25 The budget proposes significant tax relief for ALL Australian taxpayers to alleviate cost-of-living pressures, including reduced tax rates, adjustments to the income thresholds, and increased low-income thresholds for the Medicare levy. This measure aims to boost disposable income and encourage economic activity by allowing Australians to retain more of their earnings. $300 back in the pocket for ALL Australian Households To combat rising energy costs, the government has allocated $3.5 billion for a one-time $300 energy bill rebate for all Australian households, designed to directly reduce headline inflation by about 0.5 percentage points in 2024-25 without adding to broader inflationary pressures. This initiative also extends to one million small businesses, receiving a $325 rebate. Superannuation contributions on paid parental leave The 2024 budget integrates enhancements to parental leave and childcare into comprehensive support for families. It includes a $1.1 billion investment to extend superannuation contributions to government-funded Paid Parental Leave, improving financial security for new parents. Additionally, the budget boosts childcare support, aiming to make childcare more affordable through increased subsidies, reducing the financial burden on families and supporting parents’ return to work. These measures are part of a broader effort to provide more robust support for families and promote gender equality. $3 billion in student debt… wiped In an effort to alleviate the burden of education costs, the budget proposes a change to the way the government calculates HELP debt indexation, erasing $3 billion in student debt for over 3 million Australians. An investment in education for Australians The budget commits to reforming tertiary education and increasing vocational training funding, aligning skills training with market needs. Specifically, it allocates $88.8 million to provide 20,000 new fee-free TAFE places, including pre-apprenticeship programs relevant to the construction industry. Additionally, the government is introducing Commonwealth Prac Payments to support students undertaking mandatory placements, offering $319.50 per week to more than 73,000 eligible students, which includes those in fields like nursing and social work. This investment is part of a broader effort to align skills training with labor market demands and support sectors critical to economic growth. Supporting small businesses To aid small businesses, the 2024 budget extends the $20,000 instant asset write-off for an additional year, enabling continued investment in necessary business equipment. This extension is designed to enhance the cash flow of small enterprises and encourage further economic activity among local businesses. Additionally, the budget includes investments to support the mental and financial well-being of small business owners, recognising the unique challenges they face and bolstering the resources available to them for sustainable operation. Access to affordable medicines The budget allocates up to $3 billion to reduce the maximum PBS co-payments. This includes a one-year freeze on the maximum patient co-payment for everyone with a Medicare card and a five-year freeze for pensioners and other concession cardholders, ensuring that no pensioner or concession card holder will pay more than $7.70 for PBS-listed medications until 2030. … And an increase to health funding The budget allocates $888.1 million to expand mental health services. This includes funding for new and existing programs that provide critical support for individuals facing mental health challenges. An additional $2.2 billion is directed towards improving the aged care system, and investments are made in strengthening Medicare with a focus on urgent care clinics, reducing hospital admissions, and supporting regional and remote health services. This expansion aims to provide wider access to necessary health services, significantly improving health outcomes and making healthcare more affordable and accessible to more Australians. A 10% increase to Commonwealth Rent Assistance In response to the housing affordability crisis, the budget increases Commonwealth Rent Assistance by 10%, benefiting nearly 1 million households. This follows a 15% increase from the previous year, marking a substantial boost to aid renters, especially given the rising rental market costs. Housing affordability The government is investing $6.2 billion in new housing initiatives to tackle affordability and accessibility. This funding supports the construction of more homes, including affordable and social housing options, addressing critical housing shortages and supporting community infrastructure development. The 2024-25 Federal Budget is strategically focused on alleviating financial pressure through targeted support measures. By understanding and applying these benefits, Australian households can better navigate the challenges of rising living costs. For tailored advice on how to adjust your financial plan in light of the new budget measures, consider consulting with a financial adviser or accountant. They can help you understand the specific impacts on your personal finances and strategise accordingly. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice. 

Market crashes: The good, the bad and the ugly

13 January, 202117 September, 2021 Updated on17 September, 2021 Economy, Investing

Just as night follows day, it seems part of the regular cycle of the world’s share markets that market crashes and falling prices follow good times and rising prices. The impact of the COVID-19 Global Pandemic has been typical of such downturns, prompting a 35 per cent sell off in world share markets and a dramatic fall in economic activity. For many, it has prompted memories of other equally, and sometimes more devastating, downturns in the world’s share markets. The most famous was “Black Thursday” in 1929, which led to an 80 per cent collapse in share prices and sparked the Great Depression, lasting for more than 10 years. What caused it? The wild excesses of the roaring twenties when consumer confidence was at a record high and the introduction of margin loans, where people could borrow up to 80 per cent of the value of shares. This created a classic investment bubble, where optimism overwhelmed caution, and people started buying shares with the mistaken belief they would always increase in value. A drop in agricultural production due to droughts and a fall in economic production caused a sudden reversal in sentiment. A similar situation occurred 60 years later in 1987 where panic selling on Black Monday wiped approximately 30 per cent from the value of the key US market index, the Dow Jones – its biggest one-day fall. It put an end to the ‘Greed is Good’ mentality of the eighties and prompted a review of the relatively new, computerised share trading systems. Yet it seems investor’s memories are short. Not long after this, markets got caught up with a new investment bubble prompted by the development and growth of the Internet. Companies raced to find their place online, and suddenly, all Internet companies were considered a sure bet. This speculative buying ran out of steam when the Dot Com Bubble finally burst in 2000, wiping 45 per cent off the value of shares. Whilst sharing commonalities with previous crashes, the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, was also in many ways unique. It was the direct result of dodgy lending practices in the US housing market, which created a toxic class of home loans, commonly referred to as sub-prime loans. Typically, these lenders ignored the individual’s ability to repay the loans and instead focused on the belief property prices would continue to rise, and there would always be people prepared to rent these properties. It created a typical investment bubble in the US housing market. Eventually, people found they could not meet their repayments, nor could they sell the properties held as securities. Causing enormous problems within the US banking system and the collapse of several international banks. The lesson to be learnt from all these devastating crashes is that while no two were the same, they were all similar in nature. All were created by exaggerated investor beliefs that prices would never fall. Therefore, it is essential to think carefully before investing, ensuring each investment is made with a long-term mindset, and that sudden market corrections do not lead to panic selling. As history has shown, market downturns follow upturns, but as long as the investment is fundamentally sound, it will fully recover any lost value. Contact us today for sound investment and financial advice to withstand market volatility. The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice.

Post Christmas Sales – A Survival Guide

20 December, 202314 December, 2023 Updated on14 December, 2023 Budgeting, Education, Finance

We’ve all experienced it… the undeniable allure of post-Christmas sales. No sooner has Christmas wrapped up for the year than the frenzy of Boxing Day Sales descends upon us. Every store window beckons, and our inboxes overflow with promises of unbeatable discounts. But before you indulge in some festive leftovers and make a beeline for the air-conditioned wonderland of sales, let’s take a moment to pause and ponder… Is that shiny, discounted gadget truly a necessity? Do those new outfits genuinely add value to your wardrobe? Or might there be a wiser way to allocate your hard-earned money? The Allure and Reality of Post-Christmas Sales The holiday season often leaves our wallets feeling lighter than usual. Australia’s festive spending reached an eye-watering $74.5 billion in 2022, marking an 8.6% increase from the previous year, according to the Australian Retailers Association. And Boxing Day? A whopping $1.23 billion was spent in just 24 hours! These figures aren’t just numbers; they paint a picture of our collective weakness for a good holiday sale. But here’s the other side of the coin: while sales can offer genuine bargains, they also come with pitfalls. The risk of accumulating more debt is a very real reality for many shoppers, especially with credit cards already stretched thin from holiday shopping. And let’s face it, impulse purchases can often lead to buyer’s remorse and an overstuffed home. The Merits of Post-Christmas Sales While the post-Christmas sales period often comes with warnings of overspending, it’s not all doom and gloom. When approached with a well-thought-out strategy, these sales can be a great opportunity to secure essential items—be it electronics, clothing, or household goods—at a fraction of their original prices. But how can one truly benefit without falling into the common traps? The key lies in being discerning. With a bit of planning and restraint, the post-Christmas sales can be both enjoyable and economically rewarding. Smart Money Moves Beyond Sales It’s easy to forget about your bigger picture goals when there are neon signs screaming discounts of 50% OFF or more! But remember, every dollar spent is a dollar less saved… or put towards those bigger picture goals. Before you fall prey to the post-Christmas sales, consider these alternatives: Save for a Rainy Day: Life is unpredictable. Having a safety net can make all the difference. Debt Reduction: Free yourself from the burden of debt, by paying down your credit cards and/or any loans you have. Invest: Think stocks, bonds, or other avenues to grow your wealth. (Hello Financial Freedom!) Financial Goals: Would you rather a new outfit? Or to be one step closer to that dream holiday, new car, or first home? Post-Christmas sales can be both a treasure trove and a minefield. The choice is yours. This festive season don’t succumb blindly to the allure of holiday sale discounts. Instead, either purchase your “need to have” items (remember, be discerning here!), or skip the sales completely and opt to put the money towards your financial goals! Here’s to spending wisely, and a financially savvy new year! The information provided in this article is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice. 

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